Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100
The response of ice streams in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) to future climate forcing is highly uncertain. Here we present projections of 21st century response of ASE ice streams to modelled local ocean temperature change using a subset of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulation...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c7f058c1137647f6ab306b4fbb14d8a3 2023-05-15T13:23:54+02:00 Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 A. V. Alevropoulos-Borrill I. J. Nias A. J. Payne N. R. Golledge R. J. Bingham 2020-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020 https://doaj.org/article/c7f058c1137647f6ab306b4fbb14d8a3 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.the-cryosphere.net/14/1245/2020/tc-14-1245-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/c7f058c1137647f6ab306b4fbb14d8a3 The Cryosphere, Vol 14, Pp 1245-1258 (2020) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020 2022-12-31T14:19:11Z The response of ice streams in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) to future climate forcing is highly uncertain. Here we present projections of 21st century response of ASE ice streams to modelled local ocean temperature change using a subset of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations. We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) ice sheet model, with high-resolution grounding line resolving capabilities, to explore grounding line migration in response to projected sub-ice-shelf basal melting. We find a contribution to sea level rise of between 2.0 and 4.5 cm by 2100 under RCP8.5 conditions from the CMIP5 subset, where the mass loss response is linearly related to the mean ocean temperature anomaly. To account for uncertainty associated with model initialization, we perform three further sets of CMIP5-forced experiments using different parameterizations that explore perturbations to the prescription of initial basal melt, the basal traction coefficient and the ice stiffening factor. We find that the response of the ASE to ocean temperature forcing is highly dependent on the parameter fields obtained in the initialization procedure, where the sensitivity of the ASE ice streams to the sub-ice-shelf melt forcing is dependent on the choice of parameter set. Accounting for ice sheet model parameter uncertainty results in a projected range in sea level equivalent contribution from the ASE of between −0.02 and 12.1 cm by the end of the 21st century. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf The Cryosphere West Antarctica Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles West Antarctica Amundsen Sea The Cryosphere 14 4 1245 1258 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 A. V. Alevropoulos-Borrill I. J. Nias A. J. Payne N. R. Golledge R. J. Bingham Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
The response of ice streams in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) to future climate forcing is highly uncertain. Here we present projections of 21st century response of ASE ice streams to modelled local ocean temperature change using a subset of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations. We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) ice sheet model, with high-resolution grounding line resolving capabilities, to explore grounding line migration in response to projected sub-ice-shelf basal melting. We find a contribution to sea level rise of between 2.0 and 4.5 cm by 2100 under RCP8.5 conditions from the CMIP5 subset, where the mass loss response is linearly related to the mean ocean temperature anomaly. To account for uncertainty associated with model initialization, we perform three further sets of CMIP5-forced experiments using different parameterizations that explore perturbations to the prescription of initial basal melt, the basal traction coefficient and the ice stiffening factor. We find that the response of the ASE to ocean temperature forcing is highly dependent on the parameter fields obtained in the initialization procedure, where the sensitivity of the ASE ice streams to the sub-ice-shelf melt forcing is dependent on the choice of parameter set. Accounting for ice sheet model parameter uncertainty results in a projected range in sea level equivalent contribution from the ASE of between −0.02 and 12.1 cm by the end of the 21st century. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. V. Alevropoulos-Borrill I. J. Nias A. J. Payne N. R. Golledge R. J. Bingham |
author_facet |
A. V. Alevropoulos-Borrill I. J. Nias A. J. Payne N. R. Golledge R. J. Bingham |
author_sort |
A. V. Alevropoulos-Borrill |
title |
Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 |
title_short |
Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 |
title_full |
Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 |
title_fullStr |
Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 |
title_sort |
ocean-forced evolution of the amundsen sea catchment, west antarctica, by 2100 |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020 https://doaj.org/article/c7f058c1137647f6ab306b4fbb14d8a3 |
geographic |
West Antarctica Amundsen Sea |
geographic_facet |
West Antarctica Amundsen Sea |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 14, Pp 1245-1258 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/14/1245/2020/tc-14-1245-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/c7f058c1137647f6ab306b4fbb14d8a3 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1245 |
op_container_end_page |
1258 |
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1766376225819852800 |