Exploring the percentage of COVID-19 cases reported in the community in Canada and associated case fatality ratios
While surveillance can identify changes in COVID-19 transmission patterns over time and space, sections of the population at risk, and the efficacy of public health measures, reported cases of COVID-19 are generally understood to only capture a subset of the actual number of cases. Our primary objec...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.008 https://doaj.org/article/d9c97b7656304257b66eb7aebb2a2a43 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:d9c97b7656304257b66eb7aebb2a2a43 2024-09-15T18:20:21+00:00 Exploring the percentage of COVID-19 cases reported in the community in Canada and associated case fatality ratios Brendan P. Dougherty Ben A. Smith Carolee A. Carson Nicholas H. Ogden 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.008 https://doaj.org/article/d9c97b7656304257b66eb7aebb2a2a43 EN eng KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720301044 https://doaj.org/toc/2468-0427 2468-0427 doi:10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.008 https://doaj.org/article/d9c97b7656304257b66eb7aebb2a2a43 Infectious Disease Modelling, Vol 6, Iss , Pp 123-132 (2021) SARS-CoV-2 Underestimation Coronavirus disease Long term care facilities Case fatality ratio Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.008 2024-08-05T17:49:31Z While surveillance can identify changes in COVID-19 transmission patterns over time and space, sections of the population at risk, and the efficacy of public health measures, reported cases of COVID-19 are generally understood to only capture a subset of the actual number of cases. Our primary objective was to estimate the percentage of cases reported in the general community, considered as those that occurred outside of long-term care facilities (LTCFs), in specific provinces and Canada as a whole. We applied a methodology using the delay-adjusted case fatality ratio (CFR) to all cases and deaths, as well as those representing the general community. Our second objective was to assess whether the assumed CFR (mean = 1.38%) was appropriate for calculating underestimation of cases in Canada. Estimates were developed for the period from March 11th, 2020 to September 16th, 2020. Estimates of the percentage of cases reported (PrCR) and CFR varied spatially and temporally across Canada. For the majority of provinces, and for Canada as a whole, the PrCR increased through the early stages of the pandemic. The estimated PrCR in general community settings for all of Canada increased from 18.1% to 69.0% throughout the entire study period. Estimates were greater when considering only those data from outside of LTCFs. The estimated upper bound CFR in general community settings for all of Canada decreased from 9.07% on March 11th, 2020 to 2.00% on September 16th, 2020. Therefore, the true CFR in the general community in Canada was likely less than 2% on September 16th. According to our analysis, some provinces, such as Alberta, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Saskatchewan reported a greater percentage of cases as of September 16th, compared to British Columbia, Ontario, and Québec. This could be due to differences in testing rates and criteria, demographics, socioeconomic factors, race, and access to healthcare among the provinces. Further investigation into these factors could reveal differences among ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Newfoundland Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Infectious Disease Modelling 6 123 132 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
SARS-CoV-2 Underestimation Coronavirus disease Long term care facilities Case fatality ratio Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
spellingShingle |
SARS-CoV-2 Underestimation Coronavirus disease Long term care facilities Case fatality ratio Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Brendan P. Dougherty Ben A. Smith Carolee A. Carson Nicholas H. Ogden Exploring the percentage of COVID-19 cases reported in the community in Canada and associated case fatality ratios |
topic_facet |
SARS-CoV-2 Underestimation Coronavirus disease Long term care facilities Case fatality ratio Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
description |
While surveillance can identify changes in COVID-19 transmission patterns over time and space, sections of the population at risk, and the efficacy of public health measures, reported cases of COVID-19 are generally understood to only capture a subset of the actual number of cases. Our primary objective was to estimate the percentage of cases reported in the general community, considered as those that occurred outside of long-term care facilities (LTCFs), in specific provinces and Canada as a whole. We applied a methodology using the delay-adjusted case fatality ratio (CFR) to all cases and deaths, as well as those representing the general community. Our second objective was to assess whether the assumed CFR (mean = 1.38%) was appropriate for calculating underestimation of cases in Canada. Estimates were developed for the period from March 11th, 2020 to September 16th, 2020. Estimates of the percentage of cases reported (PrCR) and CFR varied spatially and temporally across Canada. For the majority of provinces, and for Canada as a whole, the PrCR increased through the early stages of the pandemic. The estimated PrCR in general community settings for all of Canada increased from 18.1% to 69.0% throughout the entire study period. Estimates were greater when considering only those data from outside of LTCFs. The estimated upper bound CFR in general community settings for all of Canada decreased from 9.07% on March 11th, 2020 to 2.00% on September 16th, 2020. Therefore, the true CFR in the general community in Canada was likely less than 2% on September 16th. According to our analysis, some provinces, such as Alberta, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Saskatchewan reported a greater percentage of cases as of September 16th, compared to British Columbia, Ontario, and Québec. This could be due to differences in testing rates and criteria, demographics, socioeconomic factors, race, and access to healthcare among the provinces. Further investigation into these factors could reveal differences among ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Brendan P. Dougherty Ben A. Smith Carolee A. Carson Nicholas H. Ogden |
author_facet |
Brendan P. Dougherty Ben A. Smith Carolee A. Carson Nicholas H. Ogden |
author_sort |
Brendan P. Dougherty |
title |
Exploring the percentage of COVID-19 cases reported in the community in Canada and associated case fatality ratios |
title_short |
Exploring the percentage of COVID-19 cases reported in the community in Canada and associated case fatality ratios |
title_full |
Exploring the percentage of COVID-19 cases reported in the community in Canada and associated case fatality ratios |
title_fullStr |
Exploring the percentage of COVID-19 cases reported in the community in Canada and associated case fatality ratios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Exploring the percentage of COVID-19 cases reported in the community in Canada and associated case fatality ratios |
title_sort |
exploring the percentage of covid-19 cases reported in the community in canada and associated case fatality ratios |
publisher |
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.008 https://doaj.org/article/d9c97b7656304257b66eb7aebb2a2a43 |
genre |
Newfoundland |
genre_facet |
Newfoundland |
op_source |
Infectious Disease Modelling, Vol 6, Iss , Pp 123-132 (2021) |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720301044 https://doaj.org/toc/2468-0427 2468-0427 doi:10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.008 https://doaj.org/article/d9c97b7656304257b66eb7aebb2a2a43 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.008 |
container_title |
Infectious Disease Modelling |
container_volume |
6 |
container_start_page |
123 |
op_container_end_page |
132 |
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1810458736619159552 |