Persistent cold air outbreaks over North America in a warming climate
This study examines future changes of cold air outbreaks (CAOs) using a multi-model ensemble of global climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and high resolution regional climate simulations. Overall, climate models agree on a dip in CAO duration across North Amer...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c6c29a82befa431493f093508b45dd82 2023-09-05T13:11:31+02:00 Persistent cold air outbreaks over North America in a warming climate Yang Gao L Ruby Leung Jian Lu Giacomo Masato 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044001 https://doaj.org/article/c6c29a82befa431493f093508b45dd82 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044001 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044001 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/c6c29a82befa431493f093508b45dd82 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 10, Iss 4, p 044001 (2015) cold air outbreaks multi-model projections dynamical and thermodynamical modulations temperature skewness Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044001 2023-08-13T00:37:54Z This study examines future changes of cold air outbreaks (CAOs) using a multi-model ensemble of global climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and high resolution regional climate simulations. Overall, climate models agree on a dip in CAO duration across North America, but the percentage change is consistently smaller from western Canada to the upper mid-western US with historically more frequent CAO. By decomposing the changes of the probability density function of daily surface temperature into changes due to mean warming and changes in standard deviation (std) and skewness/higher order moments, the contributions of each factor to CAO changes are quantified. Results show that CAO changes can be explained largely by the mean warming, but the decrease in temperature std contributes to about 20% reduction of CAO from Alaska to northeastern US and eastern Canada possibly due to the Arctic amplification and weakening of storm track. A thermodynamical modulation of the skewness called the ‘0 °C mode’ effect is found to operate prominently along the 0 °C isotherm hemispherically and reduce CAO in western and northeastern US with winter snow cover by up to 10%. This effect also produces a manifold increase in CAO events over the Arctic sea ice. An increased frequency in atmospheric blocking also contributes to increases in CAO duration over Alaska and the Arctic region. Regional simulations revealed more contributions of existing snowpack to CAO in the near future over the Rocky Mountain, southwestern US, and Great Lakes areas through surface albedo effects. Overall, the multi-model projections emphasize that cold extremes do not completely disappear in a warming climate. Concomitant with the relatively smaller reduction in CAO events in northwestern US, the top five most extreme CAO events may still occur, and wind chill will continue to have societal impacts in that region. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Sea ice Alaska Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Canada Environmental Research Letters 10 4 044001 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
cold air outbreaks multi-model projections dynamical and thermodynamical modulations temperature skewness Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
cold air outbreaks multi-model projections dynamical and thermodynamical modulations temperature skewness Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Yang Gao L Ruby Leung Jian Lu Giacomo Masato Persistent cold air outbreaks over North America in a warming climate |
topic_facet |
cold air outbreaks multi-model projections dynamical and thermodynamical modulations temperature skewness Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
This study examines future changes of cold air outbreaks (CAOs) using a multi-model ensemble of global climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and high resolution regional climate simulations. Overall, climate models agree on a dip in CAO duration across North America, but the percentage change is consistently smaller from western Canada to the upper mid-western US with historically more frequent CAO. By decomposing the changes of the probability density function of daily surface temperature into changes due to mean warming and changes in standard deviation (std) and skewness/higher order moments, the contributions of each factor to CAO changes are quantified. Results show that CAO changes can be explained largely by the mean warming, but the decrease in temperature std contributes to about 20% reduction of CAO from Alaska to northeastern US and eastern Canada possibly due to the Arctic amplification and weakening of storm track. A thermodynamical modulation of the skewness called the ‘0 °C mode’ effect is found to operate prominently along the 0 °C isotherm hemispherically and reduce CAO in western and northeastern US with winter snow cover by up to 10%. This effect also produces a manifold increase in CAO events over the Arctic sea ice. An increased frequency in atmospheric blocking also contributes to increases in CAO duration over Alaska and the Arctic region. Regional simulations revealed more contributions of existing snowpack to CAO in the near future over the Rocky Mountain, southwestern US, and Great Lakes areas through surface albedo effects. Overall, the multi-model projections emphasize that cold extremes do not completely disappear in a warming climate. Concomitant with the relatively smaller reduction in CAO events in northwestern US, the top five most extreme CAO events may still occur, and wind chill will continue to have societal impacts in that region. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yang Gao L Ruby Leung Jian Lu Giacomo Masato |
author_facet |
Yang Gao L Ruby Leung Jian Lu Giacomo Masato |
author_sort |
Yang Gao |
title |
Persistent cold air outbreaks over North America in a warming climate |
title_short |
Persistent cold air outbreaks over North America in a warming climate |
title_full |
Persistent cold air outbreaks over North America in a warming climate |
title_fullStr |
Persistent cold air outbreaks over North America in a warming climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Persistent cold air outbreaks over North America in a warming climate |
title_sort |
persistent cold air outbreaks over north america in a warming climate |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044001 https://doaj.org/article/c6c29a82befa431493f093508b45dd82 |
geographic |
Arctic Canada |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada |
genre |
albedo Arctic Sea ice Alaska |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Sea ice Alaska |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 10, Iss 4, p 044001 (2015) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044001 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044001 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/c6c29a82befa431493f093508b45dd82 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044001 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
044001 |
_version_ |
1776204978409439232 |