The effect of early-stage public health policies in the transmission of COVID-19 for South American countries

Objectives. The analysis of transmission dynamics is crucial to determine whether mitigation or suppression measures reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study sought to estimate the basic (R0) and time-varying (Rt) reproduction number of COVID-19 and contrast the public he...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Published in:Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública
Main Authors: Bryan Valcarcel, Jose L. Avilez, J. Smith Torres-Roman, Julio A. Poterico, Janina Bazalar-Palacios, Carlo La Vecchia
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Spanish
Portuguese
Published: Pan American Health Organization 2020
Subjects:
severe acute respiratory syndrome
betacoronavirus
basic reproduction number
communicable diseases
emerging
pandemics
epidemiology
south america
Medicine
R
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine
RC955-962
Public aspects of medicine
RA1-1270
Arctic
Uruguay
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.26633/RPSP.2020.148
https://doaj.org/article/d683ba88b67649e49492adafd58cda8b
Description
Summary:Objectives. The analysis of transmission dynamics is crucial to determine whether mitigation or suppression measures reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study sought to estimate the basic (R0) and time-varying (Rt) reproduction number of COVID-19 and contrast the public health measures for ten South American countries. Methods. Data was obtained from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Country-specific R0 values during the first two weeks of the outbreak and Rt values after 90 days were estimated. Results. Countries used a combination of isolation, physical distancing, quarantine, and community-wide containment measures to staunch the spread of COVID-19 at different points in time. R0 ranged from 1.52 (95% confidence interval: 1.13-1.99) in Venezuela to 3.83 (3.04-4.75) in Chile, whereas Rt after 90 days ranged from 0.71 (95% credible interval: 0.39-1.05) in Uruguay to 1.20 (1.19-1.20) in Brazil. Different R0 and Rt values may be related to the testing capacity of each country. Conclusion. R0 in the early phase of the outbreak varied across the South American countries. The public health measures adopted in the initial period of the pandemic appear to have reduced Rt over time in each country, albeit to different levels.

Similar Items