Assessing the impact of ambient temperature on the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China: New insight from the disease severity and burden.
Background The association between the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and ambient temperature has been well documented. Although the severity of symptoms is an important indicator of disease burden and varies significantly across cases, it usually was ignored in previous studies,...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:dace1fb101034c8199f7c552349ff4a4 2023-05-15T15:15:56+02:00 Assessing the impact of ambient temperature on the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China: New insight from the disease severity and burden. Zhicheng Du Wangjian Zhang Shicheng Yu Shao Lin Yuantao Hao 2022-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010470 https://doaj.org/article/dace1fb101034c8199f7c552349ff4a4 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010470 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010470 https://doaj.org/article/dace1fb101034c8199f7c552349ff4a4 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 16, Iss 6, p e0010470 (2022) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010470 2022-12-31T00:24:31Z Background The association between the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and ambient temperature has been well documented. Although the severity of symptoms is an important indicator of disease burden and varies significantly across cases, it usually was ignored in previous studies, potentially leading to biased estimates of the health impact of temperature. Methods We estimated the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) by considering the severity of symptoms for each HFMD case reported during 2010-2012 in Guangdong and used distributed lag-nonlinear models to estimate the association between the daily average temperature and daily DALY of HFMD cases at the city-level. We investigated the potential effect modifiers on the pathway between temperature and DALY and pooled city-specific estimates to a provincial association using a meta-regression. The overall impact of temperature was further evaluated by estimates of DALYs that could be attributed to HFMD. Results The overall cumulative effect of daily mean temperature on the DALY of HFMD showed an inverse-U shape, with the maximum effect estimated to be β = 0.0331 (95%CI: 0.0199-0.0463) DALY at 23.8°C. Overall, a total of 6.432 (95%CI: 3.942-8.885) DALYs (attributable fraction = 2.721%, 95%CI: 1.660-3.759%) could be attributed to temperature exposure. All the demographic subgroups had a similar trend as the main analysis, while the magnitude of the peak of the temperature impact tended to be higher among the males, those aged ≥3yrs or from the Pear-River Delta region. Additionally, the impact of temperature on DALY elevated significantly with the increasing population density, per capita GDP, and per capita green space in parks. Conclusions Temperature exposure was associated with increased burden of HFMD nonlinearly, with certain groups such as boys and those from areas with greater population density being more vulnerable. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Daly ENVELOPE(63.761,63.761,-67.513,-67.513) PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 16 6 e0010470 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Zhicheng Du Wangjian Zhang Shicheng Yu Shao Lin Yuantao Hao Assessing the impact of ambient temperature on the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China: New insight from the disease severity and burden. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Background The association between the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and ambient temperature has been well documented. Although the severity of symptoms is an important indicator of disease burden and varies significantly across cases, it usually was ignored in previous studies, potentially leading to biased estimates of the health impact of temperature. Methods We estimated the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) by considering the severity of symptoms for each HFMD case reported during 2010-2012 in Guangdong and used distributed lag-nonlinear models to estimate the association between the daily average temperature and daily DALY of HFMD cases at the city-level. We investigated the potential effect modifiers on the pathway between temperature and DALY and pooled city-specific estimates to a provincial association using a meta-regression. The overall impact of temperature was further evaluated by estimates of DALYs that could be attributed to HFMD. Results The overall cumulative effect of daily mean temperature on the DALY of HFMD showed an inverse-U shape, with the maximum effect estimated to be β = 0.0331 (95%CI: 0.0199-0.0463) DALY at 23.8°C. Overall, a total of 6.432 (95%CI: 3.942-8.885) DALYs (attributable fraction = 2.721%, 95%CI: 1.660-3.759%) could be attributed to temperature exposure. All the demographic subgroups had a similar trend as the main analysis, while the magnitude of the peak of the temperature impact tended to be higher among the males, those aged ≥3yrs or from the Pear-River Delta region. Additionally, the impact of temperature on DALY elevated significantly with the increasing population density, per capita GDP, and per capita green space in parks. Conclusions Temperature exposure was associated with increased burden of HFMD nonlinearly, with certain groups such as boys and those from areas with greater population density being more vulnerable. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zhicheng Du Wangjian Zhang Shicheng Yu Shao Lin Yuantao Hao |
author_facet |
Zhicheng Du Wangjian Zhang Shicheng Yu Shao Lin Yuantao Hao |
author_sort |
Zhicheng Du |
title |
Assessing the impact of ambient temperature on the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China: New insight from the disease severity and burden. |
title_short |
Assessing the impact of ambient temperature on the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China: New insight from the disease severity and burden. |
title_full |
Assessing the impact of ambient temperature on the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China: New insight from the disease severity and burden. |
title_fullStr |
Assessing the impact of ambient temperature on the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China: New insight from the disease severity and burden. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing the impact of ambient temperature on the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China: New insight from the disease severity and burden. |
title_sort |
assessing the impact of ambient temperature on the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease in guangdong, china: new insight from the disease severity and burden. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010470 https://doaj.org/article/dace1fb101034c8199f7c552349ff4a4 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(63.761,63.761,-67.513,-67.513) |
geographic |
Arctic Daly |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Daly |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 16, Iss 6, p e0010470 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010470 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010470 https://doaj.org/article/dace1fb101034c8199f7c552349ff4a4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010470 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
e0010470 |
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1766346255563227136 |