Combining climatic projections and dispersal ability: a method for estimating the responses of sandfly vector species to climate change.
BACKGROUND: In the Old World, sandfly species of the genus Phlebotomus are known vectors of Leishmania, Bartonella and several viruses. Recent sandfly catches and autochthonous cases of leishmaniasis hint on spreading tendencies of the vectors towards Central Europe. However, studies addressing pote...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c7508236f2434a22bb3e8f397db74313 2023-05-15T15:16:39+02:00 Combining climatic projections and dispersal ability: a method for estimating the responses of sandfly vector species to climate change. Dominik Fischer Philipp Moeller Stephanie M Thomas Torsten J Naucke Carl Beierkuhnlein 2011-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407 https://doaj.org/article/c7508236f2434a22bb3e8f397db74313 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3226457?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407 https://doaj.org/article/c7508236f2434a22bb3e8f397db74313 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 5, Iss 11, p e1407 (2011) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2011 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407 2023-01-08T01:31:10Z BACKGROUND: In the Old World, sandfly species of the genus Phlebotomus are known vectors of Leishmania, Bartonella and several viruses. Recent sandfly catches and autochthonous cases of leishmaniasis hint on spreading tendencies of the vectors towards Central Europe. However, studies addressing potential future distribution of sandflies in the light of a changing European climate are missing. METHODOLOGY: Here, we modelled bioclimatic envelopes using MaxEnt for five species with proven or assumed vector competence for Leishmania infantum, which are either predominantly located in (south-) western (Phlebotomus ariasi, P. mascittii and P. perniciosus) or south-eastern Europe (P. neglectus and P. perfiliewi). The determined bioclimatic envelopes were transferred to two climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) for Central Europe (Austria, Germany and Switzerland) using data of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. We detected the most likely way of natural dispersal ("least-cost path") for each species and hence determined the accessibility of potential future climatically suitable habitats by integrating landscape features, projected changes in climatic suitability and wind speed. RESULTS AND RELEVANCE: Results indicate that the Central European climate will become increasingly suitable especially for those vector species with a current south-western focus of distribution. In general, the highest suitability of Central Europe is projected for all species in the second half of the 21st century, except for P. perfiliewi. Nevertheless, we show that sandflies will hardly be able to occupy their climatically suitable habitats entirely, due to their limited natural dispersal ability. A northward spread of species with south-eastern focus of distribution may be constrained but not completely avoided by the Alps. Our results can be used to install specific monitoring systems to the projected risk zones of potential sandfly establishment. This is urgently needed for adaptation and coping strategies against the emerging spread ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 5 11 e1407 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Dominik Fischer Philipp Moeller Stephanie M Thomas Torsten J Naucke Carl Beierkuhnlein Combining climatic projections and dispersal ability: a method for estimating the responses of sandfly vector species to climate change. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
BACKGROUND: In the Old World, sandfly species of the genus Phlebotomus are known vectors of Leishmania, Bartonella and several viruses. Recent sandfly catches and autochthonous cases of leishmaniasis hint on spreading tendencies of the vectors towards Central Europe. However, studies addressing potential future distribution of sandflies in the light of a changing European climate are missing. METHODOLOGY: Here, we modelled bioclimatic envelopes using MaxEnt for five species with proven or assumed vector competence for Leishmania infantum, which are either predominantly located in (south-) western (Phlebotomus ariasi, P. mascittii and P. perniciosus) or south-eastern Europe (P. neglectus and P. perfiliewi). The determined bioclimatic envelopes were transferred to two climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) for Central Europe (Austria, Germany and Switzerland) using data of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. We detected the most likely way of natural dispersal ("least-cost path") for each species and hence determined the accessibility of potential future climatically suitable habitats by integrating landscape features, projected changes in climatic suitability and wind speed. RESULTS AND RELEVANCE: Results indicate that the Central European climate will become increasingly suitable especially for those vector species with a current south-western focus of distribution. In general, the highest suitability of Central Europe is projected for all species in the second half of the 21st century, except for P. perfiliewi. Nevertheless, we show that sandflies will hardly be able to occupy their climatically suitable habitats entirely, due to their limited natural dispersal ability. A northward spread of species with south-eastern focus of distribution may be constrained but not completely avoided by the Alps. Our results can be used to install specific monitoring systems to the projected risk zones of potential sandfly establishment. This is urgently needed for adaptation and coping strategies against the emerging spread ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Dominik Fischer Philipp Moeller Stephanie M Thomas Torsten J Naucke Carl Beierkuhnlein |
author_facet |
Dominik Fischer Philipp Moeller Stephanie M Thomas Torsten J Naucke Carl Beierkuhnlein |
author_sort |
Dominik Fischer |
title |
Combining climatic projections and dispersal ability: a method for estimating the responses of sandfly vector species to climate change. |
title_short |
Combining climatic projections and dispersal ability: a method for estimating the responses of sandfly vector species to climate change. |
title_full |
Combining climatic projections and dispersal ability: a method for estimating the responses of sandfly vector species to climate change. |
title_fullStr |
Combining climatic projections and dispersal ability: a method for estimating the responses of sandfly vector species to climate change. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Combining climatic projections and dispersal ability: a method for estimating the responses of sandfly vector species to climate change. |
title_sort |
combining climatic projections and dispersal ability: a method for estimating the responses of sandfly vector species to climate change. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407 https://doaj.org/article/c7508236f2434a22bb3e8f397db74313 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 5, Iss 11, p e1407 (2011) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3226457?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407 https://doaj.org/article/c7508236f2434a22bb3e8f397db74313 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407 |
container_title |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
e1407 |
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1766346946707980288 |