Fingerprints of the cosmic ray driven mechanism of the ozone hole
There is long research interest in electron-induced reactions of halogenated molecules. It has been two decades since the cosmic-ray (CR) driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) mechanism for the ozone hole formation was proposed. The derived CRE equation with the stratospheric equivalent chlorine le...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:d931adb4ec564eb28b0e042452593b31 2023-05-15T13:46:46+02:00 Fingerprints of the cosmic ray driven mechanism of the ozone hole Qing-Bin Lu 2021-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0047661 https://doaj.org/article/d931adb4ec564eb28b0e042452593b31 EN eng AIP Publishing LLC http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0047661 https://doaj.org/toc/2158-3226 2158-3226 doi:10.1063/5.0047661 https://doaj.org/article/d931adb4ec564eb28b0e042452593b31 AIP Advances, Vol 11, Iss 11, Pp 115307-115307-11 (2021) Physics QC1-999 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0047661 2022-12-31T10:29:26Z There is long research interest in electron-induced reactions of halogenated molecules. It has been two decades since the cosmic-ray (CR) driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) mechanism for the ozone hole formation was proposed. The derived CRE equation with the stratospheric equivalent chlorine level and CR intensity as the only two variables has well reproduced the observed data of stratospheric O3 and temperatures over the past 40 years. The CRE predictions of 11-year cyclic variations of the Antarctic O3 hole and associated stratospheric cooling have also been well confirmed. Measured altitude profiles of the ozone and temperatures in Antarctic ozone holes provide convincing fingerprints of the CRE mechanism. A quantitative estimate indicates that the CRE-produced Cl atoms could completely deplete or even overkill the ozone in the CR-peak polar stratospheric region, consistent with the observed altitude profiles of the severest Antarctic ozone holes. After removing the natural CR effect, the hidden recovery in the Antarctic O3 hole since ∼1995 is clearly discovered, while the recovery of O3 loss at mid-latitudes is being delayed by ≥10 years. These results have provided strong evidence of the CRE mechanism. If the CR intensity keeps the current rising trend, the Antarctic O3 hole will return to the 1980 level by ∼2060, while the returning of the O3 layer at mid-latitudes to the 1980 level will largely be delayed or will not even occur by the end of this century. The results strongly indicate that the CRE mechanism must be considered as a key factor in evaluating the O3 hole. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic The Antarctic AIP Advances 11 11 115307 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
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Physics QC1-999 |
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Physics QC1-999 Qing-Bin Lu Fingerprints of the cosmic ray driven mechanism of the ozone hole |
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Physics QC1-999 |
description |
There is long research interest in electron-induced reactions of halogenated molecules. It has been two decades since the cosmic-ray (CR) driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) mechanism for the ozone hole formation was proposed. The derived CRE equation with the stratospheric equivalent chlorine level and CR intensity as the only two variables has well reproduced the observed data of stratospheric O3 and temperatures over the past 40 years. The CRE predictions of 11-year cyclic variations of the Antarctic O3 hole and associated stratospheric cooling have also been well confirmed. Measured altitude profiles of the ozone and temperatures in Antarctic ozone holes provide convincing fingerprints of the CRE mechanism. A quantitative estimate indicates that the CRE-produced Cl atoms could completely deplete or even overkill the ozone in the CR-peak polar stratospheric region, consistent with the observed altitude profiles of the severest Antarctic ozone holes. After removing the natural CR effect, the hidden recovery in the Antarctic O3 hole since ∼1995 is clearly discovered, while the recovery of O3 loss at mid-latitudes is being delayed by ≥10 years. These results have provided strong evidence of the CRE mechanism. If the CR intensity keeps the current rising trend, the Antarctic O3 hole will return to the 1980 level by ∼2060, while the returning of the O3 layer at mid-latitudes to the 1980 level will largely be delayed or will not even occur by the end of this century. The results strongly indicate that the CRE mechanism must be considered as a key factor in evaluating the O3 hole. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Qing-Bin Lu |
author_facet |
Qing-Bin Lu |
author_sort |
Qing-Bin Lu |
title |
Fingerprints of the cosmic ray driven mechanism of the ozone hole |
title_short |
Fingerprints of the cosmic ray driven mechanism of the ozone hole |
title_full |
Fingerprints of the cosmic ray driven mechanism of the ozone hole |
title_fullStr |
Fingerprints of the cosmic ray driven mechanism of the ozone hole |
title_full_unstemmed |
Fingerprints of the cosmic ray driven mechanism of the ozone hole |
title_sort |
fingerprints of the cosmic ray driven mechanism of the ozone hole |
publisher |
AIP Publishing LLC |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0047661 https://doaj.org/article/d931adb4ec564eb28b0e042452593b31 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_source |
AIP Advances, Vol 11, Iss 11, Pp 115307-115307-11 (2021) |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0047661 https://doaj.org/toc/2158-3226 2158-3226 doi:10.1063/5.0047661 https://doaj.org/article/d931adb4ec564eb28b0e042452593b31 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0047661 |
container_title |
AIP Advances |
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11 |
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11 |
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115307 |
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1766245191780401152 |