Assessing the impact of parametric uncertainty on tipping points of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
Various elements of the Earth system have the potential to undergo critical transitions to a radically different state, under sustained changes to climate forcing. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is of particular importance for North Atlantic heat transport and is thought to b...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c856a1032146414fac111c6d1de27036 2023-09-05T13:21:38+02:00 Assessing the impact of parametric uncertainty on tipping points of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Kerstin Lux Peter Ashwin Richard Wood Christian Kuehn 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7602 https://doaj.org/article/c856a1032146414fac111c6d1de27036 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7602 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac7602 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/c856a1032146414fac111c6d1de27036 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 17, Iss 7, p 075002 (2022) parametric uncertainty probabilistic bifurcation curves parameter estimation Bayesian inference AMOC box model tipping point Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7602 2023-08-13T00:37:02Z Various elements of the Earth system have the potential to undergo critical transitions to a radically different state, under sustained changes to climate forcing. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is of particular importance for North Atlantic heat transport and is thought to be potentially at risk of passing such a tipping point (TP). In climate models, the location and likelihood of such TPs depends on model parameters that may be poorly known. Reducing this parametric uncertainty is important to understand the likelihood of tipping behaviour. In this letter, we develop estimates for parametric uncertainty in a simple model of AMOC tipping, using a Bayesian inversion technique. When applied using synthetic (‘perfect model’) salinity timeseries data, the technique drastically reduces the uncertainty in model parameters, compared to prior estimates derived from previous literature, resulting in tighter constraints on the AMOC TPs. To visualise the impact of parametric uncertainty on TPs, we extend classical tipping diagrams by showing probabilistic bifurcation curves according to the inferred distribution of the model parameter, allowing the uncertain locations of TPs along the probabilistic bifurcation curves to be highlighted. Our results show that suitable palaeo-proxy timeseries may contain enough information to assess the likely position of AMOC (and potentially other Earth system) TPs, even in cases where no tipping occurred during the period of the proxy data. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 17 7 075002 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
parametric uncertainty probabilistic bifurcation curves parameter estimation Bayesian inference AMOC box model tipping point Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
parametric uncertainty probabilistic bifurcation curves parameter estimation Bayesian inference AMOC box model tipping point Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Kerstin Lux Peter Ashwin Richard Wood Christian Kuehn Assessing the impact of parametric uncertainty on tipping points of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation |
topic_facet |
parametric uncertainty probabilistic bifurcation curves parameter estimation Bayesian inference AMOC box model tipping point Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Various elements of the Earth system have the potential to undergo critical transitions to a radically different state, under sustained changes to climate forcing. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is of particular importance for North Atlantic heat transport and is thought to be potentially at risk of passing such a tipping point (TP). In climate models, the location and likelihood of such TPs depends on model parameters that may be poorly known. Reducing this parametric uncertainty is important to understand the likelihood of tipping behaviour. In this letter, we develop estimates for parametric uncertainty in a simple model of AMOC tipping, using a Bayesian inversion technique. When applied using synthetic (‘perfect model’) salinity timeseries data, the technique drastically reduces the uncertainty in model parameters, compared to prior estimates derived from previous literature, resulting in tighter constraints on the AMOC TPs. To visualise the impact of parametric uncertainty on TPs, we extend classical tipping diagrams by showing probabilistic bifurcation curves according to the inferred distribution of the model parameter, allowing the uncertain locations of TPs along the probabilistic bifurcation curves to be highlighted. Our results show that suitable palaeo-proxy timeseries may contain enough information to assess the likely position of AMOC (and potentially other Earth system) TPs, even in cases where no tipping occurred during the period of the proxy data. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kerstin Lux Peter Ashwin Richard Wood Christian Kuehn |
author_facet |
Kerstin Lux Peter Ashwin Richard Wood Christian Kuehn |
author_sort |
Kerstin Lux |
title |
Assessing the impact of parametric uncertainty on tipping points of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation |
title_short |
Assessing the impact of parametric uncertainty on tipping points of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation |
title_full |
Assessing the impact of parametric uncertainty on tipping points of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation |
title_fullStr |
Assessing the impact of parametric uncertainty on tipping points of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing the impact of parametric uncertainty on tipping points of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation |
title_sort |
assessing the impact of parametric uncertainty on tipping points of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7602 https://doaj.org/article/c856a1032146414fac111c6d1de27036 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 17, Iss 7, p 075002 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7602 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac7602 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/c856a1032146414fac111c6d1de27036 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7602 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
075002 |
_version_ |
1776202229248688128 |