The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence and deaths: the Argentina Tobacco Policy Simulation Model El papel de las políticas en la reducción de la prevalencia de tabaquismo y de las muertes asociadas: el modelo de simulación de políticas antitabáquicas de Argentina
OBJECTIVES: To compare tobacco control policies independently and as a package through a simulation model to project smoking prevalence and associated future premature mortality in Argentina beginning in 2001. METHODS: A simulation model of tobacco control policies known as SimSmoke was modified usi...
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Pan American Health Organization
2007
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:cbb2f74406dd444f933622647e8c3acd 2023-05-15T15:18:56+02:00 The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence and deaths: the Argentina Tobacco Policy Simulation Model El papel de las políticas en la reducción de la prevalencia de tabaquismo y de las muertes asociadas: el modelo de simulación de políticas antitabáquicas de Argentina Daniel Ferrante David Levy Armando Peruga Christine Compton Eduardo Romano 2007-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doaj.org/article/cbb2f74406dd444f933622647e8c3acd EN ES PT eng spa por Pan American Health Organization http://www.scielosp.org/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1020-49892007000100005 https://doaj.org/toc/1020-4989 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-5348 1020-4989 1680-5348 https://doaj.org/article/cbb2f74406dd444f933622647e8c3acd Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública, Vol 21, Iss 1, Pp 37-49 (2007) Modelos teóricos simulación por computador política de salud tabaquismo Argentina Computer simulation health policy smoking tobacco Medicine R Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2007 ftdoajarticles 2022-12-31T13:22:31Z OBJECTIVES: To compare tobacco control policies independently and as a package through a simulation model to project smoking prevalence and associated future premature mortality in Argentina beginning in 2001. METHODS: A simulation model of tobacco control policies known as SimSmoke was modified using data for Argentina on population, fertility and mortality, smoking prevalence, and tobacco control policies in effect between 2001 and 2004. We used the Argentina Tobacco Policy Simulation model (ATPSM) to consider the effect on smoking prevalence of changes in taxes and prices, clean air laws, media campaigns, cessation programs, and youth access policies on smoking initiation and cessation rates. Smoking prevalence and relative risks of smoking were used to estimate smoking-attributable mortality. The ATPSM was used to project smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths during the period 2001-2034. RESULTS: The largest reductions in smoking prevalence and premature mortality were predicted for a comprehensive tobacco control policy package, but relative reductions of as much as 30% were also predicted for large tax increases. Adding a media campaign along with programs to publicize and enforce clean air laws, advertising bans, and youth access laws would further reduce smoking rates by up to 45% by the year 2034, and would save almost 16 000 lives per year. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco control policies can substantially reduce smoking rates, which can save many lives. Without such policies, deaths from smoking, and associated medical costs, will increase. The ATPSM is expected to provide guidance in filling the most important information gaps pertinent to both modeling and policy-making in Argentina, e.g., the lack of data on initiation and cessation rates, and the need for studies on the impact of policies. Similar models might be developed for other Latin American countries. OBJETIVOS: Se compararon las políticas de control del tabaco, independientemente y en su conjunto, mediante un modelo de simulación para ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Argentina |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English Spanish Portuguese |
topic |
Modelos teóricos simulación por computador política de salud tabaquismo Argentina Computer simulation health policy smoking tobacco Medicine R Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Modelos teóricos simulación por computador política de salud tabaquismo Argentina Computer simulation health policy smoking tobacco Medicine R Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Daniel Ferrante David Levy Armando Peruga Christine Compton Eduardo Romano The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence and deaths: the Argentina Tobacco Policy Simulation Model El papel de las políticas en la reducción de la prevalencia de tabaquismo y de las muertes asociadas: el modelo de simulación de políticas antitabáquicas de Argentina |
topic_facet |
Modelos teóricos simulación por computador política de salud tabaquismo Argentina Computer simulation health policy smoking tobacco Medicine R Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
OBJECTIVES: To compare tobacco control policies independently and as a package through a simulation model to project smoking prevalence and associated future premature mortality in Argentina beginning in 2001. METHODS: A simulation model of tobacco control policies known as SimSmoke was modified using data for Argentina on population, fertility and mortality, smoking prevalence, and tobacco control policies in effect between 2001 and 2004. We used the Argentina Tobacco Policy Simulation model (ATPSM) to consider the effect on smoking prevalence of changes in taxes and prices, clean air laws, media campaigns, cessation programs, and youth access policies on smoking initiation and cessation rates. Smoking prevalence and relative risks of smoking were used to estimate smoking-attributable mortality. The ATPSM was used to project smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths during the period 2001-2034. RESULTS: The largest reductions in smoking prevalence and premature mortality were predicted for a comprehensive tobacco control policy package, but relative reductions of as much as 30% were also predicted for large tax increases. Adding a media campaign along with programs to publicize and enforce clean air laws, advertising bans, and youth access laws would further reduce smoking rates by up to 45% by the year 2034, and would save almost 16 000 lives per year. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco control policies can substantially reduce smoking rates, which can save many lives. Without such policies, deaths from smoking, and associated medical costs, will increase. The ATPSM is expected to provide guidance in filling the most important information gaps pertinent to both modeling and policy-making in Argentina, e.g., the lack of data on initiation and cessation rates, and the need for studies on the impact of policies. Similar models might be developed for other Latin American countries. OBJETIVOS: Se compararon las políticas de control del tabaco, independientemente y en su conjunto, mediante un modelo de simulación para ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Daniel Ferrante David Levy Armando Peruga Christine Compton Eduardo Romano |
author_facet |
Daniel Ferrante David Levy Armando Peruga Christine Compton Eduardo Romano |
author_sort |
Daniel Ferrante |
title |
The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence and deaths: the Argentina Tobacco Policy Simulation Model El papel de las políticas en la reducción de la prevalencia de tabaquismo y de las muertes asociadas: el modelo de simulación de políticas antitabáquicas de Argentina |
title_short |
The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence and deaths: the Argentina Tobacco Policy Simulation Model El papel de las políticas en la reducción de la prevalencia de tabaquismo y de las muertes asociadas: el modelo de simulación de políticas antitabáquicas de Argentina |
title_full |
The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence and deaths: the Argentina Tobacco Policy Simulation Model El papel de las políticas en la reducción de la prevalencia de tabaquismo y de las muertes asociadas: el modelo de simulación de políticas antitabáquicas de Argentina |
title_fullStr |
The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence and deaths: the Argentina Tobacco Policy Simulation Model El papel de las políticas en la reducción de la prevalencia de tabaquismo y de las muertes asociadas: el modelo de simulación de políticas antitabáquicas de Argentina |
title_full_unstemmed |
The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence and deaths: the Argentina Tobacco Policy Simulation Model El papel de las políticas en la reducción de la prevalencia de tabaquismo y de las muertes asociadas: el modelo de simulación de políticas antitabáquicas de Argentina |
title_sort |
role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence and deaths: the argentina tobacco policy simulation model el papel de las políticas en la reducción de la prevalencia de tabaquismo y de las muertes asociadas: el modelo de simulación de políticas antitabáquicas de argentina |
publisher |
Pan American Health Organization |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
https://doaj.org/article/cbb2f74406dd444f933622647e8c3acd |
geographic |
Arctic Argentina |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Argentina |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública, Vol 21, Iss 1, Pp 37-49 (2007) |
op_relation |
http://www.scielosp.org/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1020-49892007000100005 https://doaj.org/toc/1020-4989 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-5348 1020-4989 1680-5348 https://doaj.org/article/cbb2f74406dd444f933622647e8c3acd |
_version_ |
1766349101101744128 |