Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement
To limit global warming to well below 2°C in accord with the Paris Agreement, countries throughout the world have submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the next few decades. However, it remains unclear what the...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:d53f818dbb0345ce8c3ce1aca8fb72d0 2024-09-15T18:02:33+00:00 Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement Fang Wang Katarzyna B. Tokarska Jintao Zhang Quansheng Ge Zhixin Hao Xuezhen Zhang Maowei Wu 2018-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/2487962 https://doaj.org/article/d53f818dbb0345ce8c3ce1aca8fb72d0 EN eng Wiley http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/2487962 https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9309 https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9317 1687-9309 1687-9317 doi:10.1155/2018/2487962 https://doaj.org/article/d53f818dbb0345ce8c3ce1aca8fb72d0 Advances in Meteorology, Vol 2018 (2018) Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/2487962 2024-08-05T17:48:34Z To limit global warming to well below 2°C in accord with the Paris Agreement, countries throughout the world have submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the next few decades. However, it remains unclear what the resulting climate change is in response to the proposed INDCs and subsequent emission reductions. In this study, the global and regional warming under the updated INDC scenarios was estimated from a range of comprehensive Earth system models (CMIP5) and a simpler carbon-climate model (MAGICC), based on the relationship of climate response to cumulative emissions. The global GHG emissions under the updated INDC pledges are estimated to reach 14.2∼15.0 GtC/year in 2030, resulting in a global mean temperature increase of 1.29∼1.55°C (median of 1.41°C) above the preindustrial level. By extending the INDC scenarios to 2100, global GHG emissions are estimated to be around 6.4∼9.0 GtC/year in 2100, resulting in a global mean temperature increase by 2.67∼3.74°C (median of 3.17°C). The Arctic warming is projected to be most profound, exceeding the global average by a factor of three by the end of this century. Thus, climate warming under INDC scenarios is projected to greatly exceed the long-term Paris Agreement goal of stabilizing the global mean temperature at to a low level of 1.5‐2.0°C above the pre-industrial. Our study suggests that the INDC emission commitments need to be adjusted and strengthened to bridge this warming gap. Article in Journal/Newspaper Climate change Global warming Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Advances in Meteorology 2018 1 9 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Fang Wang Katarzyna B. Tokarska Jintao Zhang Quansheng Ge Zhixin Hao Xuezhen Zhang Maowei Wu Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement |
topic_facet |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
To limit global warming to well below 2°C in accord with the Paris Agreement, countries throughout the world have submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the next few decades. However, it remains unclear what the resulting climate change is in response to the proposed INDCs and subsequent emission reductions. In this study, the global and regional warming under the updated INDC scenarios was estimated from a range of comprehensive Earth system models (CMIP5) and a simpler carbon-climate model (MAGICC), based on the relationship of climate response to cumulative emissions. The global GHG emissions under the updated INDC pledges are estimated to reach 14.2∼15.0 GtC/year in 2030, resulting in a global mean temperature increase of 1.29∼1.55°C (median of 1.41°C) above the preindustrial level. By extending the INDC scenarios to 2100, global GHG emissions are estimated to be around 6.4∼9.0 GtC/year in 2100, resulting in a global mean temperature increase by 2.67∼3.74°C (median of 3.17°C). The Arctic warming is projected to be most profound, exceeding the global average by a factor of three by the end of this century. Thus, climate warming under INDC scenarios is projected to greatly exceed the long-term Paris Agreement goal of stabilizing the global mean temperature at to a low level of 1.5‐2.0°C above the pre-industrial. Our study suggests that the INDC emission commitments need to be adjusted and strengthened to bridge this warming gap. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fang Wang Katarzyna B. Tokarska Jintao Zhang Quansheng Ge Zhixin Hao Xuezhen Zhang Maowei Wu |
author_facet |
Fang Wang Katarzyna B. Tokarska Jintao Zhang Quansheng Ge Zhixin Hao Xuezhen Zhang Maowei Wu |
author_sort |
Fang Wang |
title |
Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement |
title_short |
Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement |
title_full |
Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement |
title_fullStr |
Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement |
title_sort |
climate warming in response to emission reductions consistent with the paris agreement |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/2487962 https://doaj.org/article/d53f818dbb0345ce8c3ce1aca8fb72d0 |
genre |
Climate change Global warming |
genre_facet |
Climate change Global warming |
op_source |
Advances in Meteorology, Vol 2018 (2018) |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/2487962 https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9309 https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9317 1687-9309 1687-9317 doi:10.1155/2018/2487962 https://doaj.org/article/d53f818dbb0345ce8c3ce1aca8fb72d0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/2487962 |
container_title |
Advances in Meteorology |
container_volume |
2018 |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
9 |
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1810439989517877248 |