River discharge in South America: agreement and contradictions between recent alteration and projected changes

ABSTRACT Climate scenarios are important information for water planning, but, in some cases, they disagree with recent climate alterations, which affects their robustness and reliability. Robustness evaluation can help identifying areas that should be prioritized by in water sector adaptation to cli...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Published in:RBRH
Main Authors: Pedro Torres Miranda, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de Paiva, Cléber Henrique de Araújo Gama, João Paulo Lyra Fialho Brêda
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Portuguese
Published: Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos 2023
Subjects:
Climate change impacts
South America
Discharge alteration
Robustness
Technology
T
Hydraulic engineering
TC1-978
River
lake
and water-supply engineering (General)
TC401-506
Geography. Anthropology. Recreation
G
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Northeast Atlantic
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1590/2318-0331.282320220085
https://doaj.org/article/cd26cb1358134b61939d5e03c2b9ce05
Description
Summary:ABSTRACT Climate scenarios are important information for water planning, but, in some cases, they disagree with recent climate alterations, which affects their robustness and reliability. Robustness evaluation can help identifying areas that should be prioritized by in water sector adaptation to climate change. Although crucial, this kind of analysis has been overlooked in most climate change assessments, for instance in South America. This study assesses the robustness and reliability of river discharge scenarios by comparing them with observed and modelled data. Areas where current changes and scenarios agree are more likely to experience changes and, therefore, water planners should pay special attention to them. Tocantins-Araguaia, São Francisco, Western Northeast Atlantic and upper La Plata basins agreed with a discharge decrease, indicating that climate change should be prioritized in planning. Orinoco and upper-western Amazon basins showed strong disagreement between recent and projected discharge alterations, with positive change in last decades, showing that scenarios in these regions should be carefully interpreted. With this, water planners could interpret Northeastern and upper-central South America as presenting more likely scenarios in comparison to Amazon and Orinoco basins.

Similar Items