Seasonal statistical–dynamical prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation by probabilistic post-processing and its evaluation
Dynamical models of various centres have shown in recent years seasonal prediction skill of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). By filtering the ensemble members on the basis of statistical predictors, known as subsampling, it is possible to achieve even higher prediction skill. In this study the...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:d6b18389b65d4902a619cf33d32acdff 2023-05-15T17:31:20+02:00 Seasonal statistical–dynamical prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation by probabilistic post-processing and its evaluation A. Düsterhus 2020-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-121-2020 https://doaj.org/article/d6b18389b65d4902a619cf33d32acdff EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/27/121/2020/npg-27-121-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1023-5809 https://doaj.org/toc/1607-7946 doi:10.5194/npg-27-121-2020 1023-5809 1607-7946 https://doaj.org/article/d6b18389b65d4902a619cf33d32acdff Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol 27, Pp 121-131 (2020) Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-121-2020 2022-12-31T14:55:31Z Dynamical models of various centres have shown in recent years seasonal prediction skill of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). By filtering the ensemble members on the basis of statistical predictors, known as subsampling, it is possible to achieve even higher prediction skill. In this study the aim is to design a generalisation of the subsampling approach and establish it as a post-processing procedure. Instead of selecting discrete ensemble members for each year, as the subsampling approach does, the distributions of ensembles and statistical predictors are combined to create a probabilistic prediction of the winter NAO. By comparing the combined statistical–dynamical prediction with the predictions of its single components, it can be shown that it achieves similar results to the statistical prediction. At the same time it can be shown that, unlike the statistical prediction, the combined prediction has fewer years where it performs worse than the dynamical prediction. By applying the gained distributions to other meteorological variables, like geopotential height, precipitation and surface temperature, it can be shown that evaluating prediction skill depends highly on the chosen metric. Besides the common anomaly correlation (ACC) this study also presents scores based on the Earth mover's distance (EMD) and the integrated quadratic distance (IQD), which are designed to evaluate skills of probabilistic predictions. It shows that by evaluating the predictions for each year separately compared to applying a metric to all years at the same time, like correlation-based metrics, leads to different interpretations of the analysis. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 27 1 121 131 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
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Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 A. Düsterhus Seasonal statistical–dynamical prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation by probabilistic post-processing and its evaluation |
topic_facet |
Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
description |
Dynamical models of various centres have shown in recent years seasonal prediction skill of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). By filtering the ensemble members on the basis of statistical predictors, known as subsampling, it is possible to achieve even higher prediction skill. In this study the aim is to design a generalisation of the subsampling approach and establish it as a post-processing procedure. Instead of selecting discrete ensemble members for each year, as the subsampling approach does, the distributions of ensembles and statistical predictors are combined to create a probabilistic prediction of the winter NAO. By comparing the combined statistical–dynamical prediction with the predictions of its single components, it can be shown that it achieves similar results to the statistical prediction. At the same time it can be shown that, unlike the statistical prediction, the combined prediction has fewer years where it performs worse than the dynamical prediction. By applying the gained distributions to other meteorological variables, like geopotential height, precipitation and surface temperature, it can be shown that evaluating prediction skill depends highly on the chosen metric. Besides the common anomaly correlation (ACC) this study also presents scores based on the Earth mover's distance (EMD) and the integrated quadratic distance (IQD), which are designed to evaluate skills of probabilistic predictions. It shows that by evaluating the predictions for each year separately compared to applying a metric to all years at the same time, like correlation-based metrics, leads to different interpretations of the analysis. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. Düsterhus |
author_facet |
A. Düsterhus |
author_sort |
A. Düsterhus |
title |
Seasonal statistical–dynamical prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation by probabilistic post-processing and its evaluation |
title_short |
Seasonal statistical–dynamical prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation by probabilistic post-processing and its evaluation |
title_full |
Seasonal statistical–dynamical prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation by probabilistic post-processing and its evaluation |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal statistical–dynamical prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation by probabilistic post-processing and its evaluation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal statistical–dynamical prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation by probabilistic post-processing and its evaluation |
title_sort |
seasonal statistical–dynamical prediction of the north atlantic oscillation by probabilistic post-processing and its evaluation |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-121-2020 https://doaj.org/article/d6b18389b65d4902a619cf33d32acdff |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol 27, Pp 121-131 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/27/121/2020/npg-27-121-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1023-5809 https://doaj.org/toc/1607-7946 doi:10.5194/npg-27-121-2020 1023-5809 1607-7946 https://doaj.org/article/d6b18389b65d4902a619cf33d32acdff |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-121-2020 |
container_title |
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
121 |
op_container_end_page |
131 |
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1766128847175024640 |