Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes
The Arctic has warmed rapidly over the past century, with widespread negative impacts on local and surrounding environments. Previous studies have estimated the overall effects of individual groups of anthropogenic forcing agents on Arctic warming. However, the spatial patterns and temporal variabil...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:d7699a0c98654393ac41a7895fa3deda 2023-09-05T13:16:12+02:00 Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes Linfei Yu Guoyong Leng Qiuhong Tang 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c3 https://doaj.org/article/d7699a0c98654393ac41a7895fa3deda EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c3 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c3 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/d7699a0c98654393ac41a7895fa3deda Environmental Research Letters, Vol 17, Iss 12, p 124004 (2022) Arctic greenhouse gases aerosol natural forcing climate change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c3 2023-08-13T00:36:51Z The Arctic has warmed rapidly over the past century, with widespread negative impacts on local and surrounding environments. Previous studies have estimated the overall effects of individual groups of anthropogenic forcing agents on Arctic warming. However, the spatial patterns and temporal variabilities of the separate contributions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), natural forcing agents (NATs; solar radiation and volcanic activity combined) and other anthropogenic (OANT) forcing agents (which are dominated by aerosols) on Arctic land surface air temperatures remain underexamined. Here, we use CMIP6 (the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models to quantify the separate contributions of GHGs, NATs and OANT forcing agents to Arctic land surface air temperature changes and analyze their spatial and temporal change patterns from 1915 to 2014. The results show that GHGs alone have warmed the Arctic by 2.72 °C/century (90% confidence interval: 1.42 °C–4.03 °C), 61.8% of which has been offset by OANT agents. The GHG-induced warming peaks are found in Ellesmere Island, Severnaya Zemlya and Svalbard (above 4 °C/century), while the largest cooling effects (above −2 °C/century) induced by OANT agents occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai and Severnaya Zemlya. A further temporal evolution analysis indicates that the effects of GHGs and OANT forcings have been gradually and robustly detected over time; this increases our confidence in projecting future Arctic climate changes via CMIP6 models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Ellesmere Island Krasnoyarsk Krai Severnaya Zemlya Svalbard Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Ellesmere Island Severnaya Zemlya ENVELOPE(98.000,98.000,79.500,79.500) Svalbard Environmental Research Letters 17 12 124004 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic greenhouse gases aerosol natural forcing climate change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic greenhouse gases aerosol natural forcing climate change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Linfei Yu Guoyong Leng Qiuhong Tang Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes |
topic_facet |
Arctic greenhouse gases aerosol natural forcing climate change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
The Arctic has warmed rapidly over the past century, with widespread negative impacts on local and surrounding environments. Previous studies have estimated the overall effects of individual groups of anthropogenic forcing agents on Arctic warming. However, the spatial patterns and temporal variabilities of the separate contributions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), natural forcing agents (NATs; solar radiation and volcanic activity combined) and other anthropogenic (OANT) forcing agents (which are dominated by aerosols) on Arctic land surface air temperatures remain underexamined. Here, we use CMIP6 (the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models to quantify the separate contributions of GHGs, NATs and OANT forcing agents to Arctic land surface air temperature changes and analyze their spatial and temporal change patterns from 1915 to 2014. The results show that GHGs alone have warmed the Arctic by 2.72 °C/century (90% confidence interval: 1.42 °C–4.03 °C), 61.8% of which has been offset by OANT agents. The GHG-induced warming peaks are found in Ellesmere Island, Severnaya Zemlya and Svalbard (above 4 °C/century), while the largest cooling effects (above −2 °C/century) induced by OANT agents occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai and Severnaya Zemlya. A further temporal evolution analysis indicates that the effects of GHGs and OANT forcings have been gradually and robustly detected over time; this increases our confidence in projecting future Arctic climate changes via CMIP6 models. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Linfei Yu Guoyong Leng Qiuhong Tang |
author_facet |
Linfei Yu Guoyong Leng Qiuhong Tang |
author_sort |
Linfei Yu |
title |
Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes |
title_short |
Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes |
title_full |
Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes |
title_fullStr |
Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes |
title_sort |
varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to arctic land surface air temperature changes |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c3 https://doaj.org/article/d7699a0c98654393ac41a7895fa3deda |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(98.000,98.000,79.500,79.500) |
geographic |
Arctic Ellesmere Island Severnaya Zemlya Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Ellesmere Island Severnaya Zemlya Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Ellesmere Island Krasnoyarsk Krai Severnaya Zemlya Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Ellesmere Island Krasnoyarsk Krai Severnaya Zemlya Svalbard |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 17, Iss 12, p 124004 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c3 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c3 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/d7699a0c98654393ac41a7895fa3deda |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c3 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
124004 |
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1776197870772289536 |