Unreported cases in the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic: Spatiotemporal variation, and implications for estimating transmission.
In the recent 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa, non-hospitalized cases were an important component of the chain of transmission. However, non-hospitalized cases are at increased risk of going unreported because of barriers to access to healthcare. Furthermore, underreporting rates may fluctua...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:d3de79d448d14a849ae3beb34ab5e89a 2023-05-15T15:07:36+02:00 Unreported cases in the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic: Spatiotemporal variation, and implications for estimating transmission. Benjamin D Dalziel Max S Y Lau Amanda Tiffany Amanda McClelland Jon Zelner Jessica R Bliss Bryan T Grenfell 2018-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006161 https://doaj.org/article/d3de79d448d14a849ae3beb34ab5e89a EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5806896?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006161 https://doaj.org/article/d3de79d448d14a849ae3beb34ab5e89a PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 12, Iss 1, p e0006161 (2018) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006161 2022-12-31T02:10:49Z In the recent 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa, non-hospitalized cases were an important component of the chain of transmission. However, non-hospitalized cases are at increased risk of going unreported because of barriers to access to healthcare. Furthermore, underreporting rates may fluctuate over space and time, biasing estimates of disease transmission rates, which are important for understanding spread and planning control measures. We performed a retrospective analysis on community deaths during the recent Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone to estimate the number of unreported non-hospitalized cases, and to quantify how Ebola reporting rates varied across locations and over time. We then tested if variation in reporting rates affected the estimates of disease transmission rates that were used in surveillance and response. We found significant variation in reporting rates among districts, and district-specific rates of increase in reporting over time. Correcting time series of numbers of cases for variable reporting rates led, in some instances, to different estimates of the time-varying reproduction number of the epidemic, particularly outside the capital. Future analyses that compare Ebola transmission rates over time and across locations may be improved by considering the impacts of differential reporting rates. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 12 1 e0006161 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Benjamin D Dalziel Max S Y Lau Amanda Tiffany Amanda McClelland Jon Zelner Jessica R Bliss Bryan T Grenfell Unreported cases in the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic: Spatiotemporal variation, and implications for estimating transmission. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
In the recent 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa, non-hospitalized cases were an important component of the chain of transmission. However, non-hospitalized cases are at increased risk of going unreported because of barriers to access to healthcare. Furthermore, underreporting rates may fluctuate over space and time, biasing estimates of disease transmission rates, which are important for understanding spread and planning control measures. We performed a retrospective analysis on community deaths during the recent Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone to estimate the number of unreported non-hospitalized cases, and to quantify how Ebola reporting rates varied across locations and over time. We then tested if variation in reporting rates affected the estimates of disease transmission rates that were used in surveillance and response. We found significant variation in reporting rates among districts, and district-specific rates of increase in reporting over time. Correcting time series of numbers of cases for variable reporting rates led, in some instances, to different estimates of the time-varying reproduction number of the epidemic, particularly outside the capital. Future analyses that compare Ebola transmission rates over time and across locations may be improved by considering the impacts of differential reporting rates. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Benjamin D Dalziel Max S Y Lau Amanda Tiffany Amanda McClelland Jon Zelner Jessica R Bliss Bryan T Grenfell |
author_facet |
Benjamin D Dalziel Max S Y Lau Amanda Tiffany Amanda McClelland Jon Zelner Jessica R Bliss Bryan T Grenfell |
author_sort |
Benjamin D Dalziel |
title |
Unreported cases in the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic: Spatiotemporal variation, and implications for estimating transmission. |
title_short |
Unreported cases in the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic: Spatiotemporal variation, and implications for estimating transmission. |
title_full |
Unreported cases in the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic: Spatiotemporal variation, and implications for estimating transmission. |
title_fullStr |
Unreported cases in the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic: Spatiotemporal variation, and implications for estimating transmission. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Unreported cases in the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic: Spatiotemporal variation, and implications for estimating transmission. |
title_sort |
unreported cases in the 2014-2016 ebola epidemic: spatiotemporal variation, and implications for estimating transmission. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006161 https://doaj.org/article/d3de79d448d14a849ae3beb34ab5e89a |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 12, Iss 1, p e0006161 (2018) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5806896?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006161 https://doaj.org/article/d3de79d448d14a849ae3beb34ab5e89a |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006161 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
e0006161 |
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1766339077389418496 |