Effects of enhanced downwelling of NO x on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century
Ozone is expected to fully recover from the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere decelerates ozone loss reactions and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distri...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:dbe3c5dbb54c4c58803150b113af52d6 2023-05-15T13:47:42+02:00 Effects of enhanced downwelling of NO x on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century V. Maliniemi H. Nesse Tyssøy C. Smith-Johnsen P. Arsenovic D. R. Marsh 2021-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 https://doaj.org/article/dbe3c5dbb54c4c58803150b113af52d6 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/11041/2021/acp-21-11041-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/dbe3c5dbb54c4c58803150b113af52d6 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 21, Pp 11041-11052 (2021) Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 2022-12-31T06:38:14Z Ozone is expected to fully recover from the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere decelerates ozone loss reactions and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, the equatorial upper stratosphere has roughly 0.5 to 1.0 ppm more ozone in the scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to the conservative scenario. Polar ozone levels exceed those in the pre-CFC era in scenarios that have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere is an exception, where different scenarios all have similar levels of ozone during winter, which do not exceed pre-CFC levels. Our results show that this is due to excess nitrogen oxides ( NO x ) descending faster from above in the stronger scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. NO x in the polar thermosphere and upper mesosphere is mainly produced by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) and partly by solar UV via transport from low latitudes. Our results indicate that the thermospheric/upper mesospheric NO x will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution and could potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the upper stratosphere. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 21 14 11041 11052 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 V. Maliniemi H. Nesse Tyssøy C. Smith-Johnsen P. Arsenovic D. R. Marsh Effects of enhanced downwelling of NO x on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
topic_facet |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
description |
Ozone is expected to fully recover from the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere decelerates ozone loss reactions and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, the equatorial upper stratosphere has roughly 0.5 to 1.0 ppm more ozone in the scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to the conservative scenario. Polar ozone levels exceed those in the pre-CFC era in scenarios that have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere is an exception, where different scenarios all have similar levels of ozone during winter, which do not exceed pre-CFC levels. Our results show that this is due to excess nitrogen oxides ( NO x ) descending faster from above in the stronger scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. NO x in the polar thermosphere and upper mesosphere is mainly produced by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) and partly by solar UV via transport from low latitudes. Our results indicate that the thermospheric/upper mesospheric NO x will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution and could potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the upper stratosphere. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
V. Maliniemi H. Nesse Tyssøy C. Smith-Johnsen P. Arsenovic D. R. Marsh |
author_facet |
V. Maliniemi H. Nesse Tyssøy C. Smith-Johnsen P. Arsenovic D. R. Marsh |
author_sort |
V. Maliniemi |
title |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NO x on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_short |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NO x on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_full |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NO x on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NO x on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NO x on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_sort |
effects of enhanced downwelling of no x on antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 https://doaj.org/article/dbe3c5dbb54c4c58803150b113af52d6 |
geographic |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 21, Pp 11041-11052 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/11041/2021/acp-21-11041-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/dbe3c5dbb54c4c58803150b113af52d6 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
21 |
container_issue |
14 |
container_start_page |
11041 |
op_container_end_page |
11052 |
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1766247742003216384 |