Forecasting of Energy and Petroleum Consumption by Motor Transport in the Regions of the Russian Federation
The paper offers the directions for the improvement of methodological approach to forecasting the energy consumption in transport, taking into account special features of Russian regions. The authors developed a multivariate model allowing to predict the motor vehicle rate specified for the regions...
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Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch
2017
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:d32e96468b68448cbf5f4e8eab60b350 2023-10-01T03:55:25+02:00 Forecasting of Energy and Petroleum Consumption by Motor Transport in the Regions of the Russian Federation Leontiy Viktorovich Eder Irina Viktorovna Filimonova Vasily Yuryevich Nemov Irina Viktorovna Provornaya 2017-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.17059/2017-3-18 https://doaj.org/article/d32e96468b68448cbf5f4e8eab60b350 EN RU eng rus Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch http://www.economyofregion.com/archive/2017/66/2968/pdf/ https://doaj.org/toc/2072-6414 https://doaj.org/toc/2411-1406 doi:10.17059/2017-3-18 2072-6414 2411-1406 https://doaj.org/article/d32e96468b68448cbf5f4e8eab60b350 Экономика региона, Vol 13, Iss 3, Pp 859-870 (2017) energy consumption motor transport forecasting oil-products alternative energy source subjects of the Russian Federation Federal districts energy efficiency structure of vehicles energy market forecasts Regional economics. Space in economics HT388 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.17059/2017-3-18 2023-09-03T00:46:36Z The paper offers the directions for the improvement of methodological approach to forecasting the energy consumption in transport, taking into account special features of Russian regions. The authors developed a multivariate model allowing to predict the motor vehicle rate specified for the regions of the Russian Federation depending on the economic, social and institutional features. We formalized the dynamic (trend) model for predicting the effectiveness of energy consumption per unit of the vehicle in Russia with details on Federal districts. In the study, in predicting the number of motor transport, the authors applied the methods of economic and mathematical simulation modelling based on the results of the econometric analysis for the calculation of the population having motor transport. In determining the potential specific energy consumption, we have aggregated trending patterns and convergence. The study has shown that by 2040, the number of passenger cars in Russia will grow to 57.1 million, and the total number of all types of road transport will grow by 14.9 million units to 66.2 million. The highest growth rates are predicted in the Central regions of Russia and in some areas of Siberia. The smallest growth rates are expected in the Chukotka Autonomous District, Kamchatka and Primorsky regions. Energy efficiency in transport and active introduction of alternative motor fuels, primarily methane, will reduce the consumption of gasoline and diesel fuel by motor transport. Thus, in the forecast period of 2018–2040, the consumption of petroleum products by motor transport will be reduced by 8.9 million tons: from 61,9 million tons of oil to 51.7 million tons of oil. The results of the study can be applied for the formulation of proposals on the creation of scientific and methodological apparatus to predict the development of transport sector and oil products supply in of the regions of Russia. Article in Journal/Newspaper Chukotka Kamchatka Siberia Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Economy of Region 859 870 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English Russian |
topic |
energy consumption motor transport forecasting oil-products alternative energy source subjects of the Russian Federation Federal districts energy efficiency structure of vehicles energy market forecasts Regional economics. Space in economics HT388 |
spellingShingle |
energy consumption motor transport forecasting oil-products alternative energy source subjects of the Russian Federation Federal districts energy efficiency structure of vehicles energy market forecasts Regional economics. Space in economics HT388 Leontiy Viktorovich Eder Irina Viktorovna Filimonova Vasily Yuryevich Nemov Irina Viktorovna Provornaya Forecasting of Energy and Petroleum Consumption by Motor Transport in the Regions of the Russian Federation |
topic_facet |
energy consumption motor transport forecasting oil-products alternative energy source subjects of the Russian Federation Federal districts energy efficiency structure of vehicles energy market forecasts Regional economics. Space in economics HT388 |
description |
The paper offers the directions for the improvement of methodological approach to forecasting the energy consumption in transport, taking into account special features of Russian regions. The authors developed a multivariate model allowing to predict the motor vehicle rate specified for the regions of the Russian Federation depending on the economic, social and institutional features. We formalized the dynamic (trend) model for predicting the effectiveness of energy consumption per unit of the vehicle in Russia with details on Federal districts. In the study, in predicting the number of motor transport, the authors applied the methods of economic and mathematical simulation modelling based on the results of the econometric analysis for the calculation of the population having motor transport. In determining the potential specific energy consumption, we have aggregated trending patterns and convergence. The study has shown that by 2040, the number of passenger cars in Russia will grow to 57.1 million, and the total number of all types of road transport will grow by 14.9 million units to 66.2 million. The highest growth rates are predicted in the Central regions of Russia and in some areas of Siberia. The smallest growth rates are expected in the Chukotka Autonomous District, Kamchatka and Primorsky regions. Energy efficiency in transport and active introduction of alternative motor fuels, primarily methane, will reduce the consumption of gasoline and diesel fuel by motor transport. Thus, in the forecast period of 2018–2040, the consumption of petroleum products by motor transport will be reduced by 8.9 million tons: from 61,9 million tons of oil to 51.7 million tons of oil. The results of the study can be applied for the formulation of proposals on the creation of scientific and methodological apparatus to predict the development of transport sector and oil products supply in of the regions of Russia. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Leontiy Viktorovich Eder Irina Viktorovna Filimonova Vasily Yuryevich Nemov Irina Viktorovna Provornaya |
author_facet |
Leontiy Viktorovich Eder Irina Viktorovna Filimonova Vasily Yuryevich Nemov Irina Viktorovna Provornaya |
author_sort |
Leontiy Viktorovich Eder |
title |
Forecasting of Energy and Petroleum Consumption by Motor Transport in the Regions of the Russian Federation |
title_short |
Forecasting of Energy and Petroleum Consumption by Motor Transport in the Regions of the Russian Federation |
title_full |
Forecasting of Energy and Petroleum Consumption by Motor Transport in the Regions of the Russian Federation |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting of Energy and Petroleum Consumption by Motor Transport in the Regions of the Russian Federation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting of Energy and Petroleum Consumption by Motor Transport in the Regions of the Russian Federation |
title_sort |
forecasting of energy and petroleum consumption by motor transport in the regions of the russian federation |
publisher |
Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.17059/2017-3-18 https://doaj.org/article/d32e96468b68448cbf5f4e8eab60b350 |
genre |
Chukotka Kamchatka Siberia |
genre_facet |
Chukotka Kamchatka Siberia |
op_source |
Экономика региона, Vol 13, Iss 3, Pp 859-870 (2017) |
op_relation |
http://www.economyofregion.com/archive/2017/66/2968/pdf/ https://doaj.org/toc/2072-6414 https://doaj.org/toc/2411-1406 doi:10.17059/2017-3-18 2072-6414 2411-1406 https://doaj.org/article/d32e96468b68448cbf5f4e8eab60b350 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17059/2017-3-18 |
container_title |
Economy of Region |
container_start_page |
859 |
op_container_end_page |
870 |
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1778523862471802880 |