Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for 6-Month Societal Costs in Older Community Care-Recipients in Multiple Countries; the IBenC Study

• Published in: Health Services Insights
• Main Authors: Lisanne I van Lier, Judith E Bosmans, Henriëtte G van der Roest, Martijn W Heymans, Vjenka Garms-Homolová, Anja Declercq, Pálmi V Jónsson, Hein PJ van Hout
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: SAGE Publishing 2020
• Subjects: Medicine (General); R5-920; Public aspects of medicine; RA1-1270; Iceland
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1177/1178632920980462; https://doaj.org/article/dc403dd31ba74bc9a8f92ae38695baa3

This study aims to develop and validate a prediction model of societal costs during a period of 6-months in older community care-recipients across multiple European countries. Participants were older community care-recipients from 5 European countries. The outcome measure was mean 6-months total societal costs of resource utilisation (healthcare and informal care). Potential predictors included sociodemographic characteristics, functional limitations, clinical conditions, and diseases/disorders. The model was developed by performing Linear Mixed Models with a random intercept for the effect of country and validated by an internal-external validation procedure. Living alone, caregiver distress, (I)ADL impairment, required level of care support, health instability, presence of pain, behavioural problems, urinary incontinence and multimorbidity significantly predicted societal costs during 6 months. The model explained 32% of the variation within societal costs and showed good calibration in Iceland, Finland and Germany. Minor model adaptations improved model performance in The Netherland and Italy. The results can provide a valuable orientation for policymakers to better understand cost development among older community care-recipients. Despite substantial differences of countries’ care systems, a validated cross-national set of key predictors could be identified.