The Melting Snowball Effect: A Heuristic for Sustainable Arctic Governance Under Climate Change
Climate change in the Arctic is occurring at a rapid rate. In Longyearbyen, Svalbard, the world’s northernmost city, deadly avalanches and permafrost thaw-induced architectural destruction has disrupted local governance norms and responsibilities. In the North Atlantic, the warming ocean temperature...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:d4b95d52f7f3439aaaec1207084ac871 2023-05-15T14:51:59+02:00 The Melting Snowball Effect: A Heuristic for Sustainable Arctic Governance Under Climate Change Dorothy J. Dankel Rachel G. Tiller Elske Koelma Vicky W. Y. Lam Yajie Liu 2020-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00537 https://doaj.org/article/d4b95d52f7f3439aaaec1207084ac871 EN eng Frontiers Media S.A. https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2020.00537/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745 2296-7745 doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.00537 https://doaj.org/article/d4b95d52f7f3439aaaec1207084ac871 Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol 7 (2020) climate change governance geopolitics Arctic social sustainability responsible research and innovation Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00537 2022-12-31T08:53:52Z Climate change in the Arctic is occurring at a rapid rate. In Longyearbyen, Svalbard, the world’s northernmost city, deadly avalanches and permafrost thaw-induced architectural destruction has disrupted local governance norms and responsibilities. In the North Atlantic, the warming ocean temperatures have contributed to a rapid expansion of the mackerel stock which has spurred both geo-political tensions but also tensions at the science-policy interface of fish quota setting. These local climate-induced changes have created a domino-like chain reaction that intensifies through time as a warming Arctic penetrates deeper into responsibilities of governing institutions and science institutions. In face with the increasing uncertain futures of climate-induced changes, policy choices also increase revealing a type of “snowballing” of possible futures facing decision-makers. We introduce a portmanteau-inspired concept called “The Melting Snowball Effect” that encompasses the chain reaction (“domino effect”) that increases the number of plausible scenarios (“snowball effect”) with climate change (melting snow, ice and thawing permafrost). We demonstrate the use of “The Melting Snowball Effect” as a heuristic within a Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) framework of anticipation, engagement and reflection. To do this, we developed plausible scenarios based on participatory stakeholder workshops and narratives from in-depth interviews for deliberative discussions among academics, citizens and policymakers, designed for informed decision-making in response to climate change complexities. We observe generational differences in discussing future climate scenarios, particularly that the mixed group where three generations were represented had the most diverse and thorough deliberations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Ice Longyearbyen North Atlantic permafrost Svalbard Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Svalbard Longyearbyen Frontiers in Marine Science 7 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change governance geopolitics Arctic social sustainability responsible research and innovation Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
spellingShingle |
climate change governance geopolitics Arctic social sustainability responsible research and innovation Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 Dorothy J. Dankel Rachel G. Tiller Elske Koelma Vicky W. Y. Lam Yajie Liu The Melting Snowball Effect: A Heuristic for Sustainable Arctic Governance Under Climate Change |
topic_facet |
climate change governance geopolitics Arctic social sustainability responsible research and innovation Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
description |
Climate change in the Arctic is occurring at a rapid rate. In Longyearbyen, Svalbard, the world’s northernmost city, deadly avalanches and permafrost thaw-induced architectural destruction has disrupted local governance norms and responsibilities. In the North Atlantic, the warming ocean temperatures have contributed to a rapid expansion of the mackerel stock which has spurred both geo-political tensions but also tensions at the science-policy interface of fish quota setting. These local climate-induced changes have created a domino-like chain reaction that intensifies through time as a warming Arctic penetrates deeper into responsibilities of governing institutions and science institutions. In face with the increasing uncertain futures of climate-induced changes, policy choices also increase revealing a type of “snowballing” of possible futures facing decision-makers. We introduce a portmanteau-inspired concept called “The Melting Snowball Effect” that encompasses the chain reaction (“domino effect”) that increases the number of plausible scenarios (“snowball effect”) with climate change (melting snow, ice and thawing permafrost). We demonstrate the use of “The Melting Snowball Effect” as a heuristic within a Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) framework of anticipation, engagement and reflection. To do this, we developed plausible scenarios based on participatory stakeholder workshops and narratives from in-depth interviews for deliberative discussions among academics, citizens and policymakers, designed for informed decision-making in response to climate change complexities. We observe generational differences in discussing future climate scenarios, particularly that the mixed group where three generations were represented had the most diverse and thorough deliberations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Dorothy J. Dankel Rachel G. Tiller Elske Koelma Vicky W. Y. Lam Yajie Liu |
author_facet |
Dorothy J. Dankel Rachel G. Tiller Elske Koelma Vicky W. Y. Lam Yajie Liu |
author_sort |
Dorothy J. Dankel |
title |
The Melting Snowball Effect: A Heuristic for Sustainable Arctic Governance Under Climate Change |
title_short |
The Melting Snowball Effect: A Heuristic for Sustainable Arctic Governance Under Climate Change |
title_full |
The Melting Snowball Effect: A Heuristic for Sustainable Arctic Governance Under Climate Change |
title_fullStr |
The Melting Snowball Effect: A Heuristic for Sustainable Arctic Governance Under Climate Change |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Melting Snowball Effect: A Heuristic for Sustainable Arctic Governance Under Climate Change |
title_sort |
melting snowball effect: a heuristic for sustainable arctic governance under climate change |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00537 https://doaj.org/article/d4b95d52f7f3439aaaec1207084ac871 |
geographic |
Arctic Svalbard Longyearbyen |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Svalbard Longyearbyen |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Ice Longyearbyen North Atlantic permafrost Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Ice Longyearbyen North Atlantic permafrost Svalbard |
op_source |
Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol 7 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2020.00537/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745 2296-7745 doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.00537 https://doaj.org/article/d4b95d52f7f3439aaaec1207084ac871 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00537 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
7 |
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1766323114096984064 |