Future sea ice weakening amplifies wind-driven trends in surface stress and Arctic Ocean spin-up
Abstract Arctic sea ice mediates atmosphere-ocean momentum transfer, which drives upper ocean circulation. How Arctic Ocean surface stress and velocity respond to sea ice decline and changing winds under global warming is unclear. Here we show that state-of-the-art climate models consistently predic...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:db40119550b54d02931f05e1241ee302 2024-09-15T17:53:13+00:00 Future sea ice weakening amplifies wind-driven trends in surface stress and Arctic Ocean spin-up Morven Muilwijk Tore Hattermann Torge Martin Mats A. Granskog 2024-08-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-50874-0 https://doaj.org/article/db40119550b54d02931f05e1241ee302 EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-50874-0 https://doaj.org/toc/2041-1723 doi:10.1038/s41467-024-50874-0 2041-1723 https://doaj.org/article/db40119550b54d02931f05e1241ee302 Nature Communications, Vol 15, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2024) Science Q article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-50874-0 2024-08-19T14:56:42Z Abstract Arctic sea ice mediates atmosphere-ocean momentum transfer, which drives upper ocean circulation. How Arctic Ocean surface stress and velocity respond to sea ice decline and changing winds under global warming is unclear. Here we show that state-of-the-art climate models consistently predict an increase in future (2015–2100) ocean surface stress in response to increased surface wind speed, declining sea ice area, and a weaker ice pack. While wind speeds increase most during fall (+2.2% per decade), surface stress rises most in winter (+5.1% per decade) being amplified by reduced internal ice stress. This is because, as sea ice concentration decreases in a warming climate, less energy is dissipated by the weaker ice pack, resulting in more momentum transfer to the ocean. The increased momentum transfer accelerates Arctic Ocean surface velocity (+31–47% by 2100), leading to elevated ocean kinetic energy and enhanced vertical mixing. The enhanced surface stress also increases the Beaufort Gyre Ekman convergence and freshwater content, impacting Arctic marine ecosystems and the downstream ocean circulation. The impacts of projected changes are profound, but different and simplified model formulations of atmosphere-ice-ocean momentum transfer introduce considerable uncertainty, highlighting the need for improved coupling in climate models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Ocean Global warming ice pack Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Nature Communications 15 1 |
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Science Q Morven Muilwijk Tore Hattermann Torge Martin Mats A. Granskog Future sea ice weakening amplifies wind-driven trends in surface stress and Arctic Ocean spin-up |
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Science Q |
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Abstract Arctic sea ice mediates atmosphere-ocean momentum transfer, which drives upper ocean circulation. How Arctic Ocean surface stress and velocity respond to sea ice decline and changing winds under global warming is unclear. Here we show that state-of-the-art climate models consistently predict an increase in future (2015–2100) ocean surface stress in response to increased surface wind speed, declining sea ice area, and a weaker ice pack. While wind speeds increase most during fall (+2.2% per decade), surface stress rises most in winter (+5.1% per decade) being amplified by reduced internal ice stress. This is because, as sea ice concentration decreases in a warming climate, less energy is dissipated by the weaker ice pack, resulting in more momentum transfer to the ocean. The increased momentum transfer accelerates Arctic Ocean surface velocity (+31–47% by 2100), leading to elevated ocean kinetic energy and enhanced vertical mixing. The enhanced surface stress also increases the Beaufort Gyre Ekman convergence and freshwater content, impacting Arctic marine ecosystems and the downstream ocean circulation. The impacts of projected changes are profound, but different and simplified model formulations of atmosphere-ice-ocean momentum transfer introduce considerable uncertainty, highlighting the need for improved coupling in climate models. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Morven Muilwijk Tore Hattermann Torge Martin Mats A. Granskog |
author_facet |
Morven Muilwijk Tore Hattermann Torge Martin Mats A. Granskog |
author_sort |
Morven Muilwijk |
title |
Future sea ice weakening amplifies wind-driven trends in surface stress and Arctic Ocean spin-up |
title_short |
Future sea ice weakening amplifies wind-driven trends in surface stress and Arctic Ocean spin-up |
title_full |
Future sea ice weakening amplifies wind-driven trends in surface stress and Arctic Ocean spin-up |
title_fullStr |
Future sea ice weakening amplifies wind-driven trends in surface stress and Arctic Ocean spin-up |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future sea ice weakening amplifies wind-driven trends in surface stress and Arctic Ocean spin-up |
title_sort |
future sea ice weakening amplifies wind-driven trends in surface stress and arctic ocean spin-up |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-50874-0 https://doaj.org/article/db40119550b54d02931f05e1241ee302 |
genre |
Arctic Ocean Global warming ice pack Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Ocean Global warming ice pack Sea ice |
op_source |
Nature Communications, Vol 15, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-50874-0 https://doaj.org/toc/2041-1723 doi:10.1038/s41467-024-50874-0 2041-1723 https://doaj.org/article/db40119550b54d02931f05e1241ee302 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-50874-0 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1810295233413382144 |