Modeling the geographic spread of rabies in China.
In order to investigate how the movement of dogs affects the geographically inter-provincial spread of rabies in Mainland China, we propose a multi-patch model to describe the transmission dynamics of rabies between dogs and humans, in which each province is regarded as a patch. In each patch the su...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:d30ac21dd3b34524b788610d5f46920a 2023-05-15T15:09:49+02:00 Modeling the geographic spread of rabies in China. Jing Chen Lan Zou Zhen Jin Shigui Ruan 2015-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003772 https://doaj.org/article/d30ac21dd3b34524b788610d5f46920a EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4447479?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003772 https://doaj.org/article/d30ac21dd3b34524b788610d5f46920a PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 9, Iss 5, p e0003772 (2015) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003772 2022-12-31T13:07:06Z In order to investigate how the movement of dogs affects the geographically inter-provincial spread of rabies in Mainland China, we propose a multi-patch model to describe the transmission dynamics of rabies between dogs and humans, in which each province is regarded as a patch. In each patch the submodel consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and vaccinated subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The existence of the disease-free equilibrium is discussed, the basic reproduction number is calculated, and the effect of moving rates of dogs between patches on the basic reproduction number is studied. To investigate the rabies virus clades lineages, the two-patch submodel is used to simulate the human rabies data from Guizhou and Guangxi, Hebei and Fujian, and Sichuan and Shaanxi, respectively. It is found that the basic reproduction number of the two-patch model could be larger than one even if the isolated basic reproduction number of each patch is less than one. This indicates that the immigration of dogs may make the disease endemic even if the disease dies out in each isolated patch when there is no immigration. In order to reduce and prevent geographical spread of rabies in China, our results suggest that the management of dog markets and trades needs to be regulated, and transportation of dogs has to be better monitored and under constant surveillance. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 9 5 e0003772 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Jing Chen Lan Zou Zhen Jin Shigui Ruan Modeling the geographic spread of rabies in China. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
In order to investigate how the movement of dogs affects the geographically inter-provincial spread of rabies in Mainland China, we propose a multi-patch model to describe the transmission dynamics of rabies between dogs and humans, in which each province is regarded as a patch. In each patch the submodel consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and vaccinated subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The existence of the disease-free equilibrium is discussed, the basic reproduction number is calculated, and the effect of moving rates of dogs between patches on the basic reproduction number is studied. To investigate the rabies virus clades lineages, the two-patch submodel is used to simulate the human rabies data from Guizhou and Guangxi, Hebei and Fujian, and Sichuan and Shaanxi, respectively. It is found that the basic reproduction number of the two-patch model could be larger than one even if the isolated basic reproduction number of each patch is less than one. This indicates that the immigration of dogs may make the disease endemic even if the disease dies out in each isolated patch when there is no immigration. In order to reduce and prevent geographical spread of rabies in China, our results suggest that the management of dog markets and trades needs to be regulated, and transportation of dogs has to be better monitored and under constant surveillance. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jing Chen Lan Zou Zhen Jin Shigui Ruan |
author_facet |
Jing Chen Lan Zou Zhen Jin Shigui Ruan |
author_sort |
Jing Chen |
title |
Modeling the geographic spread of rabies in China. |
title_short |
Modeling the geographic spread of rabies in China. |
title_full |
Modeling the geographic spread of rabies in China. |
title_fullStr |
Modeling the geographic spread of rabies in China. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling the geographic spread of rabies in China. |
title_sort |
modeling the geographic spread of rabies in china. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003772 https://doaj.org/article/d30ac21dd3b34524b788610d5f46920a |
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Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 9, Iss 5, p e0003772 (2015) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4447479?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003772 https://doaj.org/article/d30ac21dd3b34524b788610d5f46920a |
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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003772 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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5 |
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e0003772 |
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