Added value of assimilating springtime Arctic sea ice concentration in summer-fall climate predictions
Prediction skill of continental climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes is generally limited throughout the year in dynamical seasonal forecast systems. Such limitations narrow the range of possible applications by different stakeholders. Improving the predictive capacity in these regio...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6c9b https://doaj.org/article/cd430a2938fa4ea6b9b05e58ac576587 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:cd430a2938fa4ea6b9b05e58ac576587 2023-09-05T13:16:18+02:00 Added value of assimilating springtime Arctic sea ice concentration in summer-fall climate predictions J C Acosta Navarro J García-Serrano V Lapin P Ortega 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6c9b https://doaj.org/article/cd430a2938fa4ea6b9b05e58ac576587 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6c9b https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac6c9b 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/cd430a2938fa4ea6b9b05e58ac576587 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 17, Iss 6, p 064008 (2022) summer-fall climate Arctic sea ice midlatitude—Arctic linkages seasonal predictions atmospheric bridge Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6c9b 2023-08-13T00:36:40Z Prediction skill of continental climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes is generally limited throughout the year in dynamical seasonal forecast systems. Such limitations narrow the range of possible applications by different stakeholders. Improving the predictive capacity in these regions has been a challenging task. Sea ice is a central component of the Arctic climate system and a local source of climate predictability, yet its state is often not fully constrained in dynamical forecast systems. Using the EC-Earth3 climate model, we study the added value of assimilating observed Arctic sea ice concentration on the NH extratropical climate in retrospective forecasts of summer and fall, initialized every spring over 1992–2019. Predictions in the North Atlantic and Eurasia benefit from better initialization of sea ice in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic in a two-step mechanism. Initially, sea ice influences the central North Atlantic Ocean through an atmospheric bridge that develops in the first forecast weeks, subsequently leading to preserved skill in the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) throughout summer and early fall. Secondly, these long-lasting SST improvements provide better surface boundary conditions for the atmosphere and lead to more skillful predictions of circulation and surface climate in the Euro-Atlantic and Asian regions. In addition, our findings suggest that fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice models are likely necessary to study linkages between Arctic sea ice and midlatitudes, by better representing the interactions and feedbacks between the different components of the climate system. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Environmental Research Letters 17 6 064008 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
summer-fall climate Arctic sea ice midlatitude—Arctic linkages seasonal predictions atmospheric bridge Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
summer-fall climate Arctic sea ice midlatitude—Arctic linkages seasonal predictions atmospheric bridge Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 J C Acosta Navarro J García-Serrano V Lapin P Ortega Added value of assimilating springtime Arctic sea ice concentration in summer-fall climate predictions |
topic_facet |
summer-fall climate Arctic sea ice midlatitude—Arctic linkages seasonal predictions atmospheric bridge Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Prediction skill of continental climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes is generally limited throughout the year in dynamical seasonal forecast systems. Such limitations narrow the range of possible applications by different stakeholders. Improving the predictive capacity in these regions has been a challenging task. Sea ice is a central component of the Arctic climate system and a local source of climate predictability, yet its state is often not fully constrained in dynamical forecast systems. Using the EC-Earth3 climate model, we study the added value of assimilating observed Arctic sea ice concentration on the NH extratropical climate in retrospective forecasts of summer and fall, initialized every spring over 1992–2019. Predictions in the North Atlantic and Eurasia benefit from better initialization of sea ice in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic in a two-step mechanism. Initially, sea ice influences the central North Atlantic Ocean through an atmospheric bridge that develops in the first forecast weeks, subsequently leading to preserved skill in the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) throughout summer and early fall. Secondly, these long-lasting SST improvements provide better surface boundary conditions for the atmosphere and lead to more skillful predictions of circulation and surface climate in the Euro-Atlantic and Asian regions. In addition, our findings suggest that fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice models are likely necessary to study linkages between Arctic sea ice and midlatitudes, by better representing the interactions and feedbacks between the different components of the climate system. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
J C Acosta Navarro J García-Serrano V Lapin P Ortega |
author_facet |
J C Acosta Navarro J García-Serrano V Lapin P Ortega |
author_sort |
J C Acosta Navarro |
title |
Added value of assimilating springtime Arctic sea ice concentration in summer-fall climate predictions |
title_short |
Added value of assimilating springtime Arctic sea ice concentration in summer-fall climate predictions |
title_full |
Added value of assimilating springtime Arctic sea ice concentration in summer-fall climate predictions |
title_fullStr |
Added value of assimilating springtime Arctic sea ice concentration in summer-fall climate predictions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Added value of assimilating springtime Arctic sea ice concentration in summer-fall climate predictions |
title_sort |
added value of assimilating springtime arctic sea ice concentration in summer-fall climate predictions |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6c9b https://doaj.org/article/cd430a2938fa4ea6b9b05e58ac576587 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 17, Iss 6, p 064008 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6c9b https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac6c9b 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/cd430a2938fa4ea6b9b05e58ac576587 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6c9b |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
064008 |
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1776197942358573056 |