Surface hazards in North-west Europe following sudden stratospheric warming events
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) have been linked to surface temperature anomalies, but how these connect to changes in the likelihood of specific weather extremes and their associated weather patterns remains uncertain. While, on average, it is true that cold surface temperatures follow SSW eve...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:dc3464e1da574259acca62d9fbeeb28c 2023-09-05T13:21:44+02:00 Surface hazards in North-west Europe following sudden stratospheric warming events Richard J Hall Dann M Mitchell William J M Seviour Corwin J Wright 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd0c3 https://doaj.org/article/dc3464e1da574259acca62d9fbeeb28c EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd0c3 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acd0c3 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/dc3464e1da574259acca62d9fbeeb28c Environmental Research Letters, Vol 18, Iss 6, p 064002 (2023) hazards sudden stratospheric warmings surface weather impacts weather patterns Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd0c3 2023-08-13T00:36:58Z Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) have been linked to surface temperature anomalies, but how these connect to changes in the likelihood of specific weather extremes and their associated weather patterns remains uncertain. While, on average, it is true that cold surface temperatures follow SSW events, particularly in Northern Europe, there is considerable event-to-event variability. Over the British Isles and Central Europe, only around 45% of SSWs are followed by a colder than average period and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, cautioning against an over-generalised approach to surface anomalies associated with SSWs. Focussing on more hazardous weather, which in winter is associated with cold extremes, we use reanalysis data to consider how SSWs impact temperature-related hazards; namely the frequency of snowy days, frost days and spells of extreme cold weather in 12 major European cities. In general, SSWs are associated with an increased risk of snow across most of western Europe, and that this is particularly significant in milder, more maritime locations such as London where in reanalysis, snowfall days are 40% more likely after an SSW. However, there is considerable variation in surface temperature anomalies between SSW events; the third of SSWs with the warmest surface anomalies are statistically more likely to have a decreased risk of snow, frost and persistent cold spells compared with non-SSW time periods. These warmer events are associated with a different temperature anomaly pattern, which is consistent in both reanalysis data and large ensemble CMIP6 models. We further show that these warm surface temperature anomaly SSWs are becoming more frequent, a trend which is consistent with background global warming. The varied surface anomalies associated with SSWs highlights the need to study their impacts in a probabilistic sense, and motivates further work to enable better prediction of the impacts of a given event. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 18 6 064002 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
hazards sudden stratospheric warmings surface weather impacts weather patterns Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
hazards sudden stratospheric warmings surface weather impacts weather patterns Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Richard J Hall Dann M Mitchell William J M Seviour Corwin J Wright Surface hazards in North-west Europe following sudden stratospheric warming events |
topic_facet |
hazards sudden stratospheric warmings surface weather impacts weather patterns Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) have been linked to surface temperature anomalies, but how these connect to changes in the likelihood of specific weather extremes and their associated weather patterns remains uncertain. While, on average, it is true that cold surface temperatures follow SSW events, particularly in Northern Europe, there is considerable event-to-event variability. Over the British Isles and Central Europe, only around 45% of SSWs are followed by a colder than average period and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, cautioning against an over-generalised approach to surface anomalies associated with SSWs. Focussing on more hazardous weather, which in winter is associated with cold extremes, we use reanalysis data to consider how SSWs impact temperature-related hazards; namely the frequency of snowy days, frost days and spells of extreme cold weather in 12 major European cities. In general, SSWs are associated with an increased risk of snow across most of western Europe, and that this is particularly significant in milder, more maritime locations such as London where in reanalysis, snowfall days are 40% more likely after an SSW. However, there is considerable variation in surface temperature anomalies between SSW events; the third of SSWs with the warmest surface anomalies are statistically more likely to have a decreased risk of snow, frost and persistent cold spells compared with non-SSW time periods. These warmer events are associated with a different temperature anomaly pattern, which is consistent in both reanalysis data and large ensemble CMIP6 models. We further show that these warm surface temperature anomaly SSWs are becoming more frequent, a trend which is consistent with background global warming. The varied surface anomalies associated with SSWs highlights the need to study their impacts in a probabilistic sense, and motivates further work to enable better prediction of the impacts of a given event. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Richard J Hall Dann M Mitchell William J M Seviour Corwin J Wright |
author_facet |
Richard J Hall Dann M Mitchell William J M Seviour Corwin J Wright |
author_sort |
Richard J Hall |
title |
Surface hazards in North-west Europe following sudden stratospheric warming events |
title_short |
Surface hazards in North-west Europe following sudden stratospheric warming events |
title_full |
Surface hazards in North-west Europe following sudden stratospheric warming events |
title_fullStr |
Surface hazards in North-west Europe following sudden stratospheric warming events |
title_full_unstemmed |
Surface hazards in North-west Europe following sudden stratospheric warming events |
title_sort |
surface hazards in north-west europe following sudden stratospheric warming events |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd0c3 https://doaj.org/article/dc3464e1da574259acca62d9fbeeb28c |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 18, Iss 6, p 064002 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd0c3 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acd0c3 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/dc3464e1da574259acca62d9fbeeb28c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd0c3 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
064002 |
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1776202315064147968 |