Timing and seasonality of the United States ‘warming hole’
The United States ‘warming hole’ is a region in the southeast/central U.S. where observed long-term surface temperature trends are insignificant or negative. We investigate the roles of anthropogenic forcing and internal variability on these trends by systematically examining observed seasonal tempe...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:ca1cde65932e4429ac2bf2dfe3596da2 2023-09-05T13:21:36+02:00 Timing and seasonality of the United States ‘warming hole’ Nora R Mascioli Michael Previdi Arlene M Fiore Mingfang Ting 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ef4 https://doaj.org/article/ca1cde65932e4429ac2bf2dfe3596da2 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ef4 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ef4 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/ca1cde65932e4429ac2bf2dfe3596da2 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 12, Iss 3, p 034008 (2017) warming hole atmospheric aerosols United States climate climate change regional temperature trends Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ef4 2023-08-13T00:37:40Z The United States ‘warming hole’ is a region in the southeast/central U.S. where observed long-term surface temperature trends are insignificant or negative. We investigate the roles of anthropogenic forcing and internal variability on these trends by systematically examining observed seasonal temperature trends over all time periods of at least 10 years during 1901–2015. Long-term summer cooling in the north central U.S. beginning in the 1930s reflects the recovery from the anomalously warm ‘Dust Bowl’ of that decade. In the northeast and southern U.S., significant summertime cooling occurs from the early 1950s to the mid 1970s, which we partially attribute to increasing anthropogenic aerosol emissions (median fraction of the observed temperature trends explained is 0.69 and 0.17, respectively). In winter, the northeast and southern U.S. cool significantly from the early 1950s to the early 1990s, but we do not find evidence for a significant aerosol influence. Instead, long-term phase changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation contribute significantly to this cooling in both regions, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation also contributes significantly to southern U.S. cooling. Rather than stemming from a single cause, the U.S. warming hole reflects both anthropogenic aerosol forcing and internal climate variability, but the dominant drivers vary by season, region, and time period. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Pacific Environmental Research Letters 12 3 034008 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
warming hole atmospheric aerosols United States climate climate change regional temperature trends Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
warming hole atmospheric aerosols United States climate climate change regional temperature trends Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Nora R Mascioli Michael Previdi Arlene M Fiore Mingfang Ting Timing and seasonality of the United States ‘warming hole’ |
topic_facet |
warming hole atmospheric aerosols United States climate climate change regional temperature trends Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
The United States ‘warming hole’ is a region in the southeast/central U.S. where observed long-term surface temperature trends are insignificant or negative. We investigate the roles of anthropogenic forcing and internal variability on these trends by systematically examining observed seasonal temperature trends over all time periods of at least 10 years during 1901–2015. Long-term summer cooling in the north central U.S. beginning in the 1930s reflects the recovery from the anomalously warm ‘Dust Bowl’ of that decade. In the northeast and southern U.S., significant summertime cooling occurs from the early 1950s to the mid 1970s, which we partially attribute to increasing anthropogenic aerosol emissions (median fraction of the observed temperature trends explained is 0.69 and 0.17, respectively). In winter, the northeast and southern U.S. cool significantly from the early 1950s to the early 1990s, but we do not find evidence for a significant aerosol influence. Instead, long-term phase changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation contribute significantly to this cooling in both regions, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation also contributes significantly to southern U.S. cooling. Rather than stemming from a single cause, the U.S. warming hole reflects both anthropogenic aerosol forcing and internal climate variability, but the dominant drivers vary by season, region, and time period. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nora R Mascioli Michael Previdi Arlene M Fiore Mingfang Ting |
author_facet |
Nora R Mascioli Michael Previdi Arlene M Fiore Mingfang Ting |
author_sort |
Nora R Mascioli |
title |
Timing and seasonality of the United States ‘warming hole’ |
title_short |
Timing and seasonality of the United States ‘warming hole’ |
title_full |
Timing and seasonality of the United States ‘warming hole’ |
title_fullStr |
Timing and seasonality of the United States ‘warming hole’ |
title_full_unstemmed |
Timing and seasonality of the United States ‘warming hole’ |
title_sort |
timing and seasonality of the united states ‘warming hole’ |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ef4 https://doaj.org/article/ca1cde65932e4429ac2bf2dfe3596da2 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 12, Iss 3, p 034008 (2017) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ef4 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ef4 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/ca1cde65932e4429ac2bf2dfe3596da2 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ef4 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
034008 |
_version_ |
1776202198495002624 |