Global ozone forecasting based on ERS-2 GOME observations
The availability of near-real time ozone observations from satellite instruments has recently initiated the development of ozone data assimilation systems. In this paper we present the results of an ozone assimilation and forecasting system, in use since Autumn 2000. The forecasts are produced by an...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:d4d0b901b8274d639d5aa3c79d680a16 2023-05-15T18:22:29+02:00 Global ozone forecasting based on ERS-2 GOME observations H. J. Eskes P. F. J. van Velthoven H. M. Kelder 2002-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doaj.org/article/d4d0b901b8274d639d5aa3c79d680a16 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/2/271/2002/acp-2-271-2002.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/d4d0b901b8274d639d5aa3c79d680a16 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 2, Iss 4, Pp 271-278 (2002) Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 article 2002 ftdoajarticles 2022-12-31T12:24:32Z The availability of near-real time ozone observations from satellite instruments has recently initiated the development of ozone data assimilation systems. In this paper we present the results of an ozone assimilation and forecasting system, in use since Autumn 2000. The forecasts are produced by an ozone transport and chemistry model, driven by the operational medium range forecasts of ECMWF. The forecasts are initialised with realistic ozone distributions, obtained by the assimilation of near-real time total column observations of the GOME spectrometer on ERS-2. The forecast error diagnostics demonstrate that the system produces meaningful total ozone forecasts for up to 6 days in the extratropics. In the tropics meaningful forecasts of the small anomalies are restricted to shorter periods of about two days with the present model setup. It is demonstrated that important events, such as the breakup of the South Pole ozone hole and mini-hole events above Europe can be successfully predicted 4--5 days in advance. Article in Journal/Newspaper South pole Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles South Pole |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 H. J. Eskes P. F. J. van Velthoven H. M. Kelder Global ozone forecasting based on ERS-2 GOME observations |
topic_facet |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
description |
The availability of near-real time ozone observations from satellite instruments has recently initiated the development of ozone data assimilation systems. In this paper we present the results of an ozone assimilation and forecasting system, in use since Autumn 2000. The forecasts are produced by an ozone transport and chemistry model, driven by the operational medium range forecasts of ECMWF. The forecasts are initialised with realistic ozone distributions, obtained by the assimilation of near-real time total column observations of the GOME spectrometer on ERS-2. The forecast error diagnostics demonstrate that the system produces meaningful total ozone forecasts for up to 6 days in the extratropics. In the tropics meaningful forecasts of the small anomalies are restricted to shorter periods of about two days with the present model setup. It is demonstrated that important events, such as the breakup of the South Pole ozone hole and mini-hole events above Europe can be successfully predicted 4--5 days in advance. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
H. J. Eskes P. F. J. van Velthoven H. M. Kelder |
author_facet |
H. J. Eskes P. F. J. van Velthoven H. M. Kelder |
author_sort |
H. J. Eskes |
title |
Global ozone forecasting based on ERS-2 GOME observations |
title_short |
Global ozone forecasting based on ERS-2 GOME observations |
title_full |
Global ozone forecasting based on ERS-2 GOME observations |
title_fullStr |
Global ozone forecasting based on ERS-2 GOME observations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global ozone forecasting based on ERS-2 GOME observations |
title_sort |
global ozone forecasting based on ers-2 gome observations |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2002 |
url |
https://doaj.org/article/d4d0b901b8274d639d5aa3c79d680a16 |
geographic |
South Pole |
geographic_facet |
South Pole |
genre |
South pole |
genre_facet |
South pole |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 2, Iss 4, Pp 271-278 (2002) |
op_relation |
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/2/271/2002/acp-2-271-2002.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/d4d0b901b8274d639d5aa3c79d680a16 |
_version_ |
1766201895048708096 |