A Study of False Alarms of a Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming by Real-Time Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts for the 2017/2018 Northern Winter
This study investigates false alarms of a major sudden stratospheric warming (MSSW) by real-time subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts system for the 2017/2018 Northern Hemisphere winter season. The analysis reveals two false alarm cases in t...
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MDPI AG
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080875 https://doaj.org/article/c55b4c67c98f48dc8eb829508e4e88e7 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c55b4c67c98f48dc8eb829508e4e88e7 2023-05-15T16:29:44+02:00 A Study of False Alarms of a Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming by Real-Time Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts for the 2017/2018 Northern Winter Masakazu Taguchi 2020-08-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080875 https://doaj.org/article/c55b4c67c98f48dc8eb829508e4e88e7 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/8/875 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos11080875 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/c55b4c67c98f48dc8eb829508e4e88e7 Atmosphere, Vol 11, Iss 875, p 875 (2020) major sudden stratospheric warmings subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts false alarms Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080875 2022-12-31T09:21:43Z This study investigates false alarms of a major sudden stratospheric warming (MSSW) by real-time subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts system for the 2017/2018 Northern Hemisphere winter season. The analysis reveals two false alarm cases in the season, one in early December and the other in early February. Each case is characterized by ensembles of which a considerable part of the members (MSSW members) show an MSSW, that is, reversal of the zonal mean zonal wind in the extratropical stratosphere on similar calendar dates. Ensemble forecasts that are initialized earlier or later basically lack an MSSW, demonstrating clear intraseasonal variability in the frequency of forecasted MSSWs. For each false alarm case, the MSSW member mean field shows equatorward displacement of the polar vortex around the onset date. For both cases, the MSSW members accompany stronger wave activity in the lower stratosphere than other non-MSSW members and reanalysis data. They are further associated with higher geopotential height than the non-MSSW members, in the upper troposphere over northeastern Canada and Greenland before the first case, and lower height over northeastern Eurasia before the second case. These are located over the ridge and trough, respectively, of the climatological planetary wave of zonal wave number one, and are consistent with the increased wave activity. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Canada Greenland Atmosphere 11 8 875 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
major sudden stratospheric warmings subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts false alarms Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
major sudden stratospheric warmings subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts false alarms Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Masakazu Taguchi A Study of False Alarms of a Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming by Real-Time Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts for the 2017/2018 Northern Winter |
topic_facet |
major sudden stratospheric warmings subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts false alarms Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
This study investigates false alarms of a major sudden stratospheric warming (MSSW) by real-time subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts system for the 2017/2018 Northern Hemisphere winter season. The analysis reveals two false alarm cases in the season, one in early December and the other in early February. Each case is characterized by ensembles of which a considerable part of the members (MSSW members) show an MSSW, that is, reversal of the zonal mean zonal wind in the extratropical stratosphere on similar calendar dates. Ensemble forecasts that are initialized earlier or later basically lack an MSSW, demonstrating clear intraseasonal variability in the frequency of forecasted MSSWs. For each false alarm case, the MSSW member mean field shows equatorward displacement of the polar vortex around the onset date. For both cases, the MSSW members accompany stronger wave activity in the lower stratosphere than other non-MSSW members and reanalysis data. They are further associated with higher geopotential height than the non-MSSW members, in the upper troposphere over northeastern Canada and Greenland before the first case, and lower height over northeastern Eurasia before the second case. These are located over the ridge and trough, respectively, of the climatological planetary wave of zonal wave number one, and are consistent with the increased wave activity. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Masakazu Taguchi |
author_facet |
Masakazu Taguchi |
author_sort |
Masakazu Taguchi |
title |
A Study of False Alarms of a Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming by Real-Time Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts for the 2017/2018 Northern Winter |
title_short |
A Study of False Alarms of a Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming by Real-Time Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts for the 2017/2018 Northern Winter |
title_full |
A Study of False Alarms of a Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming by Real-Time Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts for the 2017/2018 Northern Winter |
title_fullStr |
A Study of False Alarms of a Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming by Real-Time Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts for the 2017/2018 Northern Winter |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Study of False Alarms of a Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming by Real-Time Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts for the 2017/2018 Northern Winter |
title_sort |
study of false alarms of a major sudden stratospheric warming by real-time subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts for the 2017/2018 northern winter |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080875 https://doaj.org/article/c55b4c67c98f48dc8eb829508e4e88e7 |
geographic |
Canada Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Canada Greenland |
genre |
Greenland |
genre_facet |
Greenland |
op_source |
Atmosphere, Vol 11, Iss 875, p 875 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/8/875 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos11080875 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/c55b4c67c98f48dc8eb829508e4e88e7 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080875 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
875 |
_version_ |
1766019438338899968 |