Inferring time-dependent calving dynamics at Helheim Glacier

We perform Bayesian inference of the parameters of a time-dependent model of ice flow and calving at Helheim Glacier, East Greenland. We find that, while a time-independent calving parameterization can recover the mean observed terminus position, such a model is unable to recover sub-annual variabil...

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Published in:Journal of Glaciology
Main Authors: Jacob Downs, Douglas Brinkerhoff, Mathieu Morlighem
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Cambridge University Press 2023
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2022.68
https://doaj.org/article/c86fcc0625a7467793c64389e9167ea4
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spelling ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c86fcc0625a7467793c64389e9167ea4 2023-05-15T16:03:44+02:00 Inferring time-dependent calving dynamics at Helheim Glacier Jacob Downs Douglas Brinkerhoff Mathieu Morlighem 2023-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2022.68 https://doaj.org/article/c86fcc0625a7467793c64389e9167ea4 EN eng Cambridge University Press https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143022000685/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0022-1430 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5652 doi:10.1017/jog.2022.68 0022-1430 1727-5652 https://doaj.org/article/c86fcc0625a7467793c64389e9167ea4 Journal of Glaciology, Vol 69, Pp 381-396 (2023) Glacier calving glacier flow glacier modeling Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2022.68 2023-03-19T01:31:51Z We perform Bayesian inference of the parameters of a time-dependent model of ice flow and calving at Helheim Glacier, East Greenland. We find that, while a time-independent calving parameterization can recover the mean observed terminus position, such a model is unable to recover sub-annual variability, even when forced with seasonally varying climate. To address this, we develop a simple stochastic model relating surface runoff rates and calving threshold. Again inferring model parameters from observations, we find that this parameterization is able to reproduce observations with respect to both mean position and characteristic temporal variability. This result demonstrates the importance of considering potential sub-annual controls on calving rates in numerical models, which may include variable undercutting rates or surface runoff-dependent surface crevasse propagation. Article in Journal/Newspaper East Greenland glacier Greenland Journal of Glaciology Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Greenland Journal of Glaciology 69 274 381 396
institution Open Polar
collection Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles
op_collection_id ftdoajarticles
language English
topic Glacier calving
glacier flow
glacier modeling
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Meteorology. Climatology
QC851-999
spellingShingle Glacier calving
glacier flow
glacier modeling
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Meteorology. Climatology
QC851-999
Jacob Downs
Douglas Brinkerhoff
Mathieu Morlighem
Inferring time-dependent calving dynamics at Helheim Glacier
topic_facet Glacier calving
glacier flow
glacier modeling
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Meteorology. Climatology
QC851-999
description We perform Bayesian inference of the parameters of a time-dependent model of ice flow and calving at Helheim Glacier, East Greenland. We find that, while a time-independent calving parameterization can recover the mean observed terminus position, such a model is unable to recover sub-annual variability, even when forced with seasonally varying climate. To address this, we develop a simple stochastic model relating surface runoff rates and calving threshold. Again inferring model parameters from observations, we find that this parameterization is able to reproduce observations with respect to both mean position and characteristic temporal variability. This result demonstrates the importance of considering potential sub-annual controls on calving rates in numerical models, which may include variable undercutting rates or surface runoff-dependent surface crevasse propagation.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Jacob Downs
Douglas Brinkerhoff
Mathieu Morlighem
author_facet Jacob Downs
Douglas Brinkerhoff
Mathieu Morlighem
author_sort Jacob Downs
title Inferring time-dependent calving dynamics at Helheim Glacier
title_short Inferring time-dependent calving dynamics at Helheim Glacier
title_full Inferring time-dependent calving dynamics at Helheim Glacier
title_fullStr Inferring time-dependent calving dynamics at Helheim Glacier
title_full_unstemmed Inferring time-dependent calving dynamics at Helheim Glacier
title_sort inferring time-dependent calving dynamics at helheim glacier
publisher Cambridge University Press
publishDate 2023
url https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2022.68
https://doaj.org/article/c86fcc0625a7467793c64389e9167ea4
geographic Greenland
geographic_facet Greenland
genre East Greenland
glacier
Greenland
Journal of Glaciology
genre_facet East Greenland
glacier
Greenland
Journal of Glaciology
op_source Journal of Glaciology, Vol 69, Pp 381-396 (2023)
op_relation https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143022000685/type/journal_article
https://doaj.org/toc/0022-1430
https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5652
doi:10.1017/jog.2022.68
0022-1430
1727-5652
https://doaj.org/article/c86fcc0625a7467793c64389e9167ea4
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2022.68
container_title Journal of Glaciology
container_volume 69
container_issue 274
container_start_page 381
op_container_end_page 396
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