Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia I. Patterns of lagged weather effects reflect biological mechanisms
Abstract Background Malaria epidemics due to Plasmodium falciparum are reported frequently in the East African highlands with high case fatality rates. There have been formal attempts to predict epidemics by the use of climatic variables that are predictors of transmission potential. However, little...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c9526c2824f943848c695f240c779ad8 2023-05-15T15:12:12+02:00 Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia I. Patterns of lagged weather effects reflect biological mechanisms Teklehaimanot Hailay D Lipsitch Marc Teklehaimanot Awash Schwartz Joel 2004-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-3-41 https://doaj.org/article/c9526c2824f943848c695f240c779ad8 EN eng BMC http://www.malariajournal.com/content/3/1/41 https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/1475-2875-3-41 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/c9526c2824f943848c695f240c779ad8 Malaria Journal, Vol 3, Iss 1, p 41 (2004) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 article 2004 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-3-41 2022-12-31T04:39:40Z Abstract Background Malaria epidemics due to Plasmodium falciparum are reported frequently in the East African highlands with high case fatality rates. There have been formal attempts to predict epidemics by the use of climatic variables that are predictors of transmission potential. However, little consensus has emerged about the relative importance and predictive value of different factors. Understanding the reasons for variation is crucial to determining specific and important indicators for epidemic prediction. The impact of temperature on the duration of a mosquito's life cycle and the sporogonic phase of the parasite could explain the inconsistent findings. Methods Daily average number of cases was modeled using a robust Poisson regression with rainfall, minimum temperature and maximum temperatures as explanatory variables in a polynomial distributed lag model in 10 districts of Ethiopia. To improve reliability and generalizability within similar climatic conditions, we grouped the districts into two climatic zones, hot and cold. Results In cold districts, rainfall was associated with a delayed increase in malaria cases, while the association in the hot districts occurred at relatively shorter lags. In cold districts, minimum temperature was associated with malaria cases with a delayed effect. In hot districts, the effect of minimum temperature was non-significant at most lags, and much of its contribution was relatively immediate. Conclusions The interaction between climatic factors and their biological influence on mosquito and parasite life cycle is a key factor in the association between weather and malaria. These factors should be considered in the development of malaria early warning system. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Malaria Journal 3 1 41 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Teklehaimanot Hailay D Lipsitch Marc Teklehaimanot Awash Schwartz Joel Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia I. Patterns of lagged weather effects reflect biological mechanisms |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
description |
Abstract Background Malaria epidemics due to Plasmodium falciparum are reported frequently in the East African highlands with high case fatality rates. There have been formal attempts to predict epidemics by the use of climatic variables that are predictors of transmission potential. However, little consensus has emerged about the relative importance and predictive value of different factors. Understanding the reasons for variation is crucial to determining specific and important indicators for epidemic prediction. The impact of temperature on the duration of a mosquito's life cycle and the sporogonic phase of the parasite could explain the inconsistent findings. Methods Daily average number of cases was modeled using a robust Poisson regression with rainfall, minimum temperature and maximum temperatures as explanatory variables in a polynomial distributed lag model in 10 districts of Ethiopia. To improve reliability and generalizability within similar climatic conditions, we grouped the districts into two climatic zones, hot and cold. Results In cold districts, rainfall was associated with a delayed increase in malaria cases, while the association in the hot districts occurred at relatively shorter lags. In cold districts, minimum temperature was associated with malaria cases with a delayed effect. In hot districts, the effect of minimum temperature was non-significant at most lags, and much of its contribution was relatively immediate. Conclusions The interaction between climatic factors and their biological influence on mosquito and parasite life cycle is a key factor in the association between weather and malaria. These factors should be considered in the development of malaria early warning system. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Teklehaimanot Hailay D Lipsitch Marc Teklehaimanot Awash Schwartz Joel |
author_facet |
Teklehaimanot Hailay D Lipsitch Marc Teklehaimanot Awash Schwartz Joel |
author_sort |
Teklehaimanot Hailay D |
title |
Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia I. Patterns of lagged weather effects reflect biological mechanisms |
title_short |
Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia I. Patterns of lagged weather effects reflect biological mechanisms |
title_full |
Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia I. Patterns of lagged weather effects reflect biological mechanisms |
title_fullStr |
Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia I. Patterns of lagged weather effects reflect biological mechanisms |
title_full_unstemmed |
Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia I. Patterns of lagged weather effects reflect biological mechanisms |
title_sort |
weather-based prediction of plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of ethiopia i. patterns of lagged weather effects reflect biological mechanisms |
publisher |
BMC |
publishDate |
2004 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-3-41 https://doaj.org/article/c9526c2824f943848c695f240c779ad8 |
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Arctic |
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Arctic |
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Arctic |
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Arctic |
op_source |
Malaria Journal, Vol 3, Iss 1, p 41 (2004) |
op_relation |
http://www.malariajournal.com/content/3/1/41 https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/1475-2875-3-41 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/c9526c2824f943848c695f240c779ad8 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-3-41 |
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Malaria Journal |
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3 |
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41 |
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1766342918909460480 |