Initialization of thermal models in cold and warm permafrost
Equilibrium modelling, also known as spin-up, is a technique for initializing a stable thermal regime in ground temperature models for permafrost regions. The results act as a baseline for subsequent transient analyses of ground temperature response to climate change or infrastructure. In practice,...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:d561efc253b04ee5a2d2a4f54cb98d6c 2023-05-15T14:23:47+02:00 Initialization of thermal models in cold and warm permafrost Cameron Ross Greg Siemens Ryley Beddoe 2022-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2021-0013 https://doaj.org/article/d561efc253b04ee5a2d2a4f54cb98d6c EN FR eng fre Canadian Science Publishing https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/as-2021-0013 https://doaj.org/toc/2368-7460 doi:10.1139/as-2021-0013 2368-7460 https://doaj.org/article/d561efc253b04ee5a2d2a4f54cb98d6c Arctic Science, Vol 8, Iss 2, Pp 362-394 (2022) permafrost model spin-up equilibrium modelling surface energy balance thermal modelling modèle de pergélisol Environmental sciences GE1-350 Environmental engineering TA170-171 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2021-0013 2022-12-30T22:56:48Z Equilibrium modelling, also known as spin-up, is a technique for initializing a stable thermal regime in ground temperature models for permafrost regions. The results act as a baseline for subsequent transient analyses of ground temperature response to climate change or infrastructure. In practice, spin-up procedures are often loosely described or neglected, and the criteria by which a stable thermal regime is evaluated are rarely defined or presented explicitly. In this paper, model results show that no single criterion based on thresholds of inter-cycle temperature change can be used to identify a stable thermal regime in all spin-up scenarios. Results from simulations using a wide range of initialization temperatures and conditions show the number of spin-up cycles can range between 10 and 10 000, and a spin-up criterion as fine as 0.00001 °C/cycle is required to achieve a stable thermal regime suitable for deeper warm permafrost models. The implications of selected threshold criteria are examined in follow-up transient analyses and show that warm permafrost models can be highly sensitive to initial temperature profiles based on the criterion used. The results alert scientists and engineers to the importance of initialization on site-specific and regional permafrost models for transient ground temperature analyses. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic permafrost pergélisol Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Science 8 2 362 394 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English French |
topic |
permafrost model spin-up equilibrium modelling surface energy balance thermal modelling modèle de pergélisol Environmental sciences GE1-350 Environmental engineering TA170-171 |
spellingShingle |
permafrost model spin-up equilibrium modelling surface energy balance thermal modelling modèle de pergélisol Environmental sciences GE1-350 Environmental engineering TA170-171 Cameron Ross Greg Siemens Ryley Beddoe Initialization of thermal models in cold and warm permafrost |
topic_facet |
permafrost model spin-up equilibrium modelling surface energy balance thermal modelling modèle de pergélisol Environmental sciences GE1-350 Environmental engineering TA170-171 |
description |
Equilibrium modelling, also known as spin-up, is a technique for initializing a stable thermal regime in ground temperature models for permafrost regions. The results act as a baseline for subsequent transient analyses of ground temperature response to climate change or infrastructure. In practice, spin-up procedures are often loosely described or neglected, and the criteria by which a stable thermal regime is evaluated are rarely defined or presented explicitly. In this paper, model results show that no single criterion based on thresholds of inter-cycle temperature change can be used to identify a stable thermal regime in all spin-up scenarios. Results from simulations using a wide range of initialization temperatures and conditions show the number of spin-up cycles can range between 10 and 10 000, and a spin-up criterion as fine as 0.00001 °C/cycle is required to achieve a stable thermal regime suitable for deeper warm permafrost models. The implications of selected threshold criteria are examined in follow-up transient analyses and show that warm permafrost models can be highly sensitive to initial temperature profiles based on the criterion used. The results alert scientists and engineers to the importance of initialization on site-specific and regional permafrost models for transient ground temperature analyses. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cameron Ross Greg Siemens Ryley Beddoe |
author_facet |
Cameron Ross Greg Siemens Ryley Beddoe |
author_sort |
Cameron Ross |
title |
Initialization of thermal models in cold and warm permafrost |
title_short |
Initialization of thermal models in cold and warm permafrost |
title_full |
Initialization of thermal models in cold and warm permafrost |
title_fullStr |
Initialization of thermal models in cold and warm permafrost |
title_full_unstemmed |
Initialization of thermal models in cold and warm permafrost |
title_sort |
initialization of thermal models in cold and warm permafrost |
publisher |
Canadian Science Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2021-0013 https://doaj.org/article/d561efc253b04ee5a2d2a4f54cb98d6c |
genre |
Arctic permafrost pergélisol |
genre_facet |
Arctic permafrost pergélisol |
op_source |
Arctic Science, Vol 8, Iss 2, Pp 362-394 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/as-2021-0013 https://doaj.org/toc/2368-7460 doi:10.1139/as-2021-0013 2368-7460 https://doaj.org/article/d561efc253b04ee5a2d2a4f54cb98d6c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2021-0013 |
container_title |
Arctic Science |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
362 |
op_container_end_page |
394 |
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1766296276184334336 |