PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments
Circum-Arctic permafrost stores large amounts of frozen carbon that must be maintained to avoid catastrophic climate change. Solar geoengineering has the potential to cool the Arctic surface by increasing planetary albedo but could also reduce tundra productivity. Here, we improve the data-constrain...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c57134cb564a4bf88f45e24a0fd13333 2023-05-15T13:11:41+02:00 PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments A. Liu J. C. Moore Y. Chen 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-39-2023 https://doaj.org/article/c57134cb564a4bf88f45e24a0fd13333 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/39/2023/esd-14-39-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-14-39-2023 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/c57134cb564a4bf88f45e24a0fd13333 Earth System Dynamics, Vol 14, Pp 39-53 (2023) Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-39-2023 2023-01-29T01:30:08Z Circum-Arctic permafrost stores large amounts of frozen carbon that must be maintained to avoid catastrophic climate change. Solar geoengineering has the potential to cool the Arctic surface by increasing planetary albedo but could also reduce tundra productivity. Here, we improve the data-constrained PInc-PanTher model of permafrost carbon storage by including estimates of plant productivity and rhizosphere priming on soil carbon. Six earth system models are used to drive the model, running G6solar (solar dimming) and G6sulfur (stratospheric sulfate aerosols) experiments, which reduce radiative forcing from SSP5-8.5 (no mitigation) to SSP2-4.5 (substantive mitigation) levels. By 2100, simulations indicate a loss of 9.2 ± 0.4 million km 2 (mean ± standard error) of permafrost area and 81 ± 8 Pg of soil carbon under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. In comparison, under SSP2-4.5, G6solar, and G6sulfur, permafrost area loss would be mitigated by approximately 39 %, 37 %, and 34 % and soil carbon loss by 42 %, 54 %, and 47 %, respectively, relative to SSP5-8.5. Uncertainties in permafrost soil C loss estimates arise mainly from changes in vegetation productivity. Increased carbon flux from vegetation to soil raises soil C storage, while the priming effects of root exudates lowers it, with a net mitigating effect on soil C loss. Despite model differences, the protective effects of G6solar and G6sulfur on permafrost area and soil C storage are consistent and significant for all ESMs. G6 experiments mitigate ∼ <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M11" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn><mo>/</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">3</mn></mrow></math> <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20pt" height="14pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="24cd820928a87a23fd3890478006b780"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="esd-14-39-2023-ie00001.svg" ... Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Climate change permafrost Tundra Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Earth System Dynamics 14 1 39 53 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
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Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 A. Liu J. C. Moore Y. Chen PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments |
topic_facet |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
description |
Circum-Arctic permafrost stores large amounts of frozen carbon that must be maintained to avoid catastrophic climate change. Solar geoengineering has the potential to cool the Arctic surface by increasing planetary albedo but could also reduce tundra productivity. Here, we improve the data-constrained PInc-PanTher model of permafrost carbon storage by including estimates of plant productivity and rhizosphere priming on soil carbon. Six earth system models are used to drive the model, running G6solar (solar dimming) and G6sulfur (stratospheric sulfate aerosols) experiments, which reduce radiative forcing from SSP5-8.5 (no mitigation) to SSP2-4.5 (substantive mitigation) levels. By 2100, simulations indicate a loss of 9.2 ± 0.4 million km 2 (mean ± standard error) of permafrost area and 81 ± 8 Pg of soil carbon under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. In comparison, under SSP2-4.5, G6solar, and G6sulfur, permafrost area loss would be mitigated by approximately 39 %, 37 %, and 34 % and soil carbon loss by 42 %, 54 %, and 47 %, respectively, relative to SSP5-8.5. Uncertainties in permafrost soil C loss estimates arise mainly from changes in vegetation productivity. Increased carbon flux from vegetation to soil raises soil C storage, while the priming effects of root exudates lowers it, with a net mitigating effect on soil C loss. Despite model differences, the protective effects of G6solar and G6sulfur on permafrost area and soil C storage are consistent and significant for all ESMs. G6 experiments mitigate ∼ <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M11" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn><mo>/</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">3</mn></mrow></math> <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20pt" height="14pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="24cd820928a87a23fd3890478006b780"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="esd-14-39-2023-ie00001.svg" ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. Liu J. C. Moore Y. Chen |
author_facet |
A. Liu J. C. Moore Y. Chen |
author_sort |
A. Liu |
title |
PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments |
title_short |
PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments |
title_full |
PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments |
title_fullStr |
PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments |
title_full_unstemmed |
PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments |
title_sort |
pinc-panther estimates of arctic permafrost soil carbon under the geomip g6solar and g6sulfur experiments |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-39-2023 https://doaj.org/article/c57134cb564a4bf88f45e24a0fd13333 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
albedo Arctic Climate change permafrost Tundra |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Climate change permafrost Tundra |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics, Vol 14, Pp 39-53 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/39/2023/esd-14-39-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-14-39-2023 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/c57134cb564a4bf88f45e24a0fd13333 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-39-2023 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
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14 |
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1 |
container_start_page |
39 |
op_container_end_page |
53 |
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1766248495541387264 |