Extinction probabilities as a function of temperature for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp.).
Significant reductions in populations of tsetse (Glossina spp) in parts of Zimbabwe have been attributed to increases in temperature over recent decades. Sustained increases in temperature might lead to local extinctions of tsetse populations. Extinction probabilities for tsetse populations have not...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c89d292c015f4cbf9d18ba5719a3fcdf 2023-05-15T15:12:30+02:00 Extinction probabilities as a function of temperature for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp.). Elisha B Are John W Hargrove 2020-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007769 https://doaj.org/article/c89d292c015f4cbf9d18ba5719a3fcdf EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007769 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007769 https://doaj.org/article/c89d292c015f4cbf9d18ba5719a3fcdf PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 14, Iss 5, p e0007769 (2020) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007769 2022-12-31T12:49:08Z Significant reductions in populations of tsetse (Glossina spp) in parts of Zimbabwe have been attributed to increases in temperature over recent decades. Sustained increases in temperature might lead to local extinctions of tsetse populations. Extinction probabilities for tsetse populations have not so far been estimated as a function of temperature. We develop a time-homogeneous branching process model for situations where tsetse live at different levels of fixed temperature. We derive a probability distribution pk(T) for the number of female offspring an adult female tsetse is expected to produce in her lifetime, as a function of the fixed temperature at which she is living. We show that pk(T) can be expressed as a geometric series: its generating function is therefore a fractional linear type. We obtain expressions for the extinction probability, reproduction number, time to extinction and growth rates. The results are valid for all tsetse, but detailed effects of temperature will vary between species. No G. m. morsitans population can escape extinction if subjected, for extended periods, to temperatures outside the range 16°C-32°C. Extinction probability increases more rapidly as temperatures approach and exceed the upper and lower limits. If the number of females is large enough, the population can still survive even at high temperatures (28°C-31°C). Small decreases or increases in constant temperature in the neighbourhoods of 16°C and 31°C, respectively, can drive tsetse populations to extinction. Further study is needed to estimate extinction probabilities for tsetse populations in field situations where temperatures vary continuously. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 14 5 e0007769 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Elisha B Are John W Hargrove Extinction probabilities as a function of temperature for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp.). |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Significant reductions in populations of tsetse (Glossina spp) in parts of Zimbabwe have been attributed to increases in temperature over recent decades. Sustained increases in temperature might lead to local extinctions of tsetse populations. Extinction probabilities for tsetse populations have not so far been estimated as a function of temperature. We develop a time-homogeneous branching process model for situations where tsetse live at different levels of fixed temperature. We derive a probability distribution pk(T) for the number of female offspring an adult female tsetse is expected to produce in her lifetime, as a function of the fixed temperature at which she is living. We show that pk(T) can be expressed as a geometric series: its generating function is therefore a fractional linear type. We obtain expressions for the extinction probability, reproduction number, time to extinction and growth rates. The results are valid for all tsetse, but detailed effects of temperature will vary between species. No G. m. morsitans population can escape extinction if subjected, for extended periods, to temperatures outside the range 16°C-32°C. Extinction probability increases more rapidly as temperatures approach and exceed the upper and lower limits. If the number of females is large enough, the population can still survive even at high temperatures (28°C-31°C). Small decreases or increases in constant temperature in the neighbourhoods of 16°C and 31°C, respectively, can drive tsetse populations to extinction. Further study is needed to estimate extinction probabilities for tsetse populations in field situations where temperatures vary continuously. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Elisha B Are John W Hargrove |
author_facet |
Elisha B Are John W Hargrove |
author_sort |
Elisha B Are |
title |
Extinction probabilities as a function of temperature for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp.). |
title_short |
Extinction probabilities as a function of temperature for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp.). |
title_full |
Extinction probabilities as a function of temperature for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp.). |
title_fullStr |
Extinction probabilities as a function of temperature for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp.). |
title_full_unstemmed |
Extinction probabilities as a function of temperature for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp.). |
title_sort |
extinction probabilities as a function of temperature for populations of tsetse (glossina spp.). |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007769 https://doaj.org/article/c89d292c015f4cbf9d18ba5719a3fcdf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 14, Iss 5, p e0007769 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007769 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007769 https://doaj.org/article/c89d292c015f4cbf9d18ba5719a3fcdf |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007769 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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14 |
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5 |
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e0007769 |
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