Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea
The characterization of future wave-storms and their relationship to large-scale climate can provide useful information for environmental or urban planning at coastal areas. A hybrid methodology (process-based and statistical) was used to characterize the extreme wave-climate at the northwestern Bla...
Published in: | Water |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
MDPI AG
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020221 https://doaj.org/article/dccb3a3e138b4d318bdc33b0f361a40c |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:dccb3a3e138b4d318bdc33b0f361a40c |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:dccb3a3e138b4d318bdc33b0f361a40c 2023-05-15T17:36:54+02:00 Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea Jue Lin-Ye Manuel García-León Vicente Gràcia M. Isabel Ortego Adrian Stanica Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla 2018-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020221 https://doaj.org/article/dccb3a3e138b4d318bdc33b0f361a40c EN eng MDPI AG http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/2/221 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441 2073-4441 doi:10.3390/w10020221 https://doaj.org/article/dccb3a3e138b4d318bdc33b0f361a40c Water, Vol 10, Iss 2, p 221 (2018) SWAN storminess climate change climate patterns Black Sea copula generalized additive model Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020221 2022-12-31T06:00:19Z The characterization of future wave-storms and their relationship to large-scale climate can provide useful information for environmental or urban planning at coastal areas. A hybrid methodology (process-based and statistical) was used to characterize the extreme wave-climate at the northwestern Black Sea. The Simulating WAve Nearshore spectral wave-model was employed to produce wave-climate projections, forced with wind-fields projections for two climate change scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-stationary multivariate statistical model was built, considering significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm, as well as storm total energy and storm-duration. The climate indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Pattern, and Scandinavian Pattern have been used as covariates to link to storminess, wave-storm threshold, and wave-storm components in the statistical model. The results show that, first, under both RCP scenarios, the mean values of significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm remain fairly constant over the 21st century. Second, the mean value of storm total energy is more markedly increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario than in the RCP8.5 scenario. Third, the mean value of storm-duration is increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario, as opposed to the constant trend in the RCP8.5 scenario. The variance of each wave-storm component increases when the corresponding mean value increases under both RCP scenarios. During the 21st century, the East Atlantic Pattern and changes in its pattern have a special influence on wave-storm conditions. Apart from the individual characteristics of each wave-storm component, wave-storms with both extreme energy and duration can be expected in the 21st century. The dependence between all the wave-storm components is moderate, but grows with time and, in general, the severe emission scenario of RCP8.5 presents less dependence between storm total energy and storm-duration and ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Water 10 2 221 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
SWAN storminess climate change climate patterns Black Sea copula generalized additive model Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 |
spellingShingle |
SWAN storminess climate change climate patterns Black Sea copula generalized additive model Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 Jue Lin-Ye Manuel García-León Vicente Gràcia M. Isabel Ortego Adrian Stanica Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea |
topic_facet |
SWAN storminess climate change climate patterns Black Sea copula generalized additive model Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 |
description |
The characterization of future wave-storms and their relationship to large-scale climate can provide useful information for environmental or urban planning at coastal areas. A hybrid methodology (process-based and statistical) was used to characterize the extreme wave-climate at the northwestern Black Sea. The Simulating WAve Nearshore spectral wave-model was employed to produce wave-climate projections, forced with wind-fields projections for two climate change scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-stationary multivariate statistical model was built, considering significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm, as well as storm total energy and storm-duration. The climate indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Pattern, and Scandinavian Pattern have been used as covariates to link to storminess, wave-storm threshold, and wave-storm components in the statistical model. The results show that, first, under both RCP scenarios, the mean values of significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm remain fairly constant over the 21st century. Second, the mean value of storm total energy is more markedly increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario than in the RCP8.5 scenario. Third, the mean value of storm-duration is increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario, as opposed to the constant trend in the RCP8.5 scenario. The variance of each wave-storm component increases when the corresponding mean value increases under both RCP scenarios. During the 21st century, the East Atlantic Pattern and changes in its pattern have a special influence on wave-storm conditions. Apart from the individual characteristics of each wave-storm component, wave-storms with both extreme energy and duration can be expected in the 21st century. The dependence between all the wave-storm components is moderate, but grows with time and, in general, the severe emission scenario of RCP8.5 presents less dependence between storm total energy and storm-duration and ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jue Lin-Ye Manuel García-León Vicente Gràcia M. Isabel Ortego Adrian Stanica Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla |
author_facet |
Jue Lin-Ye Manuel García-León Vicente Gràcia M. Isabel Ortego Adrian Stanica Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla |
author_sort |
Jue Lin-Ye |
title |
Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea |
title_short |
Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea |
title_full |
Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea |
title_fullStr |
Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea |
title_sort |
multivariate hybrid modelling of future wave-storms at the northwestern black sea |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020221 https://doaj.org/article/dccb3a3e138b4d318bdc33b0f361a40c |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Water, Vol 10, Iss 2, p 221 (2018) |
op_relation |
http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/2/221 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441 2073-4441 doi:10.3390/w10020221 https://doaj.org/article/dccb3a3e138b4d318bdc33b0f361a40c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020221 |
container_title |
Water |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
221 |
_version_ |
1766136537392611328 |