CMIP5 temperature biases and 21st century warming around the Antarctic coast
Projections of ice-sheet mass balance require regional ocean warming projections derived from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). However, the coarse resolution of AOGCMs: (1) may lead to systematic or AOGCM-specific biases and (2) makes it difficult to identify relevant water mass...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:dafb044b7b924852902d77fd6b7c6073 2023-05-15T13:29:29+02:00 CMIP5 temperature biases and 21st century warming around the Antarctic coast Christopher M. Little Nathan M. Urban 2016-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2016.25 https://doaj.org/article/dafb044b7b924852902d77fd6b7c6073 EN eng Cambridge University Press https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0260305516000252/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0260-3055 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5644 doi:10.1017/aog.2016.25 0260-3055 1727-5644 https://doaj.org/article/dafb044b7b924852902d77fd6b7c6073 Annals of Glaciology, Vol 57, Pp 69-78 (2016) Antarctic glaciology climate models ice/ocean interactions ice sheet mass balance Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2016.25 2023-03-12T01:31:57Z Projections of ice-sheet mass balance require regional ocean warming projections derived from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). However, the coarse resolution of AOGCMs: (1) may lead to systematic or AOGCM-specific biases and (2) makes it difficult to identify relevant water masses. Here, we employ a large-scale metric of Antarctic Shelf Bottom Water (ASBW) to investigate circum-Antarctic temperature biases and warming projections in 19 different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) AOGCMs forced with two different ‘representative concentration pathways’ (RCPs). For high-emissions RCP 8.5, the ensemble mean 21st century ASBW warming is 0.66, 0.74 and 0.58°C for the Amundsen, Ross and Weddell Seas (AS, RS and WS), respectively. RCP 2.6 ensemble mean projections are substantially lower: 0.21, 0.26, and 0.19°C. All distributions of regional ASBW warming are positively skewed; for RCP 8.5, four AOGCMs project warming of greater than 1.8°C in the RS. Across the ensemble, there is a strong, RCP-independent, correlation between WS and RS warming. AS warming is more closely linked to warming in the Southern Ocean. We discuss possible physical mechanisms underlying the spatial patterns of warming and highlight implications of these results on strategies for forcing ice-sheet mass balance projections. Article in Journal/Newspaper Annals of Glaciology Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Southern Ocean Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Weddell Annals of Glaciology 57 73 69 78 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Antarctic glaciology climate models ice/ocean interactions ice sheet mass balance Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Antarctic glaciology climate models ice/ocean interactions ice sheet mass balance Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Christopher M. Little Nathan M. Urban CMIP5 temperature biases and 21st century warming around the Antarctic coast |
topic_facet |
Antarctic glaciology climate models ice/ocean interactions ice sheet mass balance Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Projections of ice-sheet mass balance require regional ocean warming projections derived from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). However, the coarse resolution of AOGCMs: (1) may lead to systematic or AOGCM-specific biases and (2) makes it difficult to identify relevant water masses. Here, we employ a large-scale metric of Antarctic Shelf Bottom Water (ASBW) to investigate circum-Antarctic temperature biases and warming projections in 19 different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) AOGCMs forced with two different ‘representative concentration pathways’ (RCPs). For high-emissions RCP 8.5, the ensemble mean 21st century ASBW warming is 0.66, 0.74 and 0.58°C for the Amundsen, Ross and Weddell Seas (AS, RS and WS), respectively. RCP 2.6 ensemble mean projections are substantially lower: 0.21, 0.26, and 0.19°C. All distributions of regional ASBW warming are positively skewed; for RCP 8.5, four AOGCMs project warming of greater than 1.8°C in the RS. Across the ensemble, there is a strong, RCP-independent, correlation between WS and RS warming. AS warming is more closely linked to warming in the Southern Ocean. We discuss possible physical mechanisms underlying the spatial patterns of warming and highlight implications of these results on strategies for forcing ice-sheet mass balance projections. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Christopher M. Little Nathan M. Urban |
author_facet |
Christopher M. Little Nathan M. Urban |
author_sort |
Christopher M. Little |
title |
CMIP5 temperature biases and 21st century warming around the Antarctic coast |
title_short |
CMIP5 temperature biases and 21st century warming around the Antarctic coast |
title_full |
CMIP5 temperature biases and 21st century warming around the Antarctic coast |
title_fullStr |
CMIP5 temperature biases and 21st century warming around the Antarctic coast |
title_full_unstemmed |
CMIP5 temperature biases and 21st century warming around the Antarctic coast |
title_sort |
cmip5 temperature biases and 21st century warming around the antarctic coast |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2016.25 https://doaj.org/article/dafb044b7b924852902d77fd6b7c6073 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Weddell |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Weddell |
genre |
Annals of Glaciology Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Annals of Glaciology Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Annals of Glaciology, Vol 57, Pp 69-78 (2016) |
op_relation |
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0260305516000252/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0260-3055 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5644 doi:10.1017/aog.2016.25 0260-3055 1727-5644 https://doaj.org/article/dafb044b7b924852902d77fd6b7c6073 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2016.25 |
container_title |
Annals of Glaciology |
container_volume |
57 |
container_issue |
73 |
container_start_page |
69 |
op_container_end_page |
78 |
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1766000924637003776 |