Total Electron Content PCA-NN Prediction Model for South-European Middle Latitudes
A regression-based model was previously developed to forecast total electron content (TEC) at middle latitudes. We present a more sophisticated model using neural networks (NN) instead of linear regression. This regional model prototype simulates and forecasts TEC variations in relation to space wea...
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2023
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14071058 https://doaj.org/article/d0f9bae0431b4d18b22845a3f1ee3143 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:d0f9bae0431b4d18b22845a3f1ee3143 2023-08-20T04:08:23+02:00 Total Electron Content PCA-NN Prediction Model for South-European Middle Latitudes Anna Morozova Teresa Barata Tatiana Barlyaeva Ricardo Gafeira 2023-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14071058 https://doaj.org/article/d0f9bae0431b4d18b22845a3f1ee3143 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/7/1058 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos14071058 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/d0f9bae0431b4d18b22845a3f1ee3143 Atmosphere, Vol 14, Iss 1058, p 1058 (2023) ionosphere total electron content prediction middle latitudes neural networks space weather Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14071058 2023-07-30T00:36:26Z A regression-based model was previously developed to forecast total electron content (TEC) at middle latitudes. We present a more sophisticated model using neural networks (NN) instead of linear regression. This regional model prototype simulates and forecasts TEC variations in relation to space weather conditions. The development of a prototype consisted of the selection of the best set of predictors, NN architecture, and the length of the input series. Tests made using the data from December 2014 to June 2018 show that the PCA-NN model based on a simple feed-forward NN with a very limited number (up to six) of space weather predictors performs better than the PCA-MRM model that uses up to 27 space weather predictors. The prototype is developed on a TEC series obtained from a GNSS receiver at Lisbon airport and tested on TEC series from three other locations at middle latitudes of the Eastern North Atlantic. Conclusions on the dependence of the forecast quality on longitude and latitude are made. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Atmosphere 14 7 1058 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
ionosphere total electron content prediction middle latitudes neural networks space weather Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
ionosphere total electron content prediction middle latitudes neural networks space weather Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Anna Morozova Teresa Barata Tatiana Barlyaeva Ricardo Gafeira Total Electron Content PCA-NN Prediction Model for South-European Middle Latitudes |
topic_facet |
ionosphere total electron content prediction middle latitudes neural networks space weather Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
A regression-based model was previously developed to forecast total electron content (TEC) at middle latitudes. We present a more sophisticated model using neural networks (NN) instead of linear regression. This regional model prototype simulates and forecasts TEC variations in relation to space weather conditions. The development of a prototype consisted of the selection of the best set of predictors, NN architecture, and the length of the input series. Tests made using the data from December 2014 to June 2018 show that the PCA-NN model based on a simple feed-forward NN with a very limited number (up to six) of space weather predictors performs better than the PCA-MRM model that uses up to 27 space weather predictors. The prototype is developed on a TEC series obtained from a GNSS receiver at Lisbon airport and tested on TEC series from three other locations at middle latitudes of the Eastern North Atlantic. Conclusions on the dependence of the forecast quality on longitude and latitude are made. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Anna Morozova Teresa Barata Tatiana Barlyaeva Ricardo Gafeira |
author_facet |
Anna Morozova Teresa Barata Tatiana Barlyaeva Ricardo Gafeira |
author_sort |
Anna Morozova |
title |
Total Electron Content PCA-NN Prediction Model for South-European Middle Latitudes |
title_short |
Total Electron Content PCA-NN Prediction Model for South-European Middle Latitudes |
title_full |
Total Electron Content PCA-NN Prediction Model for South-European Middle Latitudes |
title_fullStr |
Total Electron Content PCA-NN Prediction Model for South-European Middle Latitudes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Total Electron Content PCA-NN Prediction Model for South-European Middle Latitudes |
title_sort |
total electron content pca-nn prediction model for south-european middle latitudes |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14071058 https://doaj.org/article/d0f9bae0431b4d18b22845a3f1ee3143 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Atmosphere, Vol 14, Iss 1058, p 1058 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/7/1058 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos14071058 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/d0f9bae0431b4d18b22845a3f1ee3143 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14071058 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
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14 |
container_issue |
7 |
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1058 |
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1774720610438479872 |