Geospatial modeling of pre-intervention nodule prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus in Ethiopia as an aid to onchocerciasis elimination.
Background Onchocerciasis is a neglected tropical filarial disease transmitted by the bites of blackflies, causing blindness and severe skin lesions. The change in focus for onchocerciasis management from control to elimination requires thorough mapping of pre-control endemicity to identify areas re...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:cb6c39bb605044adbecc3722180de71e 2023-05-15T15:16:26+02:00 Geospatial modeling of pre-intervention nodule prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus in Ethiopia as an aid to onchocerciasis elimination. Himal Shrestha Karen McCulloch Shannon M Hedtke Warwick N Grant 2022-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010620 https://doaj.org/article/cb6c39bb605044adbecc3722180de71e EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010620 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010620 https://doaj.org/article/cb6c39bb605044adbecc3722180de71e PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 16, Iss 7, p e0010620 (2022) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010620 2022-12-30T22:15:52Z Background Onchocerciasis is a neglected tropical filarial disease transmitted by the bites of blackflies, causing blindness and severe skin lesions. The change in focus for onchocerciasis management from control to elimination requires thorough mapping of pre-control endemicity to identify areas requiring interventions and to monitor progress. Onchocerca volvulus nodule prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa is spatially continuous and heterogeneous, and highly endemic areas may contribute to transmission in areas of low endemicity or vice-versa. Ethiopia is one such onchocerciasis-endemic country with heterogeneous O. volvulus nodule prevalence, and many districts are still unmapped despite their potential for onchocerciasis transmission. Methodology/principle findings A Bayesian geostatistical model was fitted for retrospective pre-intervention nodule prevalence data collected from 916 unique sites and 35,077 people across Ethiopia. We used multiple environmental, socio-demographic, and climate variables to estimate the pre-intervention prevalence of O. volvulus nodules across Ethiopia and to explore their relationship with prevalence. Prevalence was high in southern and northwestern Ethiopia and low in Ethiopia's central and eastern parts. Distance to the nearest river (RR: 0.9850, 95% BCI: 0.9751-0.995), precipitation seasonality (RR: 0.9837, 95% BCI: 0.9681-0.9995), and flow accumulation (RR: 0.9586, 95% BCI: 0.9321-0.9816) were negatively associated with O. volvulus nodule prevalence, while soil moisture (RR: 1.0218, 95% BCI: 1.0135-1.0302) was positively associated. The model estimated the number of pre-intervention cases of O. volvulus nodules in Ethiopia to be around 6.48 million (95% BCI: 3.53-13.04 million). Conclusions/significance Nodule prevalence distribution was correlated with habitat suitability for vector breeding and associated biting behavior. The modeled pre-intervention prevalence can be used as a guide for determining priorities for elimination mapping in regions of Ethiopia that are currently ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 16 7 e0010620 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Himal Shrestha Karen McCulloch Shannon M Hedtke Warwick N Grant Geospatial modeling of pre-intervention nodule prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus in Ethiopia as an aid to onchocerciasis elimination. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Background Onchocerciasis is a neglected tropical filarial disease transmitted by the bites of blackflies, causing blindness and severe skin lesions. The change in focus for onchocerciasis management from control to elimination requires thorough mapping of pre-control endemicity to identify areas requiring interventions and to monitor progress. Onchocerca volvulus nodule prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa is spatially continuous and heterogeneous, and highly endemic areas may contribute to transmission in areas of low endemicity or vice-versa. Ethiopia is one such onchocerciasis-endemic country with heterogeneous O. volvulus nodule prevalence, and many districts are still unmapped despite their potential for onchocerciasis transmission. Methodology/principle findings A Bayesian geostatistical model was fitted for retrospective pre-intervention nodule prevalence data collected from 916 unique sites and 35,077 people across Ethiopia. We used multiple environmental, socio-demographic, and climate variables to estimate the pre-intervention prevalence of O. volvulus nodules across Ethiopia and to explore their relationship with prevalence. Prevalence was high in southern and northwestern Ethiopia and low in Ethiopia's central and eastern parts. Distance to the nearest river (RR: 0.9850, 95% BCI: 0.9751-0.995), precipitation seasonality (RR: 0.9837, 95% BCI: 0.9681-0.9995), and flow accumulation (RR: 0.9586, 95% BCI: 0.9321-0.9816) were negatively associated with O. volvulus nodule prevalence, while soil moisture (RR: 1.0218, 95% BCI: 1.0135-1.0302) was positively associated. The model estimated the number of pre-intervention cases of O. volvulus nodules in Ethiopia to be around 6.48 million (95% BCI: 3.53-13.04 million). Conclusions/significance Nodule prevalence distribution was correlated with habitat suitability for vector breeding and associated biting behavior. The modeled pre-intervention prevalence can be used as a guide for determining priorities for elimination mapping in regions of Ethiopia that are currently ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Himal Shrestha Karen McCulloch Shannon M Hedtke Warwick N Grant |
author_facet |
Himal Shrestha Karen McCulloch Shannon M Hedtke Warwick N Grant |
author_sort |
Himal Shrestha |
title |
Geospatial modeling of pre-intervention nodule prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus in Ethiopia as an aid to onchocerciasis elimination. |
title_short |
Geospatial modeling of pre-intervention nodule prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus in Ethiopia as an aid to onchocerciasis elimination. |
title_full |
Geospatial modeling of pre-intervention nodule prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus in Ethiopia as an aid to onchocerciasis elimination. |
title_fullStr |
Geospatial modeling of pre-intervention nodule prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus in Ethiopia as an aid to onchocerciasis elimination. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Geospatial modeling of pre-intervention nodule prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus in Ethiopia as an aid to onchocerciasis elimination. |
title_sort |
geospatial modeling of pre-intervention nodule prevalence of onchocerca volvulus in ethiopia as an aid to onchocerciasis elimination. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010620 https://doaj.org/article/cb6c39bb605044adbecc3722180de71e |
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Arctic |
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Arctic |
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Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 16, Iss 7, p e0010620 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010620 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010620 https://doaj.org/article/cb6c39bb605044adbecc3722180de71e |
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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010620 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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