Permafrost model in coarse-blocky deposits for the Dry Andes, Argentina (28°-33° S)
In this work, a statistical permafrost distribution model for coarse-blocky deposits in the Dry Andes of Argentina (28-33°S) is presented. The empiric mathematical formulation was based on a logistic regression. The final model is a combination of two independent occurrence probability models: a) a...
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Universidad de La Rioja
2020
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:d536df4646744665b8c63db4dbdeb53a 2023-05-15T17:55:17+02:00 Permafrost model in coarse-blocky deposits for the Dry Andes, Argentina (28°-33° S) C. Tapia-Baldis D. Trombotto-Liaudat 2020-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.3802 https://doaj.org/article/d536df4646744665b8c63db4dbdeb53a EN ES eng spa Universidad de La Rioja https://publicaciones.unirioja.es/ojs/index.php/cig/article/view/3802 https://doaj.org/toc/0211-6820 https://doaj.org/toc/1697-9540 0211-6820 1697-9540 doi:10.18172/cig.3802 https://doaj.org/article/d536df4646744665b8c63db4dbdeb53a Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica, Vol 46, Iss 1, Pp 33-58 (2020) mountain permafrost dry andes argentina logistic regression model Geography (General) G1-922 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.3802 2022-12-31T03:42:36Z In this work, a statistical permafrost distribution model for coarse-blocky deposits in the Dry Andes of Argentina (28-33°S) is presented. The empiric mathematical formulation was based on a logistic regression. The final model is a combination of two independent occurrence probability models: a) a mean annual air temperature-terrain ruggedness model and, b) a mean annual air temperature-potential incoming solar radiation model. For all cases, calibration was made according the complete geomorphological characterization of a periglacial basin with 250 km2. Lately, the results of probabilistic model were extrapolated to the whole study area in the Dry Andes and compared with the Argentine rock glacier inventory data base. High permafrost likelihood, in coarse debris, is expected above 4200 and 5700 m a.s.l., from south to north in the study area and covers a surface of approximately 1200 km2. Medium permafrost likelihood is expected above 3400 and 4200 m a.s.l. with a surface of 6178 km2 while low permafrost likelihood, occurs between 3000 and 3400 m a.s.l. with an area of 11.060 km2. These findings indicate that permafrost may occur in several types of coarse-blocky deposits in the Dry Andes, not only restricted to rock glaciers. Thermal properties of the ground in coarse-blocky deposits allow permafrost permanence, even under unfavourable climatic conditions. The performance of the permafrost model was also tested, considering the transition from cold paleoclimate Tardiglacial to present climatic conditions. During the warming, likely permafrost surface reduced from 56 to 13%. In the same way, rock glaciers with high and medium permafrost likelihood decrease from 62 to 30%, respectively while, rock glaciers with low likelihood and no permafrost category, increased 75% and 474%, respectively. Moreover, we identified some sites in which permafrost degradation is arguably expected. About that, 0.9% of the rock glaciers in the study area display possible permafrost degradation and 33% of them, likely permafrost ... Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Argentina Argentine Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica 46 1 33 58 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English Spanish |
topic |
mountain permafrost dry andes argentina logistic regression model Geography (General) G1-922 |
spellingShingle |
mountain permafrost dry andes argentina logistic regression model Geography (General) G1-922 C. Tapia-Baldis D. Trombotto-Liaudat Permafrost model in coarse-blocky deposits for the Dry Andes, Argentina (28°-33° S) |
topic_facet |
mountain permafrost dry andes argentina logistic regression model Geography (General) G1-922 |
description |
In this work, a statistical permafrost distribution model for coarse-blocky deposits in the Dry Andes of Argentina (28-33°S) is presented. The empiric mathematical formulation was based on a logistic regression. The final model is a combination of two independent occurrence probability models: a) a mean annual air temperature-terrain ruggedness model and, b) a mean annual air temperature-potential incoming solar radiation model. For all cases, calibration was made according the complete geomorphological characterization of a periglacial basin with 250 km2. Lately, the results of probabilistic model were extrapolated to the whole study area in the Dry Andes and compared with the Argentine rock glacier inventory data base. High permafrost likelihood, in coarse debris, is expected above 4200 and 5700 m a.s.l., from south to north in the study area and covers a surface of approximately 1200 km2. Medium permafrost likelihood is expected above 3400 and 4200 m a.s.l. with a surface of 6178 km2 while low permafrost likelihood, occurs between 3000 and 3400 m a.s.l. with an area of 11.060 km2. These findings indicate that permafrost may occur in several types of coarse-blocky deposits in the Dry Andes, not only restricted to rock glaciers. Thermal properties of the ground in coarse-blocky deposits allow permafrost permanence, even under unfavourable climatic conditions. The performance of the permafrost model was also tested, considering the transition from cold paleoclimate Tardiglacial to present climatic conditions. During the warming, likely permafrost surface reduced from 56 to 13%. In the same way, rock glaciers with high and medium permafrost likelihood decrease from 62 to 30%, respectively while, rock glaciers with low likelihood and no permafrost category, increased 75% and 474%, respectively. Moreover, we identified some sites in which permafrost degradation is arguably expected. About that, 0.9% of the rock glaciers in the study area display possible permafrost degradation and 33% of them, likely permafrost ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
C. Tapia-Baldis D. Trombotto-Liaudat |
author_facet |
C. Tapia-Baldis D. Trombotto-Liaudat |
author_sort |
C. Tapia-Baldis |
title |
Permafrost model in coarse-blocky deposits for the Dry Andes, Argentina (28°-33° S) |
title_short |
Permafrost model in coarse-blocky deposits for the Dry Andes, Argentina (28°-33° S) |
title_full |
Permafrost model in coarse-blocky deposits for the Dry Andes, Argentina (28°-33° S) |
title_fullStr |
Permafrost model in coarse-blocky deposits for the Dry Andes, Argentina (28°-33° S) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Permafrost model in coarse-blocky deposits for the Dry Andes, Argentina (28°-33° S) |
title_sort |
permafrost model in coarse-blocky deposits for the dry andes, argentina (28°-33° s) |
publisher |
Universidad de La Rioja |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.3802 https://doaj.org/article/d536df4646744665b8c63db4dbdeb53a |
geographic |
Argentina Argentine |
geographic_facet |
Argentina Argentine |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica, Vol 46, Iss 1, Pp 33-58 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://publicaciones.unirioja.es/ojs/index.php/cig/article/view/3802 https://doaj.org/toc/0211-6820 https://doaj.org/toc/1697-9540 0211-6820 1697-9540 doi:10.18172/cig.3802 https://doaj.org/article/d536df4646744665b8c63db4dbdeb53a |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.3802 |
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Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica |
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46 |
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33 |
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