Temporal Changes of Near‐Surface Air Temperature in Poland for 1781–2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881–2016
Abstract Analyses of near‐surface air temperature T in Poland for 1781–2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881–2016 have been carried out. We show that the centenary warming effect in Poland and in Tbilisi has almost the same peculiarities. An average centenary warming effect ΔT = (1.08 ± 0.29)°C is...
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:ca8d2791e5574bf68b4930ea346e2aca 2023-05-15T17:35:14+02:00 Temporal Changes of Near‐Surface Air Temperature in Poland for 1781–2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881–2016 R. Modzelewska M. V. Alania N. I. Kapanadze E. I. Khelaia 2020-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001174 https://doaj.org/article/ca8d2791e5574bf68b4930ea346e2aca EN eng American Geophysical Union (AGU) https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001174 https://doaj.org/toc/2333-5084 2333-5084 doi:10.1029/2020EA001174 https://doaj.org/article/ca8d2791e5574bf68b4930ea346e2aca Earth and Space Science, Vol 7, Iss 10, Pp n/a-n/a (2020) near‐surface air temperature changes centenary changes of Earth temperatures global warming effect solar activity Astronomy QB1-991 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001174 2022-12-30T23:18:57Z Abstract Analyses of near‐surface air temperature T in Poland for 1781–2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881–2016 have been carried out. We show that the centenary warming effect in Poland and in Tbilisi has almost the same peculiarities. An average centenary warming effect ΔT = (1.08 ± 0.29)°C is observed in Poland and in Tbilisi for 1881–2016. A warming effect is larger in winter season (ΔT = ~1.15°C) than in other seasons (average warming effect for these seasons ΔT = ~0.95°C). We show that a centenary warming is mainly related to the change of solar activity (estimated by sunspot number [SSN] and total solar irradiance [TSI]), particularly, a time interval about ~70 years (1890–1960), when correlation coefficients between 11‐year smoothed SSN and T, and TSI and T are high, r = 0.66 ± 0.07 and r = 0.73 ± 0.07 for Poland and r = 0.82 ± 0.05 and r = 0.90 ± 0.05 for Tbilisi, respectively; in this period solar activity contributes decisively in the global warming. We show that a global warming effect equals zero based on the temperature T data in Poland for period 1781–1880, when human activities were relatively less than in 1881–2016. We recognize a few feeble ~20 ± 3 years of disturbances in the temperature changes for period 1885–1980, most likely related with the fluctuations of solar magnetic cycles. We distinguish the fluctuations of ~7–8 years in Poland's T data, possibly connected with local effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Tbilisi ENVELOPE(80.581,80.581,72.391,72.391) Earth and Space Science 7 10 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
near‐surface air temperature changes centenary changes of Earth temperatures global warming effect solar activity Astronomy QB1-991 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
near‐surface air temperature changes centenary changes of Earth temperatures global warming effect solar activity Astronomy QB1-991 Geology QE1-996.5 R. Modzelewska M. V. Alania N. I. Kapanadze E. I. Khelaia Temporal Changes of Near‐Surface Air Temperature in Poland for 1781–2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881–2016 |
topic_facet |
near‐surface air temperature changes centenary changes of Earth temperatures global warming effect solar activity Astronomy QB1-991 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Abstract Analyses of near‐surface air temperature T in Poland for 1781–2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881–2016 have been carried out. We show that the centenary warming effect in Poland and in Tbilisi has almost the same peculiarities. An average centenary warming effect ΔT = (1.08 ± 0.29)°C is observed in Poland and in Tbilisi for 1881–2016. A warming effect is larger in winter season (ΔT = ~1.15°C) than in other seasons (average warming effect for these seasons ΔT = ~0.95°C). We show that a centenary warming is mainly related to the change of solar activity (estimated by sunspot number [SSN] and total solar irradiance [TSI]), particularly, a time interval about ~70 years (1890–1960), when correlation coefficients between 11‐year smoothed SSN and T, and TSI and T are high, r = 0.66 ± 0.07 and r = 0.73 ± 0.07 for Poland and r = 0.82 ± 0.05 and r = 0.90 ± 0.05 for Tbilisi, respectively; in this period solar activity contributes decisively in the global warming. We show that a global warming effect equals zero based on the temperature T data in Poland for period 1781–1880, when human activities were relatively less than in 1881–2016. We recognize a few feeble ~20 ± 3 years of disturbances in the temperature changes for period 1885–1980, most likely related with the fluctuations of solar magnetic cycles. We distinguish the fluctuations of ~7–8 years in Poland's T data, possibly connected with local effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
R. Modzelewska M. V. Alania N. I. Kapanadze E. I. Khelaia |
author_facet |
R. Modzelewska M. V. Alania N. I. Kapanadze E. I. Khelaia |
author_sort |
R. Modzelewska |
title |
Temporal Changes of Near‐Surface Air Temperature in Poland for 1781–2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881–2016 |
title_short |
Temporal Changes of Near‐Surface Air Temperature in Poland for 1781–2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881–2016 |
title_full |
Temporal Changes of Near‐Surface Air Temperature in Poland for 1781–2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881–2016 |
title_fullStr |
Temporal Changes of Near‐Surface Air Temperature in Poland for 1781–2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881–2016 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Temporal Changes of Near‐Surface Air Temperature in Poland for 1781–2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881–2016 |
title_sort |
temporal changes of near‐surface air temperature in poland for 1781–2016 and in tbilisi (georgia) for 1881–2016 |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001174 https://doaj.org/article/ca8d2791e5574bf68b4930ea346e2aca |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(80.581,80.581,72.391,72.391) |
geographic |
Tbilisi |
geographic_facet |
Tbilisi |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Earth and Space Science, Vol 7, Iss 10, Pp n/a-n/a (2020) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001174 https://doaj.org/toc/2333-5084 2333-5084 doi:10.1029/2020EA001174 https://doaj.org/article/ca8d2791e5574bf68b4930ea346e2aca |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001174 |
container_title |
Earth and Space Science |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
10 |
_version_ |
1766134317176586240 |