Estimating the global demand curve for a leishmaniasis vaccine: A generalisable approach based on global burden of disease estimates.
Background A pressing need exists to develop vaccines for neglected diseases, including leishmaniasis. However, the development of new vaccines is dependent on their value to two key players-vaccine developers and manufacturers who need to have confidence in the global demand in order to commit to r...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:cafe4e543d4a4b16bcd27ef76dee66c8 2023-05-15T15:18:05+02:00 Estimating the global demand curve for a leishmaniasis vaccine: A generalisable approach based on global burden of disease estimates. Sakshi Mohan Paul Revill Stefano Malvolti Melissa Malhame Mark Sculpher Paul M Kaye 2022-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010471 https://doaj.org/article/cafe4e543d4a4b16bcd27ef76dee66c8 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010471 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010471 https://doaj.org/article/cafe4e543d4a4b16bcd27ef76dee66c8 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 16, Iss 6, p e0010471 (2022) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010471 2022-12-30T22:22:01Z Background A pressing need exists to develop vaccines for neglected diseases, including leishmaniasis. However, the development of new vaccines is dependent on their value to two key players-vaccine developers and manufacturers who need to have confidence in the global demand in order to commit to research and production; and governments (or other international funders) who need to signal demand based on the potential public health benefits of the vaccine in their local context, as well as its affordability. A detailed global epidemiological analysis is rarely available before a vaccine enters a market due to lack of resources as well as insufficient global data necessary for such an analysis. Our study seeks to bridge this information gap by providing a generalisable approach to estimating the commercial and public health value of a vaccine in development relying primarily on publicly available Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data. This simplified approach is easily replicable and can be used to guide discussions and investments into vaccines and other health technologies where evidence constraints exist. The approach is demonstrated through the estimation of the demand curve for a future leishmaniasis vaccine. Methodology/principal findings We project the ability to pay over the period 2030-2040 for a vaccine preventing cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis (CL / VL), using an illustrative set of countries which account for most of the global disease burden. First, based on previous work on vaccine demand projections in these countries and CL / VL GBD-reported incidence rates, we project the potential long-term impact of the vaccine on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted as a result of reduced incidence. Then, we apply an economic framework to our estimates to determine vaccine affordability based on the abilities to pay of governments and global funders, leading to estimates of the demand and market size. Based on our estimates, the maximum ability-to-pay of a leishmaniasis vaccine (per course, ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 16 6 e0010471 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Sakshi Mohan Paul Revill Stefano Malvolti Melissa Malhame Mark Sculpher Paul M Kaye Estimating the global demand curve for a leishmaniasis vaccine: A generalisable approach based on global burden of disease estimates. |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Background A pressing need exists to develop vaccines for neglected diseases, including leishmaniasis. However, the development of new vaccines is dependent on their value to two key players-vaccine developers and manufacturers who need to have confidence in the global demand in order to commit to research and production; and governments (or other international funders) who need to signal demand based on the potential public health benefits of the vaccine in their local context, as well as its affordability. A detailed global epidemiological analysis is rarely available before a vaccine enters a market due to lack of resources as well as insufficient global data necessary for such an analysis. Our study seeks to bridge this information gap by providing a generalisable approach to estimating the commercial and public health value of a vaccine in development relying primarily on publicly available Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data. This simplified approach is easily replicable and can be used to guide discussions and investments into vaccines and other health technologies where evidence constraints exist. The approach is demonstrated through the estimation of the demand curve for a future leishmaniasis vaccine. Methodology/principal findings We project the ability to pay over the period 2030-2040 for a vaccine preventing cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis (CL / VL), using an illustrative set of countries which account for most of the global disease burden. First, based on previous work on vaccine demand projections in these countries and CL / VL GBD-reported incidence rates, we project the potential long-term impact of the vaccine on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted as a result of reduced incidence. Then, we apply an economic framework to our estimates to determine vaccine affordability based on the abilities to pay of governments and global funders, leading to estimates of the demand and market size. Based on our estimates, the maximum ability-to-pay of a leishmaniasis vaccine (per course, ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sakshi Mohan Paul Revill Stefano Malvolti Melissa Malhame Mark Sculpher Paul M Kaye |
author_facet |
Sakshi Mohan Paul Revill Stefano Malvolti Melissa Malhame Mark Sculpher Paul M Kaye |
author_sort |
Sakshi Mohan |
title |
Estimating the global demand curve for a leishmaniasis vaccine: A generalisable approach based on global burden of disease estimates. |
title_short |
Estimating the global demand curve for a leishmaniasis vaccine: A generalisable approach based on global burden of disease estimates. |
title_full |
Estimating the global demand curve for a leishmaniasis vaccine: A generalisable approach based on global burden of disease estimates. |
title_fullStr |
Estimating the global demand curve for a leishmaniasis vaccine: A generalisable approach based on global burden of disease estimates. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating the global demand curve for a leishmaniasis vaccine: A generalisable approach based on global burden of disease estimates. |
title_sort |
estimating the global demand curve for a leishmaniasis vaccine: a generalisable approach based on global burden of disease estimates. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010471 https://doaj.org/article/cafe4e543d4a4b16bcd27ef76dee66c8 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 16, Iss 6, p e0010471 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010471 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010471 https://doaj.org/article/cafe4e543d4a4b16bcd27ef76dee66c8 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010471 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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16 |
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6 |
container_start_page |
e0010471 |
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1766348312301010944 |