Sea ice processes in the Russian Arctic seas in autumn of 2021 and estimation of ice forecasts accuracy
Sea ice processes in the autumn season of 2021 have been analyzed. It is shown that formation of new ice began 5-15 days later than normal in all the Russian Arctic seas. Estimation of long-term forecast accuracy has revealed that dates of freeze-up and reaching ice thickness values of 20-25 cm were...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:d8cd656e4b534687a980a1a222a90b99 2023-05-15T14:25:54+02:00 Sea ice processes in the Russian Arctic seas in autumn of 2021 and estimation of ice forecasts accuracy Mironov Ye.U. Klyachkin S.V. Makarov Ye.I. Yulin A.V. Afanasyeva E.V. 2021-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.24412/2658-4255-2021-4-40-53 https://doaj.org/article/d8cd656e4b534687a980a1a222a90b99 EN RU eng rus LLC Center for Information and Legal Support for the Development of the Arctic https://en.russian-arctic.info/info/articles/oceanology/sea-ice-processes-in-the-russian-arctic-seas-in-autumn-of-2021-and-estimation-of-ice-forecasts-accur/ https://doaj.org/toc/2658-4255 doi:10.24412/2658-4255-2021-4-40-53 2658-4255 https://doaj.org/article/d8cd656e4b534687a980a1a222a90b99 Российская Арктика, Vol 15, Iss 15, Pp 40-53 (2021) sea ice processes freeze-up dates sea ice conditions type arctic seas northern sea route Geography (General) G1-922 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.24412/2658-4255-2021-4-40-53 2022-12-31T11:07:28Z Sea ice processes in the autumn season of 2021 have been analyzed. It is shown that formation of new ice began 5-15 days later than normal in all the Russian Arctic seas. Estimation of long-term forecast accuracy has revealed that dates of freeze-up and reaching ice thickness values of 20-25 cm were predicted successfully in the Laptev and East Siberian seas (100%); prediction was not successful in the Chukchi Sea. The overall accuracy of ice forecasts in autumn season was 75%. The accuracy of short-term forecast of ice conditions type within 28 NSR regions has been estimated. It is shown that the accuracy of forecast of all the key criteria determining sea ice conditions type varied between 85 and 95%; the accuracy of forecast of ice conditions type varied between 90 and 95%. In conclusion, it is noted that, when navigating in ice, it is important to use background information on the expected sea ice tendencies as additional to specialized sea ice and hydrometeorological support. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Chukchi Chukchi Sea laptev Northern Sea Route Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Chukchi Sea |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English Russian |
topic |
sea ice processes freeze-up dates sea ice conditions type arctic seas northern sea route Geography (General) G1-922 |
spellingShingle |
sea ice processes freeze-up dates sea ice conditions type arctic seas northern sea route Geography (General) G1-922 Mironov Ye.U. Klyachkin S.V. Makarov Ye.I. Yulin A.V. Afanasyeva E.V. Sea ice processes in the Russian Arctic seas in autumn of 2021 and estimation of ice forecasts accuracy |
topic_facet |
sea ice processes freeze-up dates sea ice conditions type arctic seas northern sea route Geography (General) G1-922 |
description |
Sea ice processes in the autumn season of 2021 have been analyzed. It is shown that formation of new ice began 5-15 days later than normal in all the Russian Arctic seas. Estimation of long-term forecast accuracy has revealed that dates of freeze-up and reaching ice thickness values of 20-25 cm were predicted successfully in the Laptev and East Siberian seas (100%); prediction was not successful in the Chukchi Sea. The overall accuracy of ice forecasts in autumn season was 75%. The accuracy of short-term forecast of ice conditions type within 28 NSR regions has been estimated. It is shown that the accuracy of forecast of all the key criteria determining sea ice conditions type varied between 85 and 95%; the accuracy of forecast of ice conditions type varied between 90 and 95%. In conclusion, it is noted that, when navigating in ice, it is important to use background information on the expected sea ice tendencies as additional to specialized sea ice and hydrometeorological support. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mironov Ye.U. Klyachkin S.V. Makarov Ye.I. Yulin A.V. Afanasyeva E.V. |
author_facet |
Mironov Ye.U. Klyachkin S.V. Makarov Ye.I. Yulin A.V. Afanasyeva E.V. |
author_sort |
Mironov Ye.U. |
title |
Sea ice processes in the Russian Arctic seas in autumn of 2021 and estimation of ice forecasts accuracy |
title_short |
Sea ice processes in the Russian Arctic seas in autumn of 2021 and estimation of ice forecasts accuracy |
title_full |
Sea ice processes in the Russian Arctic seas in autumn of 2021 and estimation of ice forecasts accuracy |
title_fullStr |
Sea ice processes in the Russian Arctic seas in autumn of 2021 and estimation of ice forecasts accuracy |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sea ice processes in the Russian Arctic seas in autumn of 2021 and estimation of ice forecasts accuracy |
title_sort |
sea ice processes in the russian arctic seas in autumn of 2021 and estimation of ice forecasts accuracy |
publisher |
LLC Center for Information and Legal Support for the Development of the Arctic |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.24412/2658-4255-2021-4-40-53 https://doaj.org/article/d8cd656e4b534687a980a1a222a90b99 |
geographic |
Arctic Chukchi Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Chukchi Sea |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Chukchi Chukchi Sea laptev Northern Sea Route Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Chukchi Chukchi Sea laptev Northern Sea Route Sea ice |
op_source |
Российская Арктика, Vol 15, Iss 15, Pp 40-53 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://en.russian-arctic.info/info/articles/oceanology/sea-ice-processes-in-the-russian-arctic-seas-in-autumn-of-2021-and-estimation-of-ice-forecasts-accur/ https://doaj.org/toc/2658-4255 doi:10.24412/2658-4255-2021-4-40-53 2658-4255 https://doaj.org/article/d8cd656e4b534687a980a1a222a90b99 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.24412/2658-4255-2021-4-40-53 |
_version_ |
1766298375787905024 |