Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)
The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 ye...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:d68ed8dbbf6f4cb6892ec9259adc18da 2023-05-15T15:18:33+02:00 Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) B. L. Otto-Bliesner E. C. Brady A. Zhao C. M. Brierley Y. Axford E. Capron A. Govin J. S. Hoffman E. Isaacs M. Kageyama P. Scussolini P. C. Tzedakis C. J. R. Williams E. Wolff A. Abe-Ouchi P. Braconnot S. Ramos Buarque J. Cao A. de Vernal M. V. Guarino C. Guo A. N. LeGrande G. Lohmann K. J. Meissner L. Menviel P. A. Morozova K. H. Nisancioglu R. O'ishi D. Salas y Mélia X. Shi M. Sicard L. Sime C. Stepanek R. Tomas E. Volodin N. K. H. Yeung Q. Zhang Z. Zhang W. Zheng 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021 https://doaj.org/article/d68ed8dbbf6f4cb6892ec9259adc18da EN eng Copernicus Publications https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/63/2021/cp-17-63-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-17-63-2021 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/d68ed8dbbf6f4cb6892ec9259adc18da Climate of the Past, Vol 17, Pp 63-94 (2021) Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021 2022-12-31T15:50:19Z The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago ( lig127k ), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 ∘ C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Canada Climate of the Past 17 1 63 94 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 B. L. Otto-Bliesner E. C. Brady A. Zhao C. M. Brierley Y. Axford E. Capron A. Govin J. S. Hoffman E. Isaacs M. Kageyama P. Scussolini P. C. Tzedakis C. J. R. Williams E. Wolff A. Abe-Ouchi P. Braconnot S. Ramos Buarque J. Cao A. de Vernal M. V. Guarino C. Guo A. N. LeGrande G. Lohmann K. J. Meissner L. Menviel P. A. Morozova K. H. Nisancioglu R. O'ishi D. Salas y Mélia X. Shi M. Sicard L. Sime C. Stepanek R. Tomas E. Volodin N. K. H. Yeung Q. Zhang Z. Zhang W. Zheng Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) |
topic_facet |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago ( lig127k ), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 ∘ C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
B. L. Otto-Bliesner E. C. Brady A. Zhao C. M. Brierley Y. Axford E. Capron A. Govin J. S. Hoffman E. Isaacs M. Kageyama P. Scussolini P. C. Tzedakis C. J. R. Williams E. Wolff A. Abe-Ouchi P. Braconnot S. Ramos Buarque J. Cao A. de Vernal M. V. Guarino C. Guo A. N. LeGrande G. Lohmann K. J. Meissner L. Menviel P. A. Morozova K. H. Nisancioglu R. O'ishi D. Salas y Mélia X. Shi M. Sicard L. Sime C. Stepanek R. Tomas E. Volodin N. K. H. Yeung Q. Zhang Z. Zhang W. Zheng |
author_facet |
B. L. Otto-Bliesner E. C. Brady A. Zhao C. M. Brierley Y. Axford E. Capron A. Govin J. S. Hoffman E. Isaacs M. Kageyama P. Scussolini P. C. Tzedakis C. J. R. Williams E. Wolff A. Abe-Ouchi P. Braconnot S. Ramos Buarque J. Cao A. de Vernal M. V. Guarino C. Guo A. N. LeGrande G. Lohmann K. J. Meissner L. Menviel P. A. Morozova K. H. Nisancioglu R. O'ishi D. Salas y Mélia X. Shi M. Sicard L. Sime C. Stepanek R. Tomas E. Volodin N. K. H. Yeung Q. Zhang Z. Zhang W. Zheng |
author_sort |
B. L. Otto-Bliesner |
title |
Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) |
title_short |
Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) |
title_full |
Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) |
title_fullStr |
Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) |
title_sort |
large-scale features of last interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the coupled model intercomparison project (cmip6)–paleoclimate modeling intercomparison project (pmip4) |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021 https://doaj.org/article/d68ed8dbbf6f4cb6892ec9259adc18da |
geographic |
Arctic Canada |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol 17, Pp 63-94 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/63/2021/cp-17-63-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-17-63-2021 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/d68ed8dbbf6f4cb6892ec9259adc18da |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
63 |
op_container_end_page |
94 |
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1766348746564567040 |