Extrapolating future Arctic ozone losses
Future increases in the concentration of greenhouse gases and water vapour may cool the stratosphere further and increase the amount of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). Future Arctic PSC areas have been extrapolated from the highly significant trends 1958-2001. Using a tight correlation between PS...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:ce5cde6ad17e45c4b7aa3bdfa0101380 2023-05-15T14:47:48+02:00 Extrapolating future Arctic ozone losses B. M. Knudsen N. R. P. Harris S. B. Andersen B. Christiansen N. Larsen M. Rex B. Naujokat 2004-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doaj.org/article/ce5cde6ad17e45c4b7aa3bdfa0101380 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/4/1849/2004/acp-4-1849-2004.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/ce5cde6ad17e45c4b7aa3bdfa0101380 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 4, Iss 7, Pp 1849-1856 (2004) Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 article 2004 ftdoajarticles 2022-12-31T06:19:51Z Future increases in the concentration of greenhouse gases and water vapour may cool the stratosphere further and increase the amount of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). Future Arctic PSC areas have been extrapolated from the highly significant trends 1958-2001. Using a tight correlation between PSC area and the total vortex ozone depletion and taking the decreasing amounts of ozone depleting substances into account we make empirical estimates of future ozone. The result is that Arctic ozone losses increase until 2010-2015 and decrease only slightly afterwards. However, for such a long extrapolation into the future caution is necessary. Tentatively taking the modelled decrease in the ozone trend in the future into account results in almost constant ozone depletions until 2020 and slight decreases afterwards. This approach is a complementary method of prediction to that based on the complex coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs). Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 B. M. Knudsen N. R. P. Harris S. B. Andersen B. Christiansen N. Larsen M. Rex B. Naujokat Extrapolating future Arctic ozone losses |
topic_facet |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
description |
Future increases in the concentration of greenhouse gases and water vapour may cool the stratosphere further and increase the amount of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). Future Arctic PSC areas have been extrapolated from the highly significant trends 1958-2001. Using a tight correlation between PSC area and the total vortex ozone depletion and taking the decreasing amounts of ozone depleting substances into account we make empirical estimates of future ozone. The result is that Arctic ozone losses increase until 2010-2015 and decrease only slightly afterwards. However, for such a long extrapolation into the future caution is necessary. Tentatively taking the modelled decrease in the ozone trend in the future into account results in almost constant ozone depletions until 2020 and slight decreases afterwards. This approach is a complementary method of prediction to that based on the complex coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
B. M. Knudsen N. R. P. Harris S. B. Andersen B. Christiansen N. Larsen M. Rex B. Naujokat |
author_facet |
B. M. Knudsen N. R. P. Harris S. B. Andersen B. Christiansen N. Larsen M. Rex B. Naujokat |
author_sort |
B. M. Knudsen |
title |
Extrapolating future Arctic ozone losses |
title_short |
Extrapolating future Arctic ozone losses |
title_full |
Extrapolating future Arctic ozone losses |
title_fullStr |
Extrapolating future Arctic ozone losses |
title_full_unstemmed |
Extrapolating future Arctic ozone losses |
title_sort |
extrapolating future arctic ozone losses |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2004 |
url |
https://doaj.org/article/ce5cde6ad17e45c4b7aa3bdfa0101380 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 4, Iss 7, Pp 1849-1856 (2004) |
op_relation |
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/4/1849/2004/acp-4-1849-2004.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/ce5cde6ad17e45c4b7aa3bdfa0101380 |
_version_ |
1766318920577318912 |