Quantification of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise
During the Last Interglacial period (~ 130–115 thousand years ago) the Arctic climate was warmer than today, and global mean sea level was probably more than 6.6 m higher. However, there are large discrepancies in the estimated contributions to this sea level change from various sources (the Greenla...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:d2425196aeb942dfa69e8d99116d3572 2023-05-15T13:46:47+02:00 Quantification of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise E. J. Stone D. J. Lunt J. D. Annan J. C. Hargreaves 2013-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-621-2013 https://doaj.org/article/d2425196aeb942dfa69e8d99116d3572 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.clim-past.net/9/621/2013/cp-9-621-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-9-621-2013 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/d2425196aeb942dfa69e8d99116d3572 Climate of the Past, Vol 9, Iss 2, Pp 621-639 (2013) Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-621-2013 2022-12-31T13:04:41Z During the Last Interglacial period (~ 130–115 thousand years ago) the Arctic climate was warmer than today, and global mean sea level was probably more than 6.6 m higher. However, there are large discrepancies in the estimated contributions to this sea level change from various sources (the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and smaller ice caps). Here, we determine probabilistically the likely contribution of Greenland ice sheet melt to Last Interglacial sea level rise, taking into account ice sheet model parametric uncertainty. We perform an ensemble of 500 Glimmer ice sheet model simulations forced with climatologies from the climate model HadCM3, and constrain the results with palaeodata from Greenland ice cores. Our results suggest a 90% probability that Greenland ice melt contributed at least 0.6 m, but less than 10% probability that it exceeded 3.5 m, a value which is lower than several recent estimates. Many of these previous estimates, however, did not include a full general circulation climate model that can capture atmospheric circulation and precipitation changes in response to changes in insolation forcing and orographic height. Our combined modelling and palaeodata approach suggests that the Greenland ice sheet is less sensitive to orbital forcing than previously thought, and it implicates Antarctic melt as providing a substantial contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise. Future work should assess additional uncertainty due to inclusion of basal sliding and the direct effect of insolation on surface melt. In addition, the effect of uncertainty arising from climate model structural design should be taken into account by performing a multi-climate-model comparison. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Greenland Greenland ice cores Ice Sheet Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Arctic Greenland Climate of the Past 9 2 621 639 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
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Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 E. J. Stone D. J. Lunt J. D. Annan J. C. Hargreaves Quantification of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise |
topic_facet |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
During the Last Interglacial period (~ 130–115 thousand years ago) the Arctic climate was warmer than today, and global mean sea level was probably more than 6.6 m higher. However, there are large discrepancies in the estimated contributions to this sea level change from various sources (the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and smaller ice caps). Here, we determine probabilistically the likely contribution of Greenland ice sheet melt to Last Interglacial sea level rise, taking into account ice sheet model parametric uncertainty. We perform an ensemble of 500 Glimmer ice sheet model simulations forced with climatologies from the climate model HadCM3, and constrain the results with palaeodata from Greenland ice cores. Our results suggest a 90% probability that Greenland ice melt contributed at least 0.6 m, but less than 10% probability that it exceeded 3.5 m, a value which is lower than several recent estimates. Many of these previous estimates, however, did not include a full general circulation climate model that can capture atmospheric circulation and precipitation changes in response to changes in insolation forcing and orographic height. Our combined modelling and palaeodata approach suggests that the Greenland ice sheet is less sensitive to orbital forcing than previously thought, and it implicates Antarctic melt as providing a substantial contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise. Future work should assess additional uncertainty due to inclusion of basal sliding and the direct effect of insolation on surface melt. In addition, the effect of uncertainty arising from climate model structural design should be taken into account by performing a multi-climate-model comparison. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
E. J. Stone D. J. Lunt J. D. Annan J. C. Hargreaves |
author_facet |
E. J. Stone D. J. Lunt J. D. Annan J. C. Hargreaves |
author_sort |
E. J. Stone |
title |
Quantification of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise |
title_short |
Quantification of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise |
title_full |
Quantification of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise |
title_fullStr |
Quantification of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantification of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise |
title_sort |
quantification of the greenland ice sheet contribution to last interglacial sea level rise |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-621-2013 https://doaj.org/article/d2425196aeb942dfa69e8d99116d3572 |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Greenland Greenland ice cores Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Greenland Greenland ice cores Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol 9, Iss 2, Pp 621-639 (2013) |
op_relation |
http://www.clim-past.net/9/621/2013/cp-9-621-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-9-621-2013 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/d2425196aeb942dfa69e8d99116d3572 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-621-2013 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
621 |
op_container_end_page |
639 |
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1766245216743849984 |