ADAPTIVE SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY AUTONOMOUS POWER SYSTEMS OF SMALL NORTHERN SETTLEMENTS BASED ON CORRELATION ANALYSIS METHODS

• Published in: Bulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University Geo Assets Engineering
• Main Authors: Yusup. N. Isaev, Olga V. Arkhipova, Vladimir Z. Kovalev, Rustam N. Khamitov
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: Russian
• Published: Tomsk Polytechnic University 2023
• Subjects: stochastic series; wold decomposition; autocorrelation function; partial correlation function; autoregression; moving average; maximum likelihood function; Engineering geology. Rock mechanics. Soil mechanics. Underground construction; TA703-712; Arctic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.18799/24131830/2023/2/4076; https://doaj.org/article/d159b4cbf6e34d32b2bbb5fad20272cf

One of the main problems in building energy-efficient and non-resource-intensive decentralized power supply systems in the Arctic zone and regions of the Far North is forecasting the consumption of electrical energy by small northern settlements. Among the existing methods that give an acceptable result in terms of accuracy, one can single out approaches based on the ARIMA econometric method. A method based on the Wold decomposition and correlation functions of the stochastic process is considered, an adaptive model of the difference equation is constructed, which makes it possible to predict energy consumption of the active power of autonomous systems of a small settlement in the interval of 0–4 hours, by reducing the stochastic process to a stationary Markov process with short memory. The purpose of the work is to build a methodology for short-term forecasting of electric energy consumption by autonomous energy systems of small northern settlements, taking into account the specifics of energy consumption in the conditions of the Arctic zone and the Far North, based on a stochastic series of data on electric energy consumed by the settlement over the previous period. Methods: approach to obtaining a short-term forecast of electricity consumption by autonomous energy systems of small northern settlements based on the ARIMA econometric method. In this case, a difference equation is constructed for the deterministic and random components of the available stochastic series of energy consumption; Wold decomposition and correlation functions of the energy consumption are used. To adapt the model, the studied stochastic process is reduced to a Markov process with a short memory. To do this, it is necessary to use a difference operator, which reduces the relative contribution of consumption deterministic component. Results. Based on Wold decomposition and correlation functions, it was possible to obtain a model that gives a short-term forecast of active power consumption for a lead time of 4 hours. Conclusions. Based ...