Missing North Atlantic cyclonic precipitation in ECMWF numerical weather prediction and ERA-40 data detected through the satellite climatology HOAPS II
Intense precipitation associated with wintertime North Atlantic cyclones occurs not only in connection with frontal zones but also, and often mainly, embedded in strong cold air outbreaks to the west of mature cold fronts. Coherent structures of cloud clusters organized in mesoscale postfrontal low-...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:cb75017b5dc4400e869a6750dedfc736 2024-09-15T18:22:17+00:00 Missing North Atlantic cyclonic precipitation in ECMWF numerical weather prediction and ERA-40 data detected through the satellite climatology HOAPS II Christian-Philipp Klepp Stephan Bakan Hartmut Grassl 2005-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2005/0088 https://doaj.org/article/cb75017b5dc4400e869a6750dedfc736 EN eng Borntraeger http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2005/0088 https://doaj.org/toc/0941-2948 0941-2948 doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2005/0088 https://doaj.org/article/cb75017b5dc4400e869a6750dedfc736 Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol 14, Iss 6, Pp 809-821 (2005) Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2005 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2005/0088 2024-08-05T17:50:04Z Intense precipitation associated with wintertime North Atlantic cyclones occurs not only in connection with frontal zones but also, and often mainly, embedded in strong cold air outbreaks to the west of mature cold fronts. Coherent structures of cloud clusters organized in mesoscale postfrontal low-pressure systems are frequently found in satellite data. Such postfrontal lows (PFL) can develop into severe weather events within few hours and can even reach Europe causing intense convective rainfall and gale force winds. Despite predicting the major storm systems numerical weather prediction (NWP) additionally needs to account for PFLs due to their frequent occurrence connected with high impact weather. But while the major cyclone systems are mostly well predicted, the forecast of PFLs remains poor. Using North Atlantic weather observations from the 1997 Fronts and Atlantic Storm Track Experiment (FASTEX) along with the standard voluntary observing ship (VOS) data led to a high quality validation data set for this usually data sparse region. For individual case studies of FASTEX cyclones with mesoscale PFLs investigations were carried out using the well calibrated precipitation estimates from HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and fluxes from satellite data) compared to the NWP model output of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). Preceding studies showed that the HOAPS precipitation structure and intensities are in good agreement with the VOS observations for all observed precipitation types within the cyclones, including PFLs. To assure that the results found in the 1997 data are still valid in the more recent ECMWF model system, a PFL rainfall comparison is carried out using HOAPS and ERA-40 (ECMWF Re-Analysis) data for the winter of 2001 and 2002. The results indicate that the ECMWF model is mostly well reproducing precipitation structures and intensities associated with frontal systems as observed in the VOS and HOAPS data, whereas PFL precipitation is mostly missing. Further ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Meteorologische Zeitschrift 14 6 809 821 |
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topic |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
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Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Christian-Philipp Klepp Stephan Bakan Hartmut Grassl Missing North Atlantic cyclonic precipitation in ECMWF numerical weather prediction and ERA-40 data detected through the satellite climatology HOAPS II |
topic_facet |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Intense precipitation associated with wintertime North Atlantic cyclones occurs not only in connection with frontal zones but also, and often mainly, embedded in strong cold air outbreaks to the west of mature cold fronts. Coherent structures of cloud clusters organized in mesoscale postfrontal low-pressure systems are frequently found in satellite data. Such postfrontal lows (PFL) can develop into severe weather events within few hours and can even reach Europe causing intense convective rainfall and gale force winds. Despite predicting the major storm systems numerical weather prediction (NWP) additionally needs to account for PFLs due to their frequent occurrence connected with high impact weather. But while the major cyclone systems are mostly well predicted, the forecast of PFLs remains poor. Using North Atlantic weather observations from the 1997 Fronts and Atlantic Storm Track Experiment (FASTEX) along with the standard voluntary observing ship (VOS) data led to a high quality validation data set for this usually data sparse region. For individual case studies of FASTEX cyclones with mesoscale PFLs investigations were carried out using the well calibrated precipitation estimates from HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and fluxes from satellite data) compared to the NWP model output of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). Preceding studies showed that the HOAPS precipitation structure and intensities are in good agreement with the VOS observations for all observed precipitation types within the cyclones, including PFLs. To assure that the results found in the 1997 data are still valid in the more recent ECMWF model system, a PFL rainfall comparison is carried out using HOAPS and ERA-40 (ECMWF Re-Analysis) data for the winter of 2001 and 2002. The results indicate that the ECMWF model is mostly well reproducing precipitation structures and intensities associated with frontal systems as observed in the VOS and HOAPS data, whereas PFL precipitation is mostly missing. Further ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Christian-Philipp Klepp Stephan Bakan Hartmut Grassl |
author_facet |
Christian-Philipp Klepp Stephan Bakan Hartmut Grassl |
author_sort |
Christian-Philipp Klepp |
title |
Missing North Atlantic cyclonic precipitation in ECMWF numerical weather prediction and ERA-40 data detected through the satellite climatology HOAPS II |
title_short |
Missing North Atlantic cyclonic precipitation in ECMWF numerical weather prediction and ERA-40 data detected through the satellite climatology HOAPS II |
title_full |
Missing North Atlantic cyclonic precipitation in ECMWF numerical weather prediction and ERA-40 data detected through the satellite climatology HOAPS II |
title_fullStr |
Missing North Atlantic cyclonic precipitation in ECMWF numerical weather prediction and ERA-40 data detected through the satellite climatology HOAPS II |
title_full_unstemmed |
Missing North Atlantic cyclonic precipitation in ECMWF numerical weather prediction and ERA-40 data detected through the satellite climatology HOAPS II |
title_sort |
missing north atlantic cyclonic precipitation in ecmwf numerical weather prediction and era-40 data detected through the satellite climatology hoaps ii |
publisher |
Borntraeger |
publishDate |
2005 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2005/0088 https://doaj.org/article/cb75017b5dc4400e869a6750dedfc736 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol 14, Iss 6, Pp 809-821 (2005) |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2005/0088 https://doaj.org/toc/0941-2948 0941-2948 doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2005/0088 https://doaj.org/article/cb75017b5dc4400e869a6750dedfc736 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2005/0088 |
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