Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model
This paper presents a system to perform large-ensemble climate stochastic forecasts. The system is based on random analogue sampling of sea-level pressure data from the NCEP reanalysis. It is tested to forecast a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the daily average temperature in five Europe...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:d3b7178bdf224a45b0b57901fc5760c5 2023-05-15T17:31:48+02:00 Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model P. Yiou C. Déandréis 2019-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019 https://doaj.org/article/d3b7178bdf224a45b0b57901fc5760c5 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/723/2019/gmd-12-723-2019.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1991-959X https://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603 doi:10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019 1991-959X 1991-9603 https://doaj.org/article/d3b7178bdf224a45b0b57901fc5760c5 Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 12, Pp 723-734 (2019) Geology QE1-996.5 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019 2022-12-31T09:04:55Z This paper presents a system to perform large-ensemble climate stochastic forecasts. The system is based on random analogue sampling of sea-level pressure data from the NCEP reanalysis. It is tested to forecast a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the daily average temperature in five European stations. We simulated 100-member ensembles of averages over lead times from 5 days to 80 days in a hindcast mode, i.e., from a meteorological to a seasonal forecast. We tested the hindcast simulations with the usual forecast skill scores (CRPS or correlation) against persistence and climatology. We find significantly positive skill scores for all timescales. Although this model cannot outperform numerical weather prediction, it presents an interesting benchmark that could complement climatology or persistence forecast. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Geoscientific Model Development 12 2 723 734 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Geology QE1-996.5 |
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Geology QE1-996.5 P. Yiou C. Déandréis Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model |
topic_facet |
Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
This paper presents a system to perform large-ensemble climate stochastic forecasts. The system is based on random analogue sampling of sea-level pressure data from the NCEP reanalysis. It is tested to forecast a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the daily average temperature in five European stations. We simulated 100-member ensembles of averages over lead times from 5 days to 80 days in a hindcast mode, i.e., from a meteorological to a seasonal forecast. We tested the hindcast simulations with the usual forecast skill scores (CRPS or correlation) against persistence and climatology. We find significantly positive skill scores for all timescales. Although this model cannot outperform numerical weather prediction, it presents an interesting benchmark that could complement climatology or persistence forecast. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
P. Yiou C. Déandréis |
author_facet |
P. Yiou C. Déandréis |
author_sort |
P. Yiou |
title |
Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model |
title_short |
Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model |
title_full |
Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model |
title_fullStr |
Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model |
title_sort |
stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019 https://doaj.org/article/d3b7178bdf224a45b0b57901fc5760c5 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 12, Pp 723-734 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/723/2019/gmd-12-723-2019.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1991-959X https://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603 doi:10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019 1991-959X 1991-9603 https://doaj.org/article/d3b7178bdf224a45b0b57901fc5760c5 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019 |
container_title |
Geoscientific Model Development |
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12 |
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2 |
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723 |
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734 |
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1766129570187051008 |