Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice
Abstract Over the satellite era, Antarctic sea ice exhibited an overall long-term increasing trend, contrary to the Arctic reduction under global warming. However, the drastic decline of Antarctic sea ice in 2014–2018 raises questions about its interannual and decadal-scale variabilities, which are...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:d4a3df2b7f4740ea996dcefbc9c30c08 2024-01-21T09:58:58+01:00 Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice Yusen Liu Cheng Sun Jianping Li Fred Kucharski Emanuele Di Lorenzo Muhammad Adnan Abid Xichen Li 2023-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44094-1 https://doaj.org/article/d4a3df2b7f4740ea996dcefbc9c30c08 EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44094-1 https://doaj.org/toc/2041-1723 doi:10.1038/s41467-023-44094-1 2041-1723 https://doaj.org/article/d4a3df2b7f4740ea996dcefbc9c30c08 Nature Communications, Vol 14, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2023) Science Q article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44094-1 2023-12-24T01:47:11Z Abstract Over the satellite era, Antarctic sea ice exhibited an overall long-term increasing trend, contrary to the Arctic reduction under global warming. However, the drastic decline of Antarctic sea ice in 2014–2018 raises questions about its interannual and decadal-scale variabilities, which are poorly understood and predicted. Here, we identify an Antarctic sea ice decadal oscillation, exhibiting a quasi-period of 8–16 years, that is anticorrelated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (r = −0.90). By combining observations, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations, and pacemaker climate model experiments, we find evidence that the synchrony between the sea ice decadal oscillation and Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation is linked to atmospheric poleward-propagating Rossby wave trains excited by heating in the central tropical Pacific. These waves weaken the Amundsen Sea Low, melting sea ice due to enhanced shortwave radiation and warm advection. A Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation-based regression model shows that this tropical-polar teleconnection carries multi-year predictability. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Amundsen Sea Antarctic Arctic Pacific Nature Communications 14 1 |
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Science Q Yusen Liu Cheng Sun Jianping Li Fred Kucharski Emanuele Di Lorenzo Muhammad Adnan Abid Xichen Li Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice |
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Science Q |
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Abstract Over the satellite era, Antarctic sea ice exhibited an overall long-term increasing trend, contrary to the Arctic reduction under global warming. However, the drastic decline of Antarctic sea ice in 2014–2018 raises questions about its interannual and decadal-scale variabilities, which are poorly understood and predicted. Here, we identify an Antarctic sea ice decadal oscillation, exhibiting a quasi-period of 8–16 years, that is anticorrelated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (r = −0.90). By combining observations, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations, and pacemaker climate model experiments, we find evidence that the synchrony between the sea ice decadal oscillation and Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation is linked to atmospheric poleward-propagating Rossby wave trains excited by heating in the central tropical Pacific. These waves weaken the Amundsen Sea Low, melting sea ice due to enhanced shortwave radiation and warm advection. A Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation-based regression model shows that this tropical-polar teleconnection carries multi-year predictability. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yusen Liu Cheng Sun Jianping Li Fred Kucharski Emanuele Di Lorenzo Muhammad Adnan Abid Xichen Li |
author_facet |
Yusen Liu Cheng Sun Jianping Li Fred Kucharski Emanuele Di Lorenzo Muhammad Adnan Abid Xichen Li |
author_sort |
Yusen Liu |
title |
Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice |
title_short |
Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice |
title_full |
Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice |
title_fullStr |
Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice |
title_sort |
decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of antarctic sea ice |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44094-1 https://doaj.org/article/d4a3df2b7f4740ea996dcefbc9c30c08 |
geographic |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
Nature Communications, Vol 14, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44094-1 https://doaj.org/toc/2041-1723 doi:10.1038/s41467-023-44094-1 2041-1723 https://doaj.org/article/d4a3df2b7f4740ea996dcefbc9c30c08 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44094-1 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1788692303816163328 |