Forecast of temperature changes in the Altai in the next 50 years based on reconstructed ice core data from Belukha Mountain
Paleotemperature time series reconstructed from δ¹⁸O changes in Belukha ice core were expanded into several heteroperiodic sinusoidal functions with the help of the spectral Fourier analysis. The main harmonics selected from obtained periodogram have allowed to perform (without taking into account t...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:d0532acc211848f4938a4ba34914831b 2023-05-15T16:38:41+02:00 Forecast of temperature changes in the Altai in the next 50 years based on reconstructed ice core data from Belukha Mountain T. S. Papina O. V. Lovtskaya N. S. Malygina S. S. Eyrikh 2015-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2013-3-26-32 https://doaj.org/article/d0532acc211848f4938a4ba34914831b RU rus Nauka https://ice-snow.igras.ru/jour/article/view/114 https://doaj.org/toc/2076-6734 https://doaj.org/toc/2412-3765 2076-6734 2412-3765 doi:10.15356/2076-6734-2013-3-26-32 https://doaj.org/article/d0532acc211848f4938a4ba34914831b Лëд и снег, Vol 53, Iss 3, Pp 26-32 (2015) altai forecast of climate change fourier analysis ice core Science Q article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2013-3-26-32 2023-03-19T01:40:13Z Paleotemperature time series reconstructed from δ¹⁸O changes in Belukha ice core were expanded into several heteroperiodic sinusoidal functions with the help of the spectral Fourier analysis. The main harmonics selected from obtained periodogram have allowed to perform (without taking into account the contribution of changes in the existing anthropogenic load) scenario forecasts of average annual (from March to November) temperature changes in the Altai region in the nearest future (until 2050). Forecast shows that a cold phase came to Altai since 2008 reaches its maximum by 2020. Then after the 15-year period of temperature increase a cold phase will come back after 2035. Our forecast agrees very well with the forecast made from the natural climatic variability (for example, the change of global temperature for the last 150 years). Article in Journal/Newspaper ice core Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Ice and Snow 123 3 26 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
Russian |
topic |
altai forecast of climate change fourier analysis ice core Science Q |
spellingShingle |
altai forecast of climate change fourier analysis ice core Science Q T. S. Papina O. V. Lovtskaya N. S. Malygina S. S. Eyrikh Forecast of temperature changes in the Altai in the next 50 years based on reconstructed ice core data from Belukha Mountain |
topic_facet |
altai forecast of climate change fourier analysis ice core Science Q |
description |
Paleotemperature time series reconstructed from δ¹⁸O changes in Belukha ice core were expanded into several heteroperiodic sinusoidal functions with the help of the spectral Fourier analysis. The main harmonics selected from obtained periodogram have allowed to perform (without taking into account the contribution of changes in the existing anthropogenic load) scenario forecasts of average annual (from March to November) temperature changes in the Altai region in the nearest future (until 2050). Forecast shows that a cold phase came to Altai since 2008 reaches its maximum by 2020. Then after the 15-year period of temperature increase a cold phase will come back after 2035. Our forecast agrees very well with the forecast made from the natural climatic variability (for example, the change of global temperature for the last 150 years). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
T. S. Papina O. V. Lovtskaya N. S. Malygina S. S. Eyrikh |
author_facet |
T. S. Papina O. V. Lovtskaya N. S. Malygina S. S. Eyrikh |
author_sort |
T. S. Papina |
title |
Forecast of temperature changes in the Altai in the next 50 years based on reconstructed ice core data from Belukha Mountain |
title_short |
Forecast of temperature changes in the Altai in the next 50 years based on reconstructed ice core data from Belukha Mountain |
title_full |
Forecast of temperature changes in the Altai in the next 50 years based on reconstructed ice core data from Belukha Mountain |
title_fullStr |
Forecast of temperature changes in the Altai in the next 50 years based on reconstructed ice core data from Belukha Mountain |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecast of temperature changes in the Altai in the next 50 years based on reconstructed ice core data from Belukha Mountain |
title_sort |
forecast of temperature changes in the altai in the next 50 years based on reconstructed ice core data from belukha mountain |
publisher |
Nauka |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2013-3-26-32 https://doaj.org/article/d0532acc211848f4938a4ba34914831b |
genre |
ice core |
genre_facet |
ice core |
op_source |
Лëд и снег, Vol 53, Iss 3, Pp 26-32 (2015) |
op_relation |
https://ice-snow.igras.ru/jour/article/view/114 https://doaj.org/toc/2076-6734 https://doaj.org/toc/2412-3765 2076-6734 2412-3765 doi:10.15356/2076-6734-2013-3-26-32 https://doaj.org/article/d0532acc211848f4938a4ba34914831b |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2013-3-26-32 |
container_title |
Ice and Snow |
container_volume |
123 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
26 |
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1766029011880771584 |