Constraining the First Year of Ice‐Free Arctic: Importance of Regional Perspective
Abstract The ice‐free Arctic in summer not only symbolizes human‐induced climate change but also highlights the need to critically consider climate change adaptation policies. To constrain projections when the Arctic Ocean will first become ice‐free, studies have typically combined the historical ob...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c5d32bd2f3b14668a8d2cc9c21dce4b0 2023-11-12T04:10:31+01:00 Constraining the First Year of Ice‐Free Arctic: Importance of Regional Perspective Seungmok Paik Daehyun Kim Soon‐Il An Yoo‐Geun Ham 2023-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003313 https://doaj.org/article/c5d32bd2f3b14668a8d2cc9c21dce4b0 EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003313 https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277 2328-4277 doi:10.1029/2022EF003313 https://doaj.org/article/c5d32bd2f3b14668a8d2cc9c21dce4b0 Earth's Future, Vol 11, Iss 10, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) Arctic sea ice ice free global warming central Arctic sea ice September sea ice emergent constraint Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003313 2023-10-29T00:35:23Z Abstract The ice‐free Arctic in summer not only symbolizes human‐induced climate change but also highlights the need to critically consider climate change adaptation policies. To constrain projections when the Arctic Ocean will first become ice‐free, studies have typically combined the historical observations of the Arctic sea ice area (SIA) with future emission scenario simulations. However, these studies primarily relied on the historical climatology and trend of the Arctic SIA, without considering regional variations. In this study, we analyze September SIA projections using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations, while considering Arctic sub‐regions. Additionally, we assess the impact of incorporating sub‐region September SIA when constraining the first year of ice‐free Arctic in September. CMIP6 models generally overestimate the historical September SIA decreasing trend in the central Arctic, whereas they underestimate this trend in the surrounding shelf seas. The central Arctic, where the region expected to retain sea ice for the longest period in the future, holds particular significance for projecting when the Arctic will first become ice‐free. Consequently, when we employ the historical trend of September SIA in the central Arctic as a constraint, observationally‐constrained projections suggest a delay of 12 years (2056) for the first ice‐free September compared to raw/unconstrained projections (2044 in model average) under a high‐emission scenario. These findings underscore the importance of considering model biases in central Arctic SIA when constraining projections of the first year of ice‐free Arctic, which may occur later than previously projected in many studies. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Global warming Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Earth's Future 11 10 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic sea ice ice free global warming central Arctic sea ice September sea ice emergent constraint Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic sea ice ice free global warming central Arctic sea ice September sea ice emergent constraint Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 Seungmok Paik Daehyun Kim Soon‐Il An Yoo‐Geun Ham Constraining the First Year of Ice‐Free Arctic: Importance of Regional Perspective |
topic_facet |
Arctic sea ice ice free global warming central Arctic sea ice September sea ice emergent constraint Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Abstract The ice‐free Arctic in summer not only symbolizes human‐induced climate change but also highlights the need to critically consider climate change adaptation policies. To constrain projections when the Arctic Ocean will first become ice‐free, studies have typically combined the historical observations of the Arctic sea ice area (SIA) with future emission scenario simulations. However, these studies primarily relied on the historical climatology and trend of the Arctic SIA, without considering regional variations. In this study, we analyze September SIA projections using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations, while considering Arctic sub‐regions. Additionally, we assess the impact of incorporating sub‐region September SIA when constraining the first year of ice‐free Arctic in September. CMIP6 models generally overestimate the historical September SIA decreasing trend in the central Arctic, whereas they underestimate this trend in the surrounding shelf seas. The central Arctic, where the region expected to retain sea ice for the longest period in the future, holds particular significance for projecting when the Arctic will first become ice‐free. Consequently, when we employ the historical trend of September SIA in the central Arctic as a constraint, observationally‐constrained projections suggest a delay of 12 years (2056) for the first ice‐free September compared to raw/unconstrained projections (2044 in model average) under a high‐emission scenario. These findings underscore the importance of considering model biases in central Arctic SIA when constraining projections of the first year of ice‐free Arctic, which may occur later than previously projected in many studies. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Seungmok Paik Daehyun Kim Soon‐Il An Yoo‐Geun Ham |
author_facet |
Seungmok Paik Daehyun Kim Soon‐Il An Yoo‐Geun Ham |
author_sort |
Seungmok Paik |
title |
Constraining the First Year of Ice‐Free Arctic: Importance of Regional Perspective |
title_short |
Constraining the First Year of Ice‐Free Arctic: Importance of Regional Perspective |
title_full |
Constraining the First Year of Ice‐Free Arctic: Importance of Regional Perspective |
title_fullStr |
Constraining the First Year of Ice‐Free Arctic: Importance of Regional Perspective |
title_full_unstemmed |
Constraining the First Year of Ice‐Free Arctic: Importance of Regional Perspective |
title_sort |
constraining the first year of ice‐free arctic: importance of regional perspective |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003313 https://doaj.org/article/c5d32bd2f3b14668a8d2cc9c21dce4b0 |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
Earth's Future, Vol 11, Iss 10, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003313 https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277 2328-4277 doi:10.1029/2022EF003313 https://doaj.org/article/c5d32bd2f3b14668a8d2cc9c21dce4b0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003313 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
10 |
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1782329940735164416 |