ADAPTIVE SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY AUTONOMOUS POWER SYSTEMS OF SMALL NORTHERN SETTLEMENTS BASED ON CORRELATION ANALYSIS METHODS
One of the main problems in building energy-efficient and non-resource-intensive decentralized power supply systems in the Arctic zone and regions of the Far North is forecasting the consumption of electrical energy by small northern settlements. Among the existing methods that give an acceptable re...
Published in: | Bulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University Geo Assets Engineering |
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Tomsk Polytechnic University
2023
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.18799/24131830/2023/2/4076 https://doaj.org/article/d159b4cbf6e34d32b2bbb5fad20272cf |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:d159b4cbf6e34d32b2bbb5fad20272cf 2023-05-15T15:03:38+02:00 ADAPTIVE SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY AUTONOMOUS POWER SYSTEMS OF SMALL NORTHERN SETTLEMENTS BASED ON CORRELATION ANALYSIS METHODS Yusup. N. Isaev Olga V. Arkhipova Vladimir Z. Kovalev Rustam N. Khamitov 2023-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.18799/24131830/2023/2/4076 https://doaj.org/article/d159b4cbf6e34d32b2bbb5fad20272cf RU rus Tomsk Polytechnic University http://izvestiya.tpu.ru/archive/article/view/4076/2908 https://doaj.org/toc/2500-1019 https://doaj.org/toc/2413-1830 doi:10.18799/24131830/2023/2/4076 2500-1019 2413-1830 https://doaj.org/article/d159b4cbf6e34d32b2bbb5fad20272cf Известия Томского политехнического университета: Инжиниринг георесурсов, Vol 334, Iss 2, Pp 224-239 (2023) stochastic series wold decomposition autocorrelation function partial correlation function autoregression moving average maximum likelihood function Engineering geology. Rock mechanics. Soil mechanics. Underground construction TA703-712 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.18799/24131830/2023/2/4076 2023-03-05T01:30:53Z One of the main problems in building energy-efficient and non-resource-intensive decentralized power supply systems in the Arctic zone and regions of the Far North is forecasting the consumption of electrical energy by small northern settlements. Among the existing methods that give an acceptable result in terms of accuracy, one can single out approaches based on the ARIMA econometric method. A method based on the Wold decomposition and correlation functions of the stochastic process is considered, an adaptive model of the difference equation is constructed, which makes it possible to predict energy consumption of the active power of autonomous systems of a small settlement in the interval of 0–4 hours, by reducing the stochastic process to a stationary Markov process with short memory. The purpose of the work is to build a methodology for short-term forecasting of electric energy consumption by autonomous energy systems of small northern settlements, taking into account the specifics of energy consumption in the conditions of the Arctic zone and the Far North, based on a stochastic series of data on electric energy consumed by the settlement over the previous period. Methods: approach to obtaining a short-term forecast of electricity consumption by autonomous energy systems of small northern settlements based on the ARIMA econometric method. In this case, a difference equation is constructed for the deterministic and random components of the available stochastic series of energy consumption; Wold decomposition and correlation functions of the energy consumption are used. To adapt the model, the studied stochastic process is reduced to a Markov process with a short memory. To do this, it is necessary to use a difference operator, which reduces the relative contribution of consumption deterministic component. Results. Based on Wold decomposition and correlation functions, it was possible to obtain a model that gives a short-term forecast of active power consumption for a lead time of 4 hours. Conclusions. Based ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Bulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University Geo Assets Engineering 334 2 224 239 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
Russian |
topic |
stochastic series wold decomposition autocorrelation function partial correlation function autoregression moving average maximum likelihood function Engineering geology. Rock mechanics. Soil mechanics. Underground construction TA703-712 |
spellingShingle |
stochastic series wold decomposition autocorrelation function partial correlation function autoregression moving average maximum likelihood function Engineering geology. Rock mechanics. Soil mechanics. Underground construction TA703-712 Yusup. N. Isaev Olga V. Arkhipova Vladimir Z. Kovalev Rustam N. Khamitov ADAPTIVE SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY AUTONOMOUS POWER SYSTEMS OF SMALL NORTHERN SETTLEMENTS BASED ON CORRELATION ANALYSIS METHODS |
topic_facet |
stochastic series wold decomposition autocorrelation function partial correlation function autoregression moving average maximum likelihood function Engineering geology. Rock mechanics. Soil mechanics. Underground construction TA703-712 |
description |
One of the main problems in building energy-efficient and non-resource-intensive decentralized power supply systems in the Arctic zone and regions of the Far North is forecasting the consumption of electrical energy by small northern settlements. Among the existing methods that give an acceptable result in terms of accuracy, one can single out approaches based on the ARIMA econometric method. A method based on the Wold decomposition and correlation functions of the stochastic process is considered, an adaptive model of the difference equation is constructed, which makes it possible to predict energy consumption of the active power of autonomous systems of a small settlement in the interval of 0–4 hours, by reducing the stochastic process to a stationary Markov process with short memory. The purpose of the work is to build a methodology for short-term forecasting of electric energy consumption by autonomous energy systems of small northern settlements, taking into account the specifics of energy consumption in the conditions of the Arctic zone and the Far North, based on a stochastic series of data on electric energy consumed by the settlement over the previous period. Methods: approach to obtaining a short-term forecast of electricity consumption by autonomous energy systems of small northern settlements based on the ARIMA econometric method. In this case, a difference equation is constructed for the deterministic and random components of the available stochastic series of energy consumption; Wold decomposition and correlation functions of the energy consumption are used. To adapt the model, the studied stochastic process is reduced to a Markov process with a short memory. To do this, it is necessary to use a difference operator, which reduces the relative contribution of consumption deterministic component. Results. Based on Wold decomposition and correlation functions, it was possible to obtain a model that gives a short-term forecast of active power consumption for a lead time of 4 hours. Conclusions. Based ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yusup. N. Isaev Olga V. Arkhipova Vladimir Z. Kovalev Rustam N. Khamitov |
author_facet |
Yusup. N. Isaev Olga V. Arkhipova Vladimir Z. Kovalev Rustam N. Khamitov |
author_sort |
Yusup. N. Isaev |
title |
ADAPTIVE SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY AUTONOMOUS POWER SYSTEMS OF SMALL NORTHERN SETTLEMENTS BASED ON CORRELATION ANALYSIS METHODS |
title_short |
ADAPTIVE SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY AUTONOMOUS POWER SYSTEMS OF SMALL NORTHERN SETTLEMENTS BASED ON CORRELATION ANALYSIS METHODS |
title_full |
ADAPTIVE SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY AUTONOMOUS POWER SYSTEMS OF SMALL NORTHERN SETTLEMENTS BASED ON CORRELATION ANALYSIS METHODS |
title_fullStr |
ADAPTIVE SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY AUTONOMOUS POWER SYSTEMS OF SMALL NORTHERN SETTLEMENTS BASED ON CORRELATION ANALYSIS METHODS |
title_full_unstemmed |
ADAPTIVE SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY AUTONOMOUS POWER SYSTEMS OF SMALL NORTHERN SETTLEMENTS BASED ON CORRELATION ANALYSIS METHODS |
title_sort |
adaptive short-term forecasting of electricity consumption by autonomous power systems of small northern settlements based on correlation analysis methods |
publisher |
Tomsk Polytechnic University |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.18799/24131830/2023/2/4076 https://doaj.org/article/d159b4cbf6e34d32b2bbb5fad20272cf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Известия Томского политехнического университета: Инжиниринг георесурсов, Vol 334, Iss 2, Pp 224-239 (2023) |
op_relation |
http://izvestiya.tpu.ru/archive/article/view/4076/2908 https://doaj.org/toc/2500-1019 https://doaj.org/toc/2413-1830 doi:10.18799/24131830/2023/2/4076 2500-1019 2413-1830 https://doaj.org/article/d159b4cbf6e34d32b2bbb5fad20272cf |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.18799/24131830/2023/2/4076 |
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