Predictive tools for severe dengue conforming to World Health Organization 2009 criteria.
Dengue causes 50 million infections per year, posing a large disease and economic burden in tropical and subtropical regions. Only a proportion of dengue cases require hospitalization, and predictive tools to triage dengue patients at greater risk of complications may optimize usage of limited healt...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:cc601156ac67436390d519eaf82dd0e8 2023-05-15T15:11:05+02:00 Predictive tools for severe dengue conforming to World Health Organization 2009 criteria. Luis R Carrasco Yee Sin Leo Alex R Cook Vernon J Lee Tun L Thein Chi Jong Go David C Lye 2014-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002972 https://doaj.org/article/cc601156ac67436390d519eaf82dd0e8 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4091876?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002972 https://doaj.org/article/cc601156ac67436390d519eaf82dd0e8 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 8, Iss 7, p e2972 (2014) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2014 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002972 2022-12-31T13:43:46Z Dengue causes 50 million infections per year, posing a large disease and economic burden in tropical and subtropical regions. Only a proportion of dengue cases require hospitalization, and predictive tools to triage dengue patients at greater risk of complications may optimize usage of limited healthcare resources. For severe dengue (SD), proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) 2009 dengue guidelines, predictive tools are lacking.We undertook a retrospective study of adult dengue patients in Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore, from 2006 to 2008. Demographic, clinical and laboratory variables at presentation from dengue polymerase chain reaction-positive and serology-positive patients were used to predict the development of SD after hospitalization using generalized linear models (GLMs).Predictive tools compatible with well-resourced and resource-limited settings--not requiring laboratory measurements--performed acceptably with optimism-corrected specificities of 29% and 27% respectively for 90% sensitivity. Higher risk of severe dengue (SD) was associated with female gender, lower than normal hematocrit level, abdominal distension, vomiting and fever on admission. Lower risk of SD was associated with more years of age (in a cohort with an interquartile range of 27-47 years of age), leucopenia and fever duration on admission. Among the warning signs proposed by WHO 2009, we found support for abdominal pain or tenderness and vomiting as predictors of combined forms of SD.The application of these predictive tools in the clinical setting may reduce unnecessary admissions by 19% allowing the allocation of scarce public health resources to patients according to the severity of outcomes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 8 7 e2972 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Luis R Carrasco Yee Sin Leo Alex R Cook Vernon J Lee Tun L Thein Chi Jong Go David C Lye Predictive tools for severe dengue conforming to World Health Organization 2009 criteria. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Dengue causes 50 million infections per year, posing a large disease and economic burden in tropical and subtropical regions. Only a proportion of dengue cases require hospitalization, and predictive tools to triage dengue patients at greater risk of complications may optimize usage of limited healthcare resources. For severe dengue (SD), proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) 2009 dengue guidelines, predictive tools are lacking.We undertook a retrospective study of adult dengue patients in Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore, from 2006 to 2008. Demographic, clinical and laboratory variables at presentation from dengue polymerase chain reaction-positive and serology-positive patients were used to predict the development of SD after hospitalization using generalized linear models (GLMs).Predictive tools compatible with well-resourced and resource-limited settings--not requiring laboratory measurements--performed acceptably with optimism-corrected specificities of 29% and 27% respectively for 90% sensitivity. Higher risk of severe dengue (SD) was associated with female gender, lower than normal hematocrit level, abdominal distension, vomiting and fever on admission. Lower risk of SD was associated with more years of age (in a cohort with an interquartile range of 27-47 years of age), leucopenia and fever duration on admission. Among the warning signs proposed by WHO 2009, we found support for abdominal pain or tenderness and vomiting as predictors of combined forms of SD.The application of these predictive tools in the clinical setting may reduce unnecessary admissions by 19% allowing the allocation of scarce public health resources to patients according to the severity of outcomes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Luis R Carrasco Yee Sin Leo Alex R Cook Vernon J Lee Tun L Thein Chi Jong Go David C Lye |
author_facet |
Luis R Carrasco Yee Sin Leo Alex R Cook Vernon J Lee Tun L Thein Chi Jong Go David C Lye |
author_sort |
Luis R Carrasco |
title |
Predictive tools for severe dengue conforming to World Health Organization 2009 criteria. |
title_short |
Predictive tools for severe dengue conforming to World Health Organization 2009 criteria. |
title_full |
Predictive tools for severe dengue conforming to World Health Organization 2009 criteria. |
title_fullStr |
Predictive tools for severe dengue conforming to World Health Organization 2009 criteria. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictive tools for severe dengue conforming to World Health Organization 2009 criteria. |
title_sort |
predictive tools for severe dengue conforming to world health organization 2009 criteria. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002972 https://doaj.org/article/cc601156ac67436390d519eaf82dd0e8 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 8, Iss 7, p e2972 (2014) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4091876?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002972 https://doaj.org/article/cc601156ac67436390d519eaf82dd0e8 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002972 |
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PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
e2972 |
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1766341999984640000 |