Long-range movements coupled with heterogeneous incubation period sustain dog rabies at the national scale in Africa.
Dog-transmitted rabies is responsible for more than 98% of human cases worldwide, remaining a persistent problem in developing countries. Mass vaccination targets predominantly major cities, often compromising disease control due to re-introductions. Previous work suggested that areas neighboring ci...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:cfdd3a22aaf04280ae8606f6cd3c427a 2023-05-15T15:05:37+02:00 Long-range movements coupled with heterogeneous incubation period sustain dog rabies at the national scale in Africa. Davide Colombi Chiara Poletto Emmanuel Nakouné Hervé Bourhy Vittoria Colizza 2020-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008317 https://doaj.org/article/cfdd3a22aaf04280ae8606f6cd3c427a EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008317 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008317 https://doaj.org/article/cfdd3a22aaf04280ae8606f6cd3c427a PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 14, Iss 5, p e0008317 (2020) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008317 2022-12-31T11:51:02Z Dog-transmitted rabies is responsible for more than 98% of human cases worldwide, remaining a persistent problem in developing countries. Mass vaccination targets predominantly major cities, often compromising disease control due to re-introductions. Previous work suggested that areas neighboring cities may behave as the source of these re-introductions. To evaluate this hypothesis, we introduce a spatially explicit metapopulation model for rabies diffusion in Central African Republic. Calibrated on epidemiological data for the capital city, Bangui, the model predicts that long-range movements are essential for continuous re-introductions of rabies-exposed dogs across settlements, eased by the large fluctuations of the incubation period. Bangui's neighborhood, instead, would not be enough to self-sustain the epidemic, contrary to previous expectations. Our findings suggest that restricting long-range travels may be very efficient in limiting rabies persistence in a large and fragmented dog population. Our framework can be applied to other geographical contexts where dog rabies is endemic. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 14 5 e0008317 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Davide Colombi Chiara Poletto Emmanuel Nakouné Hervé Bourhy Vittoria Colizza Long-range movements coupled with heterogeneous incubation period sustain dog rabies at the national scale in Africa. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Dog-transmitted rabies is responsible for more than 98% of human cases worldwide, remaining a persistent problem in developing countries. Mass vaccination targets predominantly major cities, often compromising disease control due to re-introductions. Previous work suggested that areas neighboring cities may behave as the source of these re-introductions. To evaluate this hypothesis, we introduce a spatially explicit metapopulation model for rabies diffusion in Central African Republic. Calibrated on epidemiological data for the capital city, Bangui, the model predicts that long-range movements are essential for continuous re-introductions of rabies-exposed dogs across settlements, eased by the large fluctuations of the incubation period. Bangui's neighborhood, instead, would not be enough to self-sustain the epidemic, contrary to previous expectations. Our findings suggest that restricting long-range travels may be very efficient in limiting rabies persistence in a large and fragmented dog population. Our framework can be applied to other geographical contexts where dog rabies is endemic. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Davide Colombi Chiara Poletto Emmanuel Nakouné Hervé Bourhy Vittoria Colizza |
author_facet |
Davide Colombi Chiara Poletto Emmanuel Nakouné Hervé Bourhy Vittoria Colizza |
author_sort |
Davide Colombi |
title |
Long-range movements coupled with heterogeneous incubation period sustain dog rabies at the national scale in Africa. |
title_short |
Long-range movements coupled with heterogeneous incubation period sustain dog rabies at the national scale in Africa. |
title_full |
Long-range movements coupled with heterogeneous incubation period sustain dog rabies at the national scale in Africa. |
title_fullStr |
Long-range movements coupled with heterogeneous incubation period sustain dog rabies at the national scale in Africa. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Long-range movements coupled with heterogeneous incubation period sustain dog rabies at the national scale in Africa. |
title_sort |
long-range movements coupled with heterogeneous incubation period sustain dog rabies at the national scale in africa. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008317 https://doaj.org/article/cfdd3a22aaf04280ae8606f6cd3c427a |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 14, Iss 5, p e0008317 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008317 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008317 https://doaj.org/article/cfdd3a22aaf04280ae8606f6cd3c427a |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008317 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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14 |
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5 |
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e0008317 |
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