Assessing the economic viability of the Arctic Northeast Passage from 2021 to 2065
ABSTRACTThe Northeast Passage (NEP) holds immense potential as a link for maritime transport activities between Europe and Asia, primarily due to the extended sailing season resulting from global warming. However, the economic viability of the Arctic shipping route remains disputed. This study aims...
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2024
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:cd4c1a4d9b6c4aa08bbaed55fa755e97 2024-09-15T18:08:07+00:00 Assessing the economic viability of the Arctic Northeast Passage from 2021 to 2065 Adan Wu Tao Che Qingchao Xu Jiping Wang Jinlei Chen Xiaowen Zhu 2024-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2024.2323182 https://doaj.org/article/cd4c1a4d9b6c4aa08bbaed55fa755e97 EN eng Taylor & Francis Group https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17538947.2024.2323182 https://doaj.org/toc/1753-8947 https://doaj.org/toc/1753-8955 doi:10.1080/17538947.2024.2323182 1753-8955 1753-8947 https://doaj.org/article/cd4c1a4d9b6c4aa08bbaed55fa755e97 International Journal of Digital Earth, Vol 17, Iss 1 (2024) Arctic shipping Northeast Passage economic assessment CMIP6 reinforcement learning Mathematical geography. Cartography GA1-1776 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2024.2323182 2024-08-05T17:49:54Z ABSTRACTThe Northeast Passage (NEP) holds immense potential as a link for maritime transport activities between Europe and Asia, primarily due to the extended sailing season resulting from global warming. However, the economic viability of the Arctic shipping route remains disputed. This study aims to comprehensively evaluate the feasibility of container transportation along the NEP compared to that along the Suez Canal Route (SCR) by using current (2021–2023) and future (2025–2065) scenarios. The results reveal that larger vessels have lower CO2 emissions and costs than small vessels in the NEP, but the costs for larger vessels in the NEP are still higher than those in the SCR throughout both summer and winter seasons under the current scenario. The outcomes also show that a progressive carbon tax scheme will increase the unit shipping costs for all routes in the future scenario, with the NEP being most economically viable during summer. Furthermore, the extended navigable period (NP) bolsters the NEP’s economic cost advantage during a seasonal period. Nevertheless, from a year-round operations standpoint, the NEP remains less competitive than the SCR before 2065. The conclusions drawn from this research serve as a significant resource for decision-makers when formulating operational plans. Article in Journal/Newspaper Global warming Northeast Passage Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles International Journal of Digital Earth 17 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic shipping Northeast Passage economic assessment CMIP6 reinforcement learning Mathematical geography. Cartography GA1-1776 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic shipping Northeast Passage economic assessment CMIP6 reinforcement learning Mathematical geography. Cartography GA1-1776 Adan Wu Tao Che Qingchao Xu Jiping Wang Jinlei Chen Xiaowen Zhu Assessing the economic viability of the Arctic Northeast Passage from 2021 to 2065 |
topic_facet |
Arctic shipping Northeast Passage economic assessment CMIP6 reinforcement learning Mathematical geography. Cartography GA1-1776 |
description |
ABSTRACTThe Northeast Passage (NEP) holds immense potential as a link for maritime transport activities between Europe and Asia, primarily due to the extended sailing season resulting from global warming. However, the economic viability of the Arctic shipping route remains disputed. This study aims to comprehensively evaluate the feasibility of container transportation along the NEP compared to that along the Suez Canal Route (SCR) by using current (2021–2023) and future (2025–2065) scenarios. The results reveal that larger vessels have lower CO2 emissions and costs than small vessels in the NEP, but the costs for larger vessels in the NEP are still higher than those in the SCR throughout both summer and winter seasons under the current scenario. The outcomes also show that a progressive carbon tax scheme will increase the unit shipping costs for all routes in the future scenario, with the NEP being most economically viable during summer. Furthermore, the extended navigable period (NP) bolsters the NEP’s economic cost advantage during a seasonal period. Nevertheless, from a year-round operations standpoint, the NEP remains less competitive than the SCR before 2065. The conclusions drawn from this research serve as a significant resource for decision-makers when formulating operational plans. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Adan Wu Tao Che Qingchao Xu Jiping Wang Jinlei Chen Xiaowen Zhu |
author_facet |
Adan Wu Tao Che Qingchao Xu Jiping Wang Jinlei Chen Xiaowen Zhu |
author_sort |
Adan Wu |
title |
Assessing the economic viability of the Arctic Northeast Passage from 2021 to 2065 |
title_short |
Assessing the economic viability of the Arctic Northeast Passage from 2021 to 2065 |
title_full |
Assessing the economic viability of the Arctic Northeast Passage from 2021 to 2065 |
title_fullStr |
Assessing the economic viability of the Arctic Northeast Passage from 2021 to 2065 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing the economic viability of the Arctic Northeast Passage from 2021 to 2065 |
title_sort |
assessing the economic viability of the arctic northeast passage from 2021 to 2065 |
publisher |
Taylor & Francis Group |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2024.2323182 https://doaj.org/article/cd4c1a4d9b6c4aa08bbaed55fa755e97 |
genre |
Global warming Northeast Passage |
genre_facet |
Global warming Northeast Passage |
op_source |
International Journal of Digital Earth, Vol 17, Iss 1 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17538947.2024.2323182 https://doaj.org/toc/1753-8947 https://doaj.org/toc/1753-8955 doi:10.1080/17538947.2024.2323182 1753-8955 1753-8947 https://doaj.org/article/cd4c1a4d9b6c4aa08bbaed55fa755e97 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2024.2323182 |
container_title |
International Journal of Digital Earth |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1810445460650852352 |